Kiichiro Fukasaku

Export Diversification in Low-income Countries: An International Challenge after Doha

This paper discusses major policy issues related to commodity dependence and export diversification in low-income countries. Contrary to some widely-held view, it argues that natural resources are not necessarily a “curse” — that they do not condemn low-income countries to underdevelopment but can provide rather a basis for sustained export-led growth. Natural resource-based sectors have potential for export diversification. The OECD “mirror” trade data suggest that many different routes to diversification exist, including resource-based manufacturing and processing of primary products. However, these opportunities are not being exploited in many low-income countries. This is because export diversification is typically a slow process, and this process needs to be sustained by an appropriate and coherent strategy, characterised by a combination of vision, co-ordination and management of conflicting interests. Moreover, the analysis of trade support services in two African countries ... Les principaux problemes lies a la dependance vis-a-vis des produits de base et a la diversification des exportations dans les pays a faibles revenus sont abordes dans ce Document technique. Contrairement a une opinion largement repandue, les ressources naturelles ne sont pas necessairement une “tare” — elles ne condamnent pas les pays pauvres au sous-developpement, mais peuvent au contraire constituer la base d’une croissance durable tiree par les exportations. Les secteurs lies aux ressources naturelles disposent d’un potentiel de diversification a l’exportation. Il ressort des donnees sur les echanges de l’OCDE que les voies de la diversification sont nombreuses et variees, notamment les activites de transformation des produits primaires et les activites manufacturieres a base de ressources naturelles. Toutefois, ces possibilites ne sont pas exploitees dans de nombreux pays a faibles revenus. En effet, la diversification des exportations est un processus lent, qui doit etre ...

Multilateral Tariff Liberalisation and the Developing Countries

• Tariffs still matter. • Full tariff liberalisation to 2010 would generate dynamic welfare gains of

Policy Coherence Towards East Asia

1 200 billion (at 1995 prices), equivalent to 3 per cent of World GDP in 2010, from greater efficiency and higher productivity. • Developing countries stand to gain relatively more from multilateral tariff liberalisation, with aggregate gains amounting to nearly 5 per cent of their GDP in 2010. • The next WTO round will provide an opportunity for members to improve their living standards. Realising this potential, however, poses a major policy challenge to developing countries.

La libéralisation multilatérale des droits de douane et les pays en développement

OECD countries face at least five major challenges for promoting policies that are consistent with their development goals: . ensuring security and political stability; . anticipating the impacts of their macroeconomic policies on developing-country growth; . increasing both market access and capacity building for developing economies; . supporting governance structures that help maintain financial stability; . improving aid effectiveness.

Trade and Structural Adjustment Policies in Selected Developing Countries

• Les droits de douane : une question toujours d’actualite. • Une liberalisation totale des droits de douane d’ici a 2010 – entrainant des progres dans l’efficacite et la productivite – se traduirait par des gains de bien-etre de l’ordre de 1 200 milliards de dollars (aux prix de 1995), soit 3 pour cent du PIB mondial en 2010. • Les pays en developpement pourraient sans doute retirer de la liberalisation multilaterale des droits de douane des avantages relativement plus importants que les pays de l’OCDE, le gain global representant pres de 5 pour cent de leur PIB en 2010. • Les prochaines negociations de l’OMC permettront aux pays participants d’ameliorer leur niveau de vie. Toutefois, pour les pays en developpement, recueillir les avantages d’une telle liberalisation sera un veritable defi politique.

China's Unfinished Open-Economy Reforms

The experience of the five examined industries (agro-food in Chile, cut flowers in Kenya, garment in Lesotho and in Mauritius and seafood in Thailand) demonstrates that non-traditional industries can emerge and achieved strong growth rates in very diverse settings in terms of geography and initial economic and social conditions. In most of these cases, the government adopted a relatively export-oriented, business-friendly attitude and adapted its policies as the industries developed. Hence, a key factor for successful structural adjustment has been the pro-active role of government in establishing an enabling economic and policy environment that allows local firms to operate on a level-playing field and strengthen their competitive edge in international markets. This highlights the importance of implementing trade policies in the framework of comprehensive development strategies and establishing a consultative national policy-making process for ensuring a coherent approach to trade and structural adjustment. The case studies also underscore that countries (government and industry) are compelled to constantly adapt in light of new sources of competition, growing wage levels, environmental constraints, technological advances and demanding product and process standards. Policy-makers in most countries under review are aware of this challenge. As a consequence, some of them have taken the initiative to set up specific mechanisms or programmes for further enhancing the competitiveness of existing export sectors and/or promoting emerging non-traditional export industries. L’experience des cinq filieres etudiees (agro-alimentaire au Chili, fleurs au Kenya, vetements au Lesotho et a Maurice, et fruits de mer en Thailande) demontre que des industries non traditionnelles peuvent naitre et generer de solides taux de croissance dans les contextes les plus varies de geographie ou de fondamentaux economiques et sociaux. Dans la plupart de ces cas, les pouvoirs publics ont adopte une approche relativement favorable a l’exportation et aux affaires, et adapte leurs politiques au developpement de ces activites. Partant, le facteur cle d’un ajustement structurel benefique a ete la determination des gouvernements a adapter leur economie et le cadre politique pour permettre aux entreprises d’operer a un stade approprie et de renforcer leurs avantages comparatifs sur les marches internationaux. Ce qui souligne l’importance d’inscrire la politique commerciale dans le cadre des strategies de developpement global et de mettre en place, pour assurer une approche coherente de l’ajustement commercial et structurel, une procedure consultative nationale d’adoption des politiques. Les etudes de cas soulignent aussi que les pays (pouvoirs publics et entreprises) sont condamnes a s’adapter constamment en fonction des nouvelles sources de concurrence, de la charge salariale croissante, des contraintes de l’environnement, des avancees technologiques, et des exigences de la demande et des progres. Les decideurs politiques de la plupart des pays passes en revue sont conscients de ce defi. Et c’est pourquoi plusieurs d’entre eux ont pris l’initiative de mettre en oeuvre des mecanismes ou des programmes specifiques pour renforcer la competitivite des actuelles filieres d’export et/ou pour favoriser l’emergence d’activites exportatrices non traditionnelles.

Economic Transition and Trade-Policy Reform

During the 1990s, China has experienced a surge in imports of services, particularly those of communication, insurance and other business services, despite the fact that the authorities have maintained a plethora of restrictive measures limiting access to the service sector. Not only does this cast strong doubt over the effectiveness of these measures currently in place but also raises some important political-economy questions regarding the market access issues related to this sector. Following a brief review of the country’s efforts made since 1994 to sustain its openeconomy reforms, the paper takes stock of major policy developments in the service sector and discusses the pros and cons of liberalisation of services. The paper argues that a further liberalisation of services would be imperative for China to develop a more viable and dynamic service sector and stands to gain the full benefits of globalisation. The protective measures imposed for short-term, political ... En depit du maintien par les autorites chinoises d’une plethore de restrictions a l’acces au secteur tertiaire, la Chine a connu au cours des annees 90 une explosion des importations de services, en particulier des services de communication, d’assurance et d’autres services lies aux affaires. Cette tendance souleve des doutes serieux quant a l’efficacite des mesures actuellement en vigueur. Elle pose egalement des problemes socio-economiques importants en ce qui concerne l’acces a ces marches. Ce document fait le point sur les reformes destinees a ouvrir l’economie chinoise depuis 1994, et notamment sur les principales mesures concernant le secteur des services, avant d’examiner les avantages et les inconvenients de la liberalisation de ce secteur. Selon les auteurs, pour creer un secteur tertiaire plus viable et plus dynamique, la Chine doit poursuivre la liberalisation, afin de tirer tous les avantages de la mondialisation. Les mesures protectionnistes imposees pour repondre a ...

Transition, Globalisation and Labour in the Black Sea Economic Co-operation and Central Asian Regions

Trade-policy reform is an essential feature of China’s economic transition to a market economy. On the one hand, the liberalisation and decentralisation of export activities has boosted exports. On the other hand, the reform of China’s import regime has been progressing much more slowly. This has two negative consequences. The persisting combination of high nominal protection rates and numerous tariff exemptions creates a dual regime: export-oriented firms enjoy free access to imports, while the domestic sector remains highly protected from international competition, which allows for continuing misallocation of resources. This incompleteness of trade reforms currently prevents China from joining the WTO, which might eventually hamper its further integration into the world economy ... La reforme de la politique commerciale en Chine est un element essentiel de sa transition vers une economie de marche. La liberalisation et la decentralisation des echanges ont permis une forte croissance des exportations, mais la reforme du regime des importations est beaucoup plus lente. La persistance de barrieres douanieres elevees, assorties de nombreuses derogations, est a l’origine d’un regime dualiste : les entreprises exportatrices importent librement leurs intrants, alors que le secteur domestique reste fortement protege de la concurrence internationale, ce qui entretient la mesallocation des ressources. De plus, l’inachevement des reformes empeche la Chine d’acceder a l’OMC, ce qui pourrait, a terme, compromettre la poursuite de sa strategie d’ouverture ...

Making the Most of Aid: Challenges for Africa's Agribusiness

Globalisation has brought benefits to the economies in the Black Sea Economic Co-operation (BSEC) and Central Asia (CA), but compounded volatility and uncertainty associated with the transition to market economy. Labour markets have been put under pressure, as BSEC-CA countries compete on the international arena. One important form of labour market adjustment has been a large amount of migration flows within the BSEC-CA region and to the neighbouring countries.

Transition, mondialisation et travail dans les pays de la Coopération économique de la mer Noire et d'Asie centrale

Aid and trade policies – in OECD countries and in developing countries – might reinforce each other to promote development, or they might be substitutes: the sign of the correlation between trade and aid flows depends on the context. East Asia’s rapid growth demonstrates the important development impact of the trade-aid link. While aid has played a strong complementary role for trade development in Viet Nam, for example, the current impasse of African cotton producers is emblematic of trade and aid policies working at cross purposes. The experience of six African countries reviewed in this brief highlights the case for development assistance that aims to eliminate bottlenecks preventing a greater and deeper African participation in the global trading system. The scaling-up of aid, macroeconomic stability and trade expansion are compatible and the ongoing international “aid for trade” initiative will remain critically relevant for African development in the coming decades.