Norihiko Yamano

The OECD Input-Output Database

The development of the OECD?s input-output database started over a decade ago and is currently undergoing its second update. Over the years, the database has been used in a number of analytical applications both within and outside the OECD. Two major applications within the OECD concerned the analysis of the diffusion of embodied technology and, more recently, the measurement of carbon dioxide emissions embodied in the international trade of goods. The latest update is being conducted as part of an OECD project looking at global value chains. This paper describes how the database has developed over the last decade, both from a collection and a compilation...

The Regional Allocation of Public Investment: Efficiency or Equity?

In this paper we examine the effect of public investment on the regional economies of Japan. The efficient policy for regional allocation of public capital is to invest in highly productive regions, whereas the actual policy pursues equity goals by allocating more public investment to depressed regions. We determine the effects of this equity- oriented allocation by estimating the aggregate regional production function and calculating the productivity of public capital stock for each region, using a cross-sectional time-series data set. Our results show that the marginal productivity of public capital has recently declined in most depressed regions, whereas the productivity in developed regions (e.g., Tokyo, Osaka) has increased slightly. We compare alternative policies of allocating public investment and their effects on the regional and national economies using numerical simulations. We then quantitatively describe the trade-off between the efficient and the equitable allocation of public investment.

International Comparative Evidence on Global Value Chains

The past decades have witnessed a rapid globalisation of economic activity which has significantly changed the outlook of the world economy. International production, trade and investments are increasingly organised within so-called global value chains (GVCs) where the different stages in the production process are located across different economies. Until now, GVCs have been largely discussed from a conceptual and theoretical view, but empirical work on international fragmentation has stayed a bit behind.The review of the available data and indicators on GVCs in this paper shows the increasing importance of GVCs in todays global economy, but at the same time clearly highlights some major shortcomings. While the empirical evidence based on trade data is less convincing, Input-Output data clearly reveal the growing spread of international production networks. Indicators on imported intermediates, offshoring and vertical specialisation all illustrate the growing fragmentation of production across more economies. Trade data seem to show the increasing importance of GVCs only in an indirect way but the existing trade data are not detailed enough and are not collected on the right level of analysis to analyse the international fragmentation and GVCs.Policy makers show an increasing interest in GVCs because of the pervasive effects GVCs have on national economies and are especially looking for more and better policy evidence. Important policy issues like the impact of GVCs on the competitiveness of countries and attractiveness for international investments can only be addressed by new and better metrics. The OECD is developing new empirical evidence studying the emergence of GVCs based on international trade data and Input-Output data. In addition, the OECD is currently cooperating with other international agencies and academic experts to develop new metrics for GVCs, for example data on trade in value added. Donnees factuelles internationales comparables sur les chaines de valeur mondiales Depuis quelques decennies, l’activite economique planetaire connait une mondialisation rapide, qui transforme profondement le paysage de l’economie mondiale. La production, les echanges et l’investissement internationaux s’organisent de plus en plus en chaines de valeur mondiales (CVM) dans lesquelles les differents segments des processus de production sont repartis sur plusieurs territoires. Jusqu’a present, les CVM ont principalement ete etudiees d’un point de vue conceptuel et theorique, les travaux empiriques sur la segmentation internationale ayant ete quelque peu delaisses. L’examen des donnees et indicateurs disponibles sur les CVM dans cette etude met en evidence l’importance accrue des CVM dans l’economie mondiale, tout en faisant clairement apparaitre d’importants manques. Si les elements empiriques reposant sur les chiffres des echanges sont peu convaincants, les donnees d’entrees-sorties montrent clairement l’extension grandissante des reseaux internationaux de production. Les indicateurs sur les importations de produits intermediaires, sur les delocalisations et sur la specialisation verticale illustrent tous la segmentation croissante de la production entre un plus grand nombre d’economies. Les donnees sur les echanges semblent montrer l’importance croissante des CVM, d’une maniere indirecte, et celles dont on dispose ne sont pas suffisamment detaillees et ne sont pas collectees a un niveau d’analyse qui conviendrait pour analyser la segmentation internationale et les CVM. Les responsables politiques manifestent un interet croissant pour les CVM en raison de leurs effets profonds sur les economies nationales, et ils ont particulierement besoin de donnees plus exhaustives et de meilleure qualite. Certains enjeux importants pour les politiques, tels que l’impact des CVM sur la competitivite des pays et leur attractivite pour l’investissement international, ne peuvent etre abordes qu’a l’aide de mesures nouvelles et de meilleure qualite. L’OCDE produit de nouveaux elements empiriques pour etudier l’emergence des CVM a partir des donnees sur les echanges internationaux et les entrees-sorties. Par ailleurs, l’OCDE coopere actuellement avec d’autres instances internationales et avec des experts universitaires a la construction de nouvelles mesures pour les CVM, par exemple de donnees sur les echanges en valeur ajoutee.

The Measurement of Globalisation using International Input-Output Tables

One of the distinctive characteristics of the current globalisation process is the emergence of global value chains. Within global value chains and international production networks, not only are final goods traded internationally, but intermediate goods (parts and components) and, in recent years, services also increasingly are. This trend significantly alters the economic relations between countries and increasingly casts doubt on empirical indicators such as trade and FDI that are traditionally used to measure globalisation. Input-output tables may provide much finer detail in describing current globalisation as they offer information on the use of goods instead of the rather arbitrary classification schemes that divide goods into intermediate and other categories. Moreover, input-output tables also incorporate information on the use of services, enabling measurement of the increasing offshoring of service activities in todays business activities. Based on the OECD Input-Output Database, which includes harmonised tables for 38 countries (of which 10 emerging non-OECD economies), this paper brings together empirical evidence on the growing importance of global value chains and the increasing interdependence between countries. Input-output indicators are presented for individual countries and individual industries, aiming to demonstrate the changing characteristics of current globalisation.

Modeling the Regional Economic Loss of Natural Disasters: The Search for Economic Hotspots

Abstract This paper examines the economic impacts of natural disasters using the originally estimated finer geographical scale production datasets and the redefined interregional input–output table. For more effective estimates of direct losses of the disasters, the precise geographical information of industrial distribution is required, because most economic data are published according to political boundaries that may be too aggregated to be the practical information for disaster preventions and retrofit policies. The direct losses are captured by the output data at the district level (500-meter square) by sector and the population density. The map of economic hotspots is obtained after estimating the economic importance of each district. The numerical examples clearly show that the advantages of finer geographical scale datasets and the total economic losses are not proportional to the distributions of population and industrial activities. In other words, the disaster prevention and retrofit policies have to consider the higher-order effects to reduce the total economic loss.

The Measurement of CO2 Embodiments in International Trade

Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are linked to the global climate system such as the Kyoto Protocol might fail, if emission-restricted states relocate their carbon-intensive production activities to non-restricted countries where the primary production factors depend on more GHG-intensive sources. Such a relocation process and increased ‘carbon trade’ appear to be contrary to the GHG reductions envisioned in international agreements. This study addresses the issue of carbon embodiments in trade using internationally-comparable OECD data sources (Input-Output, Bilateral Goods Trade and CO2 emissions) for 41 countries/regions by 17 industries. Simulation results under base case scenarios for the mid-1990s and the early 2000s suggest that “trade deficits” of CO2 emissions are observed in 21 OECD countries in the early 2000s and that for 16 countries, the magnitude of the trade deficit increased in the late 1990s. While a third (860 Mt CO2) of the global increase in production-based emissions took place within the non-OECD economies in the late 1990s, more than half of the consumption-based emission (1550 Mt CO2) is still attributable to OECD consumption. The sensitivity simulations imply that an increase in global trade intensity has an increasing impact on embodied emissions while technology transfers from carbon-intensive countries to high carbon-intensive countries reduce global emissions and carbon trade gaps. Les efforts visant a reduire les emissions de gaz a effet de serre (GES) liees au systeme climatique mondial, notamment dans le cadre du Protocole de Kyoto, risquent d’echouer si les Etats ou s’appliquent des limitations des emissions delocalisent leurs activites de production a forte intensite de carbone vers des pays ou ces restrictions ne sont pas imposees et ou les facteurs de production primaire sont tributaires de sources qui emettent plus de GES. Ce processus de delocalisation et l’augmentation des ‘echanges de carbone’ vont a l’encontre des reductions des GES envisagees dans les accords internationaux. Cette etude aborde la question des quantites de carbone incorporees dans les echanges en utilisant des sources de donnees de l’OCDE comparables au plan international (entrees-sorties, commerce bilateral et emissions de CO2) concernant 41 pays/regions et 17 branches d’activite. Dans les resultats des simulations effectuees avec des scenarios de reference couvrant le milieu des annees 1990 et le debut des annees 2000, on observe des “deficits des echanges” d’emissions de CO2 dans 21 pays de l’OCDE au debut des annees 2000 et, s’agissant de 16 pays, un accroissement du solde negatif de ces echanges a la fin des annees 1990. Si un tiers (860 Mt de CO2) de l’augmentation mondiale des emissions dues a la production a ete produit dans des economies non membres de l’OCDE a la fin des annees 1990, plus de la moitie des emissions associees a la consommation (1550 Mt de CO2) sont encore imputables a la consommation de la zone OCDE. Les simulations des sensibilites laissent supposer qu’un accroissement de l’intensite des echanges mondiaux a un effet a la hausse sur les emissions incorporees, tandis que les transferts de technologie des pays moins emetteurs de carbone vers les pays gros emetteurs reduisent les emissions mondiales et les soldes negatifs des echanges de carbone.

Projection of supply and use tables

We present eight existing projection methods and test their relative performance in estimating Supply and Use tables (SUTs) of the Netherlands and Spain. Some of the methods presented have received little attention in the literature, and some have been slightly revised to better deal with negative elements and preserve the signs of original matrix entries. We find that (G)RAS and the methods proposed by Harthoorn and van Dalen (1987) and Kuroda (1988) produce the best estimates for the data in question. Their relative success also suggests the stability of ratios of larger transactions.

The Global MRIO Lab–charting the world economy

ABSTRACT We describe the creation of the Global Multi-Region Input–Output (MRIO) Lab, which is a cloud-computing platform offering a collaborative research environment through which participants can use each other’s resources to assemble their own individual MRIO versions. The Global MRIO Lab’s main purpose is to harness and focus previously disparate resources aimed at compiling large-scale MRIO databases that provide comprehensive representations of interregional trade, economic structure, industrial interdependence, as well as environmental and social impact. Based on the operational Australian Industrial Ecology Lab, a particularly important feature of this cloud environment is a highly detailed regional and sectoral taxonomy called the ‘root classification’. The purpose of this root is to serve as a feedstock from which researchers can choose any combination of regions and economic sectors to form a model of the economy that is suitable to address their particular research questions. Thus, the Global MRIO Lab concept enables enhanced flexibility in MRIO database construction whilst at the same time saving resources and avoiding duplication, by sharing time- and labour-intensive tasks amongst multiple research teams. We explain the concept, architecture, development and preliminary results of the Global MRIO Lab, and discuss its ability to continuously deliver some of the most prominent world MRIO databases.

Input-Output Analysis in an Increasingly Globalised World

Input-output (I-O) analysis has been around for nearly 70 years, and although its use has ebbed and flowed over the years, it has always retained a dedicated core of users in the worldwide research community. Recently however, there seems to have been a notable increase in the use of input-output tables in empirical analyses addressing a wide range of policy issues. This is partly due to the improved availability and quality of national input-output tables as well as modern IT capabilities allowing more complex analyses to be undertaken by more researchers. A quick glance through recent editions of the journal Economic Systems Research confirms the variety of research topics that can benefit from inputoutput analysis as does a recent user survey conducted by OECD...