Wenming Shi

Themes and tools of maritime transport research during 2000-2014

ABSTRACT This study examines how maritime transport has been researched through a comprehensive review of papers published in 19 transportation journals over the period 2000–2014. Systematic investigation shows that Maritime Policy & Management plays a prominent role in publishing maritime transport research. At the same time, ‘shipping’ is a dominant research area, with ‘port management, service, performance, efficiency and competitiveness’; ‘shipping market, industry, freight rate and economic impact’; and ‘terminal studies’ as the most popular topics. Nevertheless, few efforts have investigated ‘shipping finance’; ‘shipping service’; or ‘port risk and security.’ Since 2000, the use of quantitative analysis techniques has steadily increased in maritime transport to help participants make decisions scientifically. We here present the major data analysis techniques and highlight some limitations regarding their application. Thus, we provide a better understanding of how maritime transport research has been undertaken in a quantitative manner.

Influence of local government on port investment: implications of China’s decentralized port governance system

ABSTRACT The pursuit of better performance by the local government can influence the investment decision-making related to port expansion. This paper compares the ceilings at which the port enterprise and the local government would stop making investments. To achieve this, the benefits to the port enterprise and the local government are measured over a given time period. An empirical study investigating how a port would respond if a rival port uses a type of capacity investment strategy is conducted for two major ports in Liaoning. The time at which the local government and the port enterprise would stop making investments and the final equilibrium are developed using the data from 2010. From the empirical results, it was found that investment in port capacity contributes greatly to the local government’s performance. Meanwhile, different investment ceilings are discovered for the port enterprise and the local government. This research is meaningful for discussing the institutional relationship between the local government and the port enterprise in China’s current decentralized port governance system. This paper is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitled ‘Port expansion mechanism in the context of political achievement of local government: a special phenomenon in China’ presented at International Association of Maritime Economists 2012 Taipei Conference during 5th September –8th September.

Spillover effects and dynamic correlations between spot and forward tanker freight markets

Monitoring and analysing information transmission across different shipping markets is an important tool for participants to predict shipping freight rates, design portfolio investments and manage freight rate risks. The purpose of this article is to investigate spillover effects and dynamic correlations between shipping spot and derivatives markets (tanker forward freight agreement, FFA) under the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity framework. Empirical results show that spillovers in returns are unilateral from one-month FFA to spot markets, while they are bilateral between one-month and two-month FFA markets. However, insignificant mean spillovers between spot and two-month FFA markets are found. Volatility spillover effects among one-month FFA, two-month FFA and spot freight markets are bilateral. By analysing the correlation between different markets, highly persistent and significantly volatile correlations are found. Moreover, time-varying correlations between one-month and two-month FFA markets are much higher than those of between spot and each FFA market. Results from this article will be helpful to improve participants’ predictions of return, volatility and correlation, which are significant for determining hedge strategies. In addition, the management of freight rate risk and portfolio investment can also benefit from the empirical results obtained in this article.

The impact of crude oil price on the tanker market

The demand for crude oil transport services is a derived demand, which is dependent on international trade of crude oil and crude oil carriers transport crude oil from producer regions to consumer regions. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between fluctuations in oil prices and the freight market (hereinafter referred to as ‘the tanker market’) using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model. Referring to Kilian and Parks method of structural decomposition of fluctuations in crude oil prices, crude oil price shocks are classified into crude oil supply shocks and crude oil non-supply shocks in this study. Also, the response of the tanker market to different shocks is examined using the impulse response analysis. The empirical results provide evidence that crude oil supply shocks have significant effects on the contemporaneous tanker market. However, the impact of crude oil non-supply shocks is insignificant. In addition, the accumulated responses of the tanker market to crude oil non-supply shocks and crude oil supply shocks are positive but they are far lower than other shocks to the tanker market. Empirical results from this research are consistent with the fact of high crude oil tanker freight rates but low profits for tanker operators.

