Kim-Sung Lee

Dengue virus surveillance in Singapore reveals high viral diversity through multiple introductions and in situ evolution.

Dengue fever, a vector-borne disease, has caused tremendous burden to countries in the tropics and sub tropics. Over the past 20 years, dengue epidemics have become more widespread, severe and frequent. This study aims to understand the dynamics of dengue viruses in cosmopolitan Singapore. Envelope protein gene sequences of all four dengue serotypes (DENV-1-DENV-4) obtained from human sera in Singapore (2008-2010) revealed that constant viral introductions and in situ evolution contribute to viral diversity in Singapore and play important roles in shaping the epidemiology of dengue in the island state. The diversity of dengue viruses reported here could be a reflection of the on-going dengue situation in the region given Singapores location in a dengue hyperendemic region and its role as the regional hub for travels and trade. Though cosmopolitan genotype of DENV-2 has remained as the predominant strain circulating in Singapore, we uncovered evidence of in situ evolution which could possibly result in viruses with improved fitness. While we have previously shown that a switch in the predominant dengue serotype could serve as a warning for an impending outbreak, our current data shows that a replacement of a predominant viral clade, even in the absence of a switch in predominant serotype, could signal a possible increase in dengue transmission. The circulating dengue viruses in Singapore are highly diverse, a situation which could offer ample opportunities for selection of strains of higher fitness, thus increasing the risk of outbreaks despite a low Aedes population.

Dengue Serotype-Specific Differences in Clinical Manifestation, Laboratory Parameters and Risk of Severe Disease in Adults, Singapore

Studies on serotype-specific features of dengue and disease severity on adults are limited. We prospectively recruited adult febrile patients without alternate diagnosis to dengue from April 2005 to December 2011. Outcomes were defined using both the World Health Organization (WHO) 1997 and 2009 criteria; Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and severe dengue (SD). Infecting serotype was identified in 469 dengue-confirmed patients comprising 22.0% dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1), 57.1% DENV-2, 17.1% DENV-3, and 3.8% DENV-4. Cases infected with DENV-1 were more likely to present with red eyes whereas presence of joint pain and lower platelet count was associated with DENV-2 cases. After adjusting for potential confounders, DENV-1 was associated with both DHF (adjusted Relative Risk [aRR] = 1.74) and SD (aRR = 2.1) whereas DENV-2 had a lower risk of DHF (aRR = 0.5). DENV-1 genotype 1 and DENV-2 cosmopolitan were the predominant genotypes identified. Infecting dengue serotype and possibly genotype may play an important role in disease severity among adult dengue patients in Singapore.

Evolution and heterogeneity of multiple serotypes of Dengue virus in Pakistan, 2006–2011

BackgroundEven though dengue has been recognized as one of the major public health threats in Pakistan, the understanding of its molecular epidemiology is still limited. The genotypic diversity of Dengue virus (DENV) serotypes involved in dengue outbreaks since 2005 in Pakistan is not well studied. Here, we investigated the origin, diversity, genetic relationships and geographic distribution of DENV to understand virus evolution during the recent expansion of dengue in Pakistan.MethodsThe study included 200 sera obtained from dengue-suspected patients from 2006 to 2011. DENV infection was confirmed in 94 (47%) sera by a polymerase chain reaction assay. These included 36 (38.3%) DENV-2, 57 DENV-3 (60.6%) and 1 DENV-4 (1.1%) cases. Sequences of 13 whole genomes (6 DENV-2, 6 DENV-3 and 1 DENV-4) and 49 envelope genes (26 DENV-2, 22 DENV-3 and 1 DENV-4) were analysed to determine the origin, phylogeny, diversity and selection pressure during virus evolution.ResultsDENV-2, DENV-3 and DENV-4 in Pakistan from 2006 to 2011 shared 98.5-99.6% nucleotide and 99.3-99.9% amino acid similarity with those circulated in the Indian subcontinent during the last decade. Nevertheless, Pakistan DENV-2 and DENV-3 strains formed distinct clades characterized by amino acid signatures of NS2A-I116T + NS5-K861R and NS3-K590R + NS5-S895L respectively. Each clade consisted of a heterogenous virus population that circulated in Southern (2006–2009) and Northern Pakistan (2011).ConclusionsDENV-2, DENV-3 and DENV-4 that circulated during 2006–2011 are likely to have first introduced via the southern route of Pakistan. Both DENV-2 and DENV-3 have undergone in-situ evolution to generate heterogenous populations, possibly driven by sustained local DENV transmission during 2006–2011 periods. While both DENV-2 and DENV-3 continued to circulate in Southern Pakistan until 2009, DENV-2 has spread in a Northern direction to establish in Punjab Province, which experienced a massive dengue outbreak in 2011.

2013 Dengue Outbreaks in Singapore and Malaysia Caused by Different Viral Strains

Characterization of 14,079 circulating dengue viruses in a cross-border surveillance program, UNITEDengue, revealed that the 2013 outbreaks in Singapore and Malaysia were associated with replacement of predominant serotype. While the predominant virus in Singapore switched from DENV2 to DENV1, DENV2 became predominant in neighboring Malaysia. Dominance of DENV2 was most evident on the southern states where higher fatality rates were observed.

Three-Month Real-Time Dengue Forecast Models: An Early Warning System for Outbreak Alerts and Policy Decision Support in Singapore.

Background: With its tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, and changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue; the last large outbreak in 2013 culminated in 22,170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention. Objectives: We sought to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate the public health response to moderate an impending outbreak. Methods: We developed a set of statistical models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods to forecast the weekly incidence of dengue notifications over a 3-month time horizon. This forecasting tool used a variety of data streams and was updated weekly, including recent case data, meteorological data, vector surveillance data, and population-based national statistics. The forecasting methodology was compared with alternative approaches that have been proposed to model dengue case data (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and step-down linear regression) by fielding them on the 2013 dengue epidemic, the largest on record in Singapore. Results: Operationally useful forecasts were obtained at a 3-month lag using the LASSO-derived models. Based on the mean average percentage error, the LASSO approach provided more accurate forecasts than the other methods we assessed. We demonstrate its utility in Singapore’s dengue control program by providing a forecast of the 2013 outbreak for advance preparation of outbreak response. Conclusions: Statistical models built using machine learning methods such as LASSO have the potential to markedly improve forecasting techniques for recurrent infectious disease outbreaks such as dengue. Citation: Shi Y, Liu X, Kok SY, Rajarethinam J, Liang S, Yap G, Chong CS, Lee KS, Tan SS, Chin CK, Lo A, Kong W, Ng LC, Cook AR. 2016. Three-month real-time dengue forecast models: an early warning system for outbreak alerts and policy decision support in Singapore. Environ Health Perspect 124:1369–1375; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509981

Entomologic and molecular investigation into Plasmodium vivax transmission in Singapore, 2009

BackgroundSingapore has been certified malaria free since November 1982 by the World Health Organization and despite occasional local transmission, the country has maintained the standing. In 2009, three clusters of malaria cases were reported in Singapore.MethodsEpidemiological, entomological and molecular studies were carried out to investigate the three clusters, namely Mandai-Sungei Kadut, Jurong Island and Sembawang.ResultsA total of 29 malaria patients, with no recent travel history, were reported in the three clusters. Molecular analysis based on the msp3α and msp1 genes showed two independent local transmissions: one in Mandai-Sungei Kadut and another in Sembawang. Almost all cases within each cluster were epidemiologically linked. In Jurong Island cluster, epidemiological link remains uncertain, as almost all cases had a unique genetic profile. Only two cases shared a common profile and were found to be linked to the Mandai-Sungei Kadut cluster. Entomological investigation found Anopheles sinensis to be the predominant Anopheline in the two areas where local transmission of P. vivax was confirmed. Anopheles sinensis was found to be attracted to human bait and bites as early as 19:45 hrs. However, all Anopheles mosquitoes caught were negative for sporozoites and oocysts by dissection.ConclusionInvestigation of P. vivax cases from the three cluster areas confirmed the occurrence of local transmission in two areas. Although An. sinensis was the predominant Anopheline found in areas with confirmed transmission, the vector/s responsible for the outbreaks still remains cryptic.

Feeding host range of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) demonstrates its opportunistic host-seeking behavior in rural Singapore.

ABSTRACT Aedes albopictus (Skuse) is a competent vector of arboviruses of public health importance, including dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus viruses. Ae. albopictus is the primary vector of chikungunya virus in Singapore. However, despite being ubiquitous, it plays a secondary role in DENV transmission. The vectorial capacity of Ae. albopictus for DENV in field settings appears to be weak because dengue primarily occurs in Aedes aegypti (L.)-dominated, urban settings of the country. As host-seeking behavior is one of the determinants of vectorial capacity, we screened 6,762 female Ae. albopictus from rural, semiurban, and urban locations in Singapore for avian and nonavian bloodmeals using two polymerase chain reaction-sequencing assays developed in-house. The majority (83.2%, n = 79) of bloodmeals from rural and semiurban areas were from humans. However, Ae. albopictus was also found to feed on shrews, swine, dogs, cats, turtles, and multiple hosts in rural settings. In urban areas, all positive bloodmeals were from humans. There were no avian bloodmeals. Our findings testify that Ae. albopictus is highly anthropophagic even in rural settings, but become opportunistic in extremely low human abundance. This opportunistic feeding behavior warrants further investigations into the vectorial capacity of Ae. albopictus to assess its role in arbovirus transmission in endemic habitats.

Clinico-genetic characterisation of an encephalitic Dengue virus 4 associated with multi-organ involvement

Neurological manifestations due to Dengue virus (DENV) infection are atypical and uncommon. Genomic information of clinically characterised, neurotrophic DENV in humans is extremely limited albeit their importance in deciphering the pathogenicity is substantial. Here, we report a rare case of fatal DENV-4 infection complicated with encephalitis and multi-organ failure. The clinical presentation was unusual due to its rapid onset of encephalitis despite a very low virus titre. Full genomes of serum and CSF-derived viruses shared 99.99% similarity, indicating the virus dissemination across blood-brain barrier. Even though virus genomes did not reveal any of the neurotrophic substitutions of DENV documented so far, case isolates possessed a combination of 8 novel amino acid alterations, predominantly distributed in non-structural genes of DENV-4.

Intra-epidemic evolutionary dynamics of a Dengue virus type 1 population reveal mutant spectra that correlate with disease transmission

Dengue virus (DENV) is currently the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral pathogen. DENVs naturally exist as highly heterogeneous populations. Even though the descriptions on DENV diversity are plentiful, only a few studies have narrated the dynamics of intra-epidemic virus diversity at a fine scale. Such accounts are important to decipher the reciprocal relationship between viral evolutionary dynamics and disease transmission that shape dengue epidemiology. In the current study, we present a micro-scale genetic analysis of a monophyletic lineage of DENV-1 genotype III (epidemic lineage) detected from November 2012 to May 2014. The lineage was involved in an unprecedented dengue epidemic in Singapore during 2013–2014. Our findings showed that the epidemic lineage was an ensemble of mutants (variants) originated from an initial mixed viral population. The composition of mutant spectrum was dynamic and positively correlated with case load. The close interaction between viral evolution and transmission intensity indicated that tracking genetic diversity through time is potentially a useful tool to infer DENV transmission dynamics and thereby, to assess the epidemic risk in a disease control perspective. Moreover, such information is salient to understand the viral basis of clinical outcome and immune response variations that is imperative to effective vaccine design.

Plasmodium knowlesi: Emergent Human Malaria in Southeast Asia

Plasmodium knowlesi is an emerging malaria parasite in humans and is unique to Southeast Asia. Since most countries in Southeast Asia are working towards elimination of malaria, it is important to have knowledge on this emerging simian malaria parasite affecting humans. The first case of simian malaria was reported in Malaysia in 1965. At that time extensive work conducted did not reveal other simian malaria cases in humans. However, in 2004, a large focus of P. knowlesi was reported from Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo and that led to many studies and cases being reported from most countries in Southeast Asia. In this chapter, the history, epidemiology, diagnosis, vectors and role of simian host are discussed. Malaria is now a zoonosis and the challenges facing the countries of Southeast in tackling the knowlesi malaria situation and the way forward have been documented.