Graham M. Turner

THE DEMATERIALIZATION POTENTIAL OF THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY

In this paper we test the long term dematerialization potential for Australia in terms of materials, energy, and water use as well as CO2 emissions, by introducing concrete targets for major sectors. Major improvements in the construction and housing, transport and mobility, and food and nutrition sectors in the Australian economy, if coupled with significant reductions in the resource export sectors, would substantially improve the current material, energy and emission intensive pattern of Australia’s production and consumption system. Using the Australian Stocks and Flows framework we model all system interactions to understand the contributions of large scale changes in technology, infrastructure and lifestyle to decoupling the economy from the environment. The modelling shows a considerable reduction in natural resource use, while energy and water use decrease to a much lesser extent because a reduction in natural resource consumption creates a trade-off in energy use. It also shows that trade and economic growth may continue, but at a reduced rate compared with a business-as-usual scenario. The findings of our modelling are discussed in light of the large body of literature on dematerialization, eco-efficiency and rebound effects that may occur when efficiency is increased. We argue that Australia cannot rely on incremental efficiency gains but has to undergo a sustainability transition to achieve a low carbon future to keep in line with the international effort to avoid climate change and resource use conflicts. We touch upon the institutional changes that would be required to guide a sustainability transition in the Australian economy, such as, for instance, an emission trading scheme.

A tool for strategic biophysical assessment of a national economy - The Australian stocks and flows framework

The Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF) was developed to assess the biophysical longevity of the Australian economy, with top-down coverage of the whole physical economy based on bottom-up process-based detail. The ASFF employs mass-balance identities associated with stock and flow dynamics throughout the national economy and associated interaction with the environment. We show that the ASFF shares common features with complementary approaches, including Mass Flow Analysis, Physical Input-Output Tables, and Life Cycle Analysis, but is distinctly different from these because the biophysical processes throughout the economy and environment are represented explicitly. The detailed physical processes modelled have a strong empirical basis, being calibrated with six or more decades of historical data. Given the coverage of the entire economy in physical terms, it provides for many subject specific analyses such as water, energy, climate change, etc, which can also be assessed in integrated analysis of scenarios to 2100 in order to highlight conflicts, trade-offs, and synergies. The ASFF can be applied and adapted to represent specific interests in more detail and context, as demonstrated by multiple applications of the ASFF. Overall, it is designed to explore the possible trajectories of the national economic system over the long term within irrefutable biophysical constraints, and thereby inform development of appropriate policy. The open biophysical nature of the ASFF is intended for exploration and learning, rather than being normative or policy prescriptive.

Modeling Basic Industries in the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

Summary The Australian stocks and flows framework (ASFF) is a tool for establishing a coherent historical picture of the Australian physical economy and for testing long-term future scenarios (up to 2050 or even 2100). These scenarios can be used to investigate the long-term physical consequences of current and future choices affecting the physical dimensions of sustainability. In this article we describe the methodology for and construction of a key component of ASFF: a dynamic physical input-output model of material flows in the basic industries. The materials model in ASFF describes physical flows and their transformation by industrial processes. The model’s structure permits scenario analysis of long-term technological change by permitting time-varying input-output coefficients and vintage models of capital stocks. As a consequence, the model contains a large number of parameters, which can be left at default settings or adjusted as the modeler sees fit, in order to simulate the widest possible range of physically realizable scenarios. The materials model is built using a methodology that integrates bottom-up process analysis with topdown statistics on material and energy flows. We present some examples showing how the materials model has been implemented to model Australian heavy industries. Several possibilities for further developing the materials modelarealso described.

Australian Food Security Dilemmas: Comparing Nutritious Production Scenarios and Their Environmental, Resource and Economic Tensions

Being able to supply a nutritious diet to Australians over the coming decades is likely to prove considerably challenging according to a range of scenarios modelled in simulations of the Australian agricultural system, economy and environment. This is in stark contrast to surplus supply experienced in the past for virtually all food types. Instead of attempting to make ill-fated predictions of what the future will be like, this work determines the environmental, resource and economic implications of three substantially different scenarios using a ‘stocks and flows’ model of the Australian system. Each scenario was developed with stakeholders in a workshop process; and each attempts to deal with the effects of population growth, fuel security (peak oil), climate change impacts, greenhouse gas mitigation and fertilizer constraints in ways which are consistent within each scenario, but different between them. One scenario, labelled as Adjustment, assumes free markets and high levels of international trade; Control, as the second scenario, assumes strong policy and regulatory intervention in the market to ensure the domestic supply of core foods; the third, DIY, envisages a more decentralized future with mostly local government intervention. Comprehensive food security is not achieved in any scenario, particularly when the potential impacts of constraints in other critical resources are considered. Overall, Adjustment is skewed toward economic benefits, DIY towards environmental resilience and Control is more evenly balanced though by no means ideal.

Historical Calibration of a Water Account System

Models that are used for future based scenarios should be calibrated with historical water supply and use data. Historical water records in Australia are discontinuous, incomplete and often incongruently disaggregated. We present a systematic method to produce a coherent reconstruction of the historical provision and consumption of water in Victorian catchments. This is demonstrated using WAS: an accounting and simulation tool that tracks the stocks and flows of physical quantities relating to the water system. The WAS is also part of, and informed by, an integrated framework of stocks and flows calculators for simulating long-term interactions between other sectors of the physical economy. Both the WAS and related frameworks consider a wide scope of inputs regarding population, land use, energy and water. The physical history of the water sector is reconstructed by integrating water data with these information sources using a data modelling process that resolves conflicts and deduces missing information. The WAS allows strategic exploration of water and energy implications of scenarios of water sourcing, treatment, delivery and end use cognisant of historical records.

Modelling food system resilience: a scenario-based simulation modelling approach to explore future shocks and adaptations in the Australian food system

This paper outlines a process for exploring food system vulnerability and resilience using scenario modelling with the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF). The capacity of ASFF to simulate how diverse shocks and stressors affect food system behaviour across multiple sectors—with diverse, interconnected and dynamic variables shaping system response—renders ASFF particularly suited for exploring complex issues of future food supply. We used ASFF to explore the significance of alternative agricultural policies for land use, crop production, livestock production, fisheries, food processing, transport, food waste and ultimately food supply. Policies in different scenarios varied with regard to the timetable for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the degree of government participation or regulation in the food system and the scale of solutions (varying from centralized and global to decentralized and local). Results from the scenarios suggest that Australia does not have the ability to maintain a domestic surplus of foods required for a nutritious diet. In particular, the health of the current food system is highly vulnerable to constraints in oil supply, and increased food production threatens to precipitate a drastic decline in critical water supplies. We conclude by outlining a proposed method for using ASFF to delve deeper into the dynamics of the food system, probe the consequences of various adaptive responses to food production and supply challenges and devise potential indicators for food system resilience. Shocks and stressors to be added to the next phase of scenario modelling include soil salinity, climate extremes and credit scarcity. The ASFF methodology should be applicable to other parts of the world, although appropriate recalibration and adjustment of model assumptions would be required to reflect regional differences.

Modelling manufactured capital stocks and material flows in the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework

Manufactured capital stocks and their relationships to physical flows of materials and energy are of interest in the fields of industrial ecology and input-output analysis. Manufactured capital stocks embody technologies, which may be characterised by input-output (IO) relations. The rate and nature of technological and structural change in an economy are therefore related to the dynamics of these stocks. Certain capital stocks also act as substantial long-lived stores of materials in the anthroposphere. Additions to and scrapping of these stocks directly generate flows of new and used materials and wastes. This chapter is concerned with two relationships between manufactured capital stocks and material flows, and in particular, how they may be modelled in the field of industrial ecology. Examples are drawn from scenarios developed using the Australia Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF) (Foran and Poldy 2002). Section two of this chapter deals with methodological and practical issues encountered in accounting for and modelling manufactured capital stocks. Both commonalities and differences between economic and physical perspectives on capital stocks are discussed. An example is given of historical and projected vehicle stocks in Australia. Section three deals with input-output modelling of technologies embodied in capital stocks, focussing particularly on the ‘bottom-up’ or ‘process modelling’ approach employed in ASFF. An example of process-based IO models for steel production in Australia is provided. Section four is concerned with dynamic models of stocks and flows in Industrial Ecology. A dynamic physical IO model (Lennox et al. 2004) within ASFF is described and an example of material