A cross-region analysis of the output elasticity of transport investment in China

This paper aims to investigate the linkage between transport investment and economic development. To achieve it, the contribution of transport investment stock to economic growth was measured using provincial panel data from 1990 to 2010 in China. Empirical result showed the contribution was indeed various across regions. The greatest contribution was found in the central region, followed by the western region and then the eastern region. The cross-region comparison indicated economic returns of extra transport investment were generally positive but their degrees were quite different in different development stages. More specifically, a large contribution was found in pre-policy and deepening stages for the eastern and western regions while it was found in pre-policy and primary stages for the central region. A moderate contribution was seen in deepening stage for the central region while it was seen in primary and expansion stages for the western region. Accordingly, China needs to allocate more transport investments in the central region due to its higher economic returns and important connection position. Additionally, as an extension, the positive impact of transport investment on regional economic growth in China can be taken as an experiment to be replicated by other developing or less-developed nations.

Logistics as a driving force for development under the Belt and Road Initiative – the Chinese model for developing countries

ABSTRACT An important objective of “the Belt and Road Initiative” is to promote the economic growth of countries in the region. China’s successful development experience, proposed in the initial stage of reform, can be summarised as “Looking for development, building the highway first”. This study is the first to evaluate whether logistics infrastructure has indeed contributed to economic growth by employing an error correction model with panel data from 2003 to 2014. In addition, we compare the influence levels of different sectors of logistics infrastructure in different regions, i.e. developed and developing regions. We focus on developing regions as they represent good development experiences for developing countries in the Silk Road Economic Belt. For developing regions, we find that the most influential factors are telecommunication and airway transportation, which should be the foci of attention in order to promote economic growth and reduce inter-region economic inequalities. The research confirms that logistics is indeed a driving force for economic growth in China, and that the contributions of specific sectors can be a useful reference for developing countries to determine prioritisation of investment in different logistics sectors across regions.

Impact of unexpected events on inbound tourism demand modeling: evidence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in South Korea

ABSTRACT This paper attempts to evaluate how South Korea’s inbound tourist arrivals from China have been affected by the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak. Using quarterly data, the autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) is performed to capture the influence of the MERS outbreak. Estimation results of the general ADLM reveal that the MERS outbreak has a significant adverse impact on the total inbound tourist arrivals from China, as well as on tour arrivals; however, for business, official, and other types of tourist arrivals, its influence is insignificant. Furthermore, the error correction model is estimated to demonstrate the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics among the underlying variables. Our analysis not only provides empirical evidence on evaluating the impact of the MERS outbreak on different types of tourism demand, but also identifies main determinants and suggests appropriate model specifications for each type of tourist arrivals.

Evolution of green shipping research: themes and methods

ABSTRACT Over the past 30 years, there have been growing concerns on the environmental impacts of maritime transportation, which have attracted great attention from both academia and practitioners. Understanding developments in this area can help guide future research. We conducted a comprehensive review of green shipping research, comprising 213 papers published in transportation journals in SSCI of 2017 over the period 1988–2017. We find that research on green shipping has increased greatly since 2012, accounting for 77.5% of the reviewed papers. The main focus today on green shipping was on air pollution, and the classification of green shipping practice, such as technical measures, operational options, market-based measures, and recycling and reusing, is becoming clear. According to the existing studies, future research on green shipping must strengthen technology research to not only solve practical problems, but also to establish a theoretical green shipping system. Moreover, researchers from different countries could cooperate with each other to give effective suggestions on setting standards and laws of green shipping. Finally, we identify the future research themes will focus on setting up green shipping system and legislation and policy.

Dynamics and interdependencies among different shipping freight markets

ABSTRACT An appropriate description of freight rate behaviors is important to maritime forecasting and portfolio diversification in shipping freight markets. We employ general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity-copula models to capture the dynamics and interdependencies among shipping freight rates. Using weekly data from 5 January 2002 to 24 March 2018, our main findings are first, Granger causality tests confirm the presence of one-way causality running from the dry bulk and the clean tanker freight rate returns to the container and the dirty tanker freight rate returns, respectively. Second, volatility persistence exists in individual shipping freight market and, in particular, it is much less persistent in the clean tanker freight market. Third, nonlinear dynamic interdependencies among freight rate returns are captured by performing time-varying copulas. The results not only deepen our understanding of freight rate behaviors but also offer new insights into portfolio diversification and risk management in the shipping freight markets.