Khalid Saeed

Desman: A dynamic model for managing civil engineering design projects

Abstract Traditional project management tools are useful in managing design projects. However, incorporating “soft data” into tools like the critical part method (CPM) and bar charts is problematic. They are also best used for bottoms to top management and are, therefore, not very effective for macro managing projects. A system dynamic model can improve the current practices and reduce the problems in design projects when used as a tool for macro management. A model was developed for the management of detailed design process of a civil engineering project. The model consists of four interrelated subsystems: human resources, design production, controlling and planning. Two sets of data were used to test the model. Some policies and scenarios were then explored to gain insight into the models behaviour and to seek alternatives for better management. The experimentation showed the following policy hierarchy. In terms of meeting scheduled time, the effectiveness of policies is in the order: (1) progress control, (2) manpower allocation, (3) estimation of workload and (4) realization of underestimated work. If the goal is to minimize labour-days expended or to reduce the cost of design, the effectiveness of policies is in the order: (1) manpower allocation, (2) progress control, (3) estimation of workload and (4) realization of underestimated work. As such, good project control and early perception of real progress are needed to ensure efficient resource allocation and on-time completion. This requires creation of a project organization which is able to recognize and process changing information on those issues.

An attempt to determine criteria for sensible rates of use of material resources

Abstract This article uses a systems framework to search for criteria for determining the rates of use of material resources. The existing criteria, which are found in the neoclassical economic theory and the environmental movement, are reexamined, and their limitations are discussed. The criteria for material resource use identified by this article emphasize that resources be selected from the environment on the basis of their regeneration time constant and consumed in a way that should maintain adequate organizational slack in the system. Based on these criteria, geological information about material resources appears to take precedence as the basis for determining their rates of use over their economic feasibility and efficiency of use.

Articulating Developmental Problems for Policy Intervention: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

Developmental problems are invariably perceived as dysfunctional existing conditions that must be changed. This often removes a policy from the factors that created a problem in the first instance. Problem articulation for policy intervention as practiced in system dynamics modeling requires, on the other hand, that a problem is viewed as an internal behavioral tendency found in a system so its causes can be determined before a corrective action is initiated, which is presented in this article as an effective way to define developmental problems. To articulate a problem, a pattern representing the problem history, called a reference mode, must be constructed before developing a model that serves as a laboratory to understand the problem and create a policy design for system change. A reference mode is, however, different from a precise time history in that it represents a pattern incorporating only a slice of the history. It requires several learning cycles to construct a reference mode from time history. A learning process based on a well-known model of experiential learning is used to describe the construction of a reference mode, which is illustrated at length by revisiting the illusive problem of food security.

Technological development in a dual economy: Alternative policy levers for economic development

Abstract Although technological development is widely recognized as a function of human ingenuity and innovation and seen by many development scientists as an important means for achieving economic development, its actual use as a policy lever remains largely underutilized, since the process of its implementation is unclear. This paper attempts to identify operational instruments for supporting technological development so it can be incorporated easily into the development plans. A system dynamics model of a dual economic system incorporating both the behavioral responses of the economic actors to competition and their ability to innovate is developed. This model is used as an experimental apparatus to search for appropriate technological development policies to support economic growth and change income distribution. Policies to promote competition among the monopolistic formal firms while simultaneously providing positive assistance to the competitive informal firms appear to offer promising alternatives to the traditional fiscal policy levers mainly affecting prices and factor costs.

Government support for economic agendas in developing countries: A behavioral model

Abstract A behavioral model of the roles played by the key actors in the political system of a developing country is developed and experimented with to understand circular cause and effect relationships shaping government commitment to economic development agendas. The model shows that an authoritarian government, whether compassionate or otherwise, will be unable to provide continued support for an economic agenda, since its need to increase control will eventually take priority over the need to increase public welfare.

Stability in a Superpower-Dominated Global Economic System

This paper provides an example of a system dynamics model that incorporates soft variables. The model examines the challenges that a superpower faces while maintaining its position in the global economic system. The effects on aggregate welfare of the population at home and abroad, as well as, issues of sustaining authority in the long run are explored through experimentation with a computer model. This theory is an extension of the framework developed by Saeed (1990), which was used to understand political instability and the failure of the government to stay committed to welfare agendas in the developing countries. The present model captures the interaction between several institutional actors involved with the economic and the governance systems. They include the public, the authoritarian regime, the reformist movements that seek change within the existing framework, and the dissident movements that turn to violent methods.

Dynastic Cycle: A Generic Structure Describing Resource Allocation in Political Economies, Markets and Firms

A generic system embodies basic principles and insights that are common to a set of diverse cases and situations. This paper presents a new generic system that we name the dynastic cycle structure. It is based on a stylized model of events from the Chinese history. The model describes resource allocation between social, asocial and control uses in political economies, markets and firms that experience cyclical behaviour and homeostasis symbolizing low levels of performance. Numerical simulations with the model are used to understand the internal dynamics and to test several policy scenarios.

A re-evaluation of the effort to alleviate poverty and hunger

Abstract This paper re-examines the broad public policies implemented in the developing countries to alleviate poverty and hunger. The analysis is carried out through computer simulation experiments using a generic system dynamics model of an agrarian economy which determines income distribution and food adequacy endogeneously but treats government policy as exogenous. It is suggested that policies such as agricultural development, financial and technical assistance for the poor and population control, that directly address the symptoms of the problems of poverty and hunger, may be defeated in the long run since socio-technical arrangements of the system favor persistence of poverty and vulnerability to food shortage. These policies will, however, be successful if concomitant efforts are also made to discourage absentee ownership through fiscal measures and to build up a food slack in the system through adopting staples with high cereal/edible calories conversion ratios.

The dynamics of collegial systems in the developing countries

This paper develops a conceptual model of a collegial system working without external adjudication or an institutional charter governing the conduct of its operations. The model is applicable to many of the academic and research organizations established in the developing countries, which have attempted to emulate the equivalent professional organizations in the advanced industrial countries but have achieved low efficacy. The analysis suggests that an unadjudicated collegial system is not sustainable, for it will tend to create an authoritarian administration which will impair the collegial norms and misallocate scarce resources to the activities fueling bureaucratization and expansion of administrative scope, while professional autonomy. innovativeness and self-actualized behavior are suppressed. Professional conduct tends to be more-value rational than the bureaucracy since it is subject to reviews by external peers. Thus, legitimation of referent power is essential to creating value-rational decisions which assure a balanced resource allocation that sustains a collegial system. Limiting scope of the administration through an external scrutiny of its conduct or a charter appears to facilitate this process.

Photocatalytic degradation of bromophenol blue in aqueous medium using chitosan conjugated magnetic nanoparticles

Three different chitosan conjugated magnetic nanoparticles (CCMN) of Co, Ni and Fe were prepared using co-precipitation method. The prepared CCMN were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Xray diffraction (XRD) and Fourier transform infra-red (FT-IR) spectroscopic techniques. The SEM results showed a smooth surface morphology with almost uniform particle size and irregular shape structure for all CCMN. The XRD study revealed the crystalline structure in case of Co-CCMN and Ni-CCMN, while amorphous nature of Fe-CCMN was observed. The particle size of the prepared CCMN was found to be <95 nm, as confirmed from SEM and XRD analyses. Similarly, FT-IR analysis showed the incorporation and conjugation of Co, Ni and Fe magnetic nanoparticles into the chitosan polymer matrix. The point of zero charge (PZC) was found to be 7.41 for Co-CCMN and Ni-CCMN and 7.70 for Fe-CCMN. The photocatalytic activity of the prepared CCMN was investigated under UV light irradiation (254 nm and 15 W) in the aqueous medium using bromophenol blue (BPB). The photocatalytic process was monitored by UV-visible spectrophotometer for different irradiation times (0 to 10 h). The results showed that all the prepared CCMN displayed good to excellent photocatalytic property where the highest degradation was exhibited by Fe-CCMN (94.5%), followed by Co-CCMN (85.1%) and Ni-CCMN (83.0%). The prepared catalysts were recycled and reused, maintaining good photocatalytic activity for four consecutive batches.