Kirsten S. Wiebe

Calculating Energy-Related Co 2 Emissions Embodied In International Trade Using A Global Input--Output Model

The Global Resource Accounting Model (GRAM) is an environmentally-extended multi-regional input–output model, covering 48 sectors in 53 countries and two regions. Next to CO2 emissions, GRAM also includes different resource categories. Using GRAM, we are able to estimate the amount of carbon emissions embodied in international trade for each year between 1995 and 2005. These results include all origins and destinations of emissions, so that emissions can be allocated to countries consuming the products that embody these emissions. Net-CO2 imports of OECD countries increased by 80% between 1995 and 2005. These findings become particularly relevant, as the externalisation of environmental burden through international trade might be an effective strategy for industrialised countries to maintain high environmental quality within their own borders, while externalising the negative environmental consequences of their consumption processes to other parts of the world. This paper focuses on the methodological aspects and data requirements of the model, and shows results for selected countries and aggregated regions.

Carbon and Materials Embodied in the International Trade of Emerging Economies

Production in emerging economies, such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Argentina (BRICSA), increased substantially over the past two decades. This is, on the one hand, due to growing domestic demand within these countries, and, on the other hand, due to a deepened international division of work. Global trade linkages have become denser and production chains are no longer restricted to only one or two countries. The volume of international trade in intermediate inputs as well as final consumption goods has tripled in the past two decades. With this, carbon dioxide (CO) emissions and materials embodied in traded goods have increased, making it increasingly difficult to identify the actual causes of emissions and material extractions, as producing and extracting countries are not necessarily consuming the resulting goods. Using the multiregional input‐output Global Resource Accounting Model (GRAM), this article shows how global carbon emissions and materials requirements are allocated from producing/extracting countries to consuming countries. It thereby contributes to the rapidly growing body of literature on environmental factors embodied in international trade by bringing two key environmental categories — CO emissions and materials — into one consistent and global framework of analysis for the first time. The results show that part of the increase in carbon emissions and materials extraction in BRICSA is caused by increasing amounts of trade with countries in the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development as well as a growing demand for goods and services produced within BRICSA.

The impact of renewable energy diffusion on European consumption-based emissions

ABSTRACT The amount of carbon embedded in the final consumption of goods and services in a country or region depends on the amount of goods and services consumed and the emission intensity of the production processes along global production chains. A reduction of consumption-based emissions can be achieved from both sides, a reduction in total consumption and a reduction in the emission intensity of the production processes. The power sector is one of the most carbon intensive industries along global production chains and the global deployment of renewable power generation technologies (RPGTs) is one possibility to significantly reduce emissions in this industry. This paper combines three different strands of literature, multi-regional input–output analysis, dynamic energy–economy–environment models and technological change in renewable energy (RE), to model the impact of the global diffusion of renewable energies on European consumption-based emissions. The global diffusion of RE technologies (photovoltaic and wind) depends on the development of technology costs, which are modeled using learning curves. With increasing deployment of renewables within the EU as well as increasing RD&D efforts, the EU can achieve an accelerated costs decrease for these technologies, thus fostering deployment of RPGTs at a global scale through the effect of decreasing costs. This behavior indirectly influences the electricity mix abroad, making it less carbon intensive, so that consumption-based emissions of the EU decrease.

To RAS or not to RAS? What is the difference in outcomes in multi-regional input--output models?

ABSTRACT The global resource accounting model (GRAM), which is based on OECD input–output and bilateral trade data, is a multi-regional input–output model covering 53 countries and 2 regions. What differentiates GRAM from other state-of-the-art models in this field is that it does not use a matrix balancing technique, such as RAS, after the initial construction of the global intermediate coefficient and final demand matrices. Instead, it reproduces prescribed intermediate and final demand, and determines value added residually. This choice was made to alter the original data as little as possible and keep the calculations traceable. This simpler solution technique might, however, yield different results. This paper aims at identifying the difference between the current solution of GRAM and the solution of a RASed version of GRAM, thus contributing to the assessment of currently used methodologies in this research field. The short conclusion is that, even though some differences during the calculations are present, the calculated output (production) matrix does not differ substantially. The results show that larger differences are brought about by poor assumptions regarding missing or conflicting data rather than by applying or not applying a RAS procedure to the constructed global matrices.

Knappe Metalle, Peak Oil und mögliche wirtschaftliche Folgen – Vergleich zweier ökonomischer Modelle zu möglichen Folgen von Verfügbarkeitsgrenzen bei fossilen Energien und Metallen

Okonomische Simulations- und Prognosemodelle werden in vielfaltiger Weise zur Wirkungsanalyse auch im Umwelt- und Energiebereich eingesetzt. Sowohl bei der Wirkungsabschatzung einzelner Instrumente, etwa einer Steuer oder eines Fordermechanismus, als auch fur die Abschatzung der Auswirkung von Ereignissen wie Material- und Ressourcenknappheiten kommen Modelle haufig zum Einsatz.