Ulrike Lehr

German Energiewende - quo vadis?

Under the impression of the Fukushima events in 2011, the German Government decided to immediately close down the seven oldest German nuclear power plants (built before 1980) and one younger plant, which had been under scrutiny due to several incidents. To secure energy supply, a set of measures concerning renewable energy deployment and the increase in energy efficiency has been established, together with nuclear phase out, which are often referred to as the “Energiewende”. After more than two years into this transition, the challenges and opportunities of the Energiewende become measurable. The contribution reports findings from the monitoring process. One focus of the contribution is the analysis of the economic effects of the Energiewende thus far and in the near future. With the help of a macro-econometric model, two different paths of development are compared with respect to their effects on GDP, employment, and investment and value-added in different economic sectors.

Makroökonomische Bewertung von Extremwetterereignissen in Deutschland

Extremwetterereignisse werden infolge des Klimawandels zukunftig haufiger auftreten. Die deutsche Volkswirtschaft ist aufgrund ihrer hochtechnischen Ausdifferenzierung potenziell besonders anfallig. Zur Planung von Anpassungsmasnahmen mussen diese Risiken auf gesamtwirtschaftlicher Ebene abgebildet und bewertet werden.

Economic Impacts of Renewable Energy Increase in Germany

The positive impacts of an increasing share of renewable energy (RE) on the mitigation of climate change as well as on the decrease of the dependence of energy imports are indisputable. Currently, more than 350,000 people work in the respective industries in Germany. The contribution explains the calculation of gross employment comprising direct and indirect jobs in the facility production, operation, and maintenance and fuel production. The number of jobs in the field has more than doubled from 2004, when the first calculation has been done. However, also increasing are the additional costs of heat and electricity generation from most renewable energy sources (RES). For a stable economic development, the overall balance of positive and negative effects under different possible future development pathways of fossil fuel prices, global climate policies and global trade is of interest. To account for all effects in a consistent framework, a macroeconometric model is employed. Economic development is measured via the comparison of economic indicators such as GDP and employment from different simulation runs. Overall net positive effects can be seen for instance as higher employment in one simulation run compared with the other.

Knappe Metalle, Peak Oil und mögliche wirtschaftliche Folgen – Vergleich zweier ökonomischer Modelle zu möglichen Folgen von Verfügbarkeitsgrenzen bei fossilen Energien und Metallen

Okonomische Simulations- und Prognosemodelle werden in vielfaltiger Weise zur Wirkungsanalyse auch im Umwelt- und Energiebereich eingesetzt. Sowohl bei der Wirkungsabschatzung einzelner Instrumente, etwa einer Steuer oder eines Fordermechanismus, als auch fur die Abschatzung der Auswirkung von Ereignissen wie Material- und Ressourcenknappheiten kommen Modelle haufig zum Einsatz.

Extreme Weather Events and the German Economy: The Potential for Climate Change Adaptation

Although climate change is a global challenge, its effects occur locally and differ by region. A feasible adaptation strategy needs to assess regional damages and their socio-economic effects. For Germany, the largest threat comes from extreme weather events, which will impact residential and commercial buildings, infrastructure and in the case of heat waves will limit labor productivity. This paper presents findings from a study of economic effects of climate change adaptation until the year 2050 in Germany on different scales. In particular, the authors have applied an input–output-based macroeconometric model, adjusting it to cope with the challenges of damages from heat waves, and river flood events, by integrating suitable adaptation measures to such events into the model. Infrastructure damages, shifts from domestic production to imports, and low levels of productivity due to heat waves, are some of the topics the paper deals with. Comparing scenarios with (a) integrated extreme weather events and (b) adaptation measures with a reference scenario without extreme weather or adaptation, the simulation results reveal slightly negative effects on economic sectors and Germany’s economy as a whole. These effects intensify over time and hurt the economy. Adaptation measures reduce the damages and pay off, but the economy is still worse off with climate change.