Klaus-Peter Dahle

Incremental validity of the Psychopathy Checklist facet scores: Predicting release outcome in six samples.

The incremental validity of the 4 facet scores (Interpersonal, Affective, Lifestyle, Antisocial) of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; R. D. Hare, 1991, 2003) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV; S. D. Hart, D. N. Cox, & R. D. Hare, