Kirsten Larsen

Climate Change Adaptation at the Intersection of Food and Health

Nutritious, safe, affordable, and enjoyable food is a fundamental prerequisite for health. As a nation, Australia is currently classified as food secure with the domestic production exceeding domestic consumption of most major food groups. The domestic system is almost self-sufficient in terms of nutritious plant foods, although these foods have seen steady higher price increases relative to other foods, with nutrition equity implications. However, the viability of Australia’s food security sits counter to the continued presence of a stable and supportive climate. This article reviews the current state of science concerning the interface between climate change, food systems, and human health to reveal the key issues that must be addressed if Australia is to advance human health and sustainable food systems under a changing climate.

Access and affordability of nutritious food in metropolitan Melbourne

Aim The cost of food is a key determinant of food choice. Little is known about the cost of food in metropolitan areas. The present study aimed to determine access to healthy food across Melbourne, Australia. Methods A random sample of 22 out of 31 local government areas was selected for inclusion in the study and one census collection district was chosen for analysis. The cost of a healthy food basket and basket of fruits and vegetables was assessed in a sample of supermarkets and green grocers. A ratio of healthy (supermarkets and grocery stores) to unhealthy (fast food and takeaway outlets) food stores was calculated. Results The median cost of a healthy food basket across 68 supermarkets for a family of four was not significantly different across suburbs (

Australian Food Security Dilemmas: Comparing Nutritious Production Scenarios and Their Environmental, Resource and Economic Tensions

456.27, 20.07). Families in inner city use less of their income on the basket (15%) compared to middle and outer suburbs (19%, P = 0.02 and P = 0.03, respectively). The median price of a sample of fruits and vegetables across 24 green grocers was significantly cheaper than supermarkets (P = 0.01). Accessibility to healthy food decreased significantly between inner (ratio = 3.4), middle (ratio = 2.5) and outer suburbs (ratio = 0.91). Conclusions Those living in outer suburbs may have poorer access to healthy food. Ensuring more affordable, accessible healthy food is available for those living in outer suburban areas may improve nutrition outcomes.

Modelling food system resilience: a scenario-based simulation modelling approach to explore future shocks and adaptations in the Australian food system

Being able to supply a nutritious diet to Australians over the coming decades is likely to prove considerably challenging according to a range of scenarios modelled in simulations of the Australian agricultural system, economy and environment. This is in stark contrast to surplus supply experienced in the past for virtually all food types. Instead of attempting to make ill-fated predictions of what the future will be like, this work determines the environmental, resource and economic implications of three substantially different scenarios using a ‘stocks and flows’ model of the Australian system. Each scenario was developed with stakeholders in a workshop process; and each attempts to deal with the effects of population growth, fuel security (peak oil), climate change impacts, greenhouse gas mitigation and fertilizer constraints in ways which are consistent within each scenario, but different between them. One scenario, labelled as Adjustment, assumes free markets and high levels of international trade; Control, as the second scenario, assumes strong policy and regulatory intervention in the market to ensure the domestic supply of core foods; the third, DIY, envisages a more decentralized future with mostly local government intervention. Comprehensive food security is not achieved in any scenario, particularly when the potential impacts of constraints in other critical resources are considered. Overall, Adjustment is skewed toward economic benefits, DIY towards environmental resilience and Control is more evenly balanced though by no means ideal.

Sustainable and secure food systems for Victoria: What do we know? What do we need to know?

This paper outlines a process for exploring food system vulnerability and resilience using scenario modelling with the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF). The capacity of ASFF to simulate how diverse shocks and stressors affect food system behaviour across multiple sectors—with diverse, interconnected and dynamic variables shaping system response—renders ASFF particularly suited for exploring complex issues of future food supply. We used ASFF to explore the significance of alternative agricultural policies for land use, crop production, livestock production, fisheries, food processing, transport, food waste and ultimately food supply. Policies in different scenarios varied with regard to the timetable for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the degree of government participation or regulation in the food system and the scale of solutions (varying from centralized and global to decentralized and local). Results from the scenarios suggest that Australia does not have the ability to maintain a domestic surplus of foods required for a nutritious diet. In particular, the health of the current food system is highly vulnerable to constraints in oil supply, and increased food production threatens to precipitate a drastic decline in critical water supplies. We conclude by outlining a proposed method for using ASFF to delve deeper into the dynamics of the food system, probe the consequences of various adaptive responses to food production and supply challenges and devise potential indicators for food system resilience. Shocks and stressors to be added to the next phase of scenario modelling include soil salinity, climate extremes and credit scarcity. The ASFF methodology should be applicable to other parts of the world, although appropriate recalibration and adjustment of model assumptions would be required to reflect regional differences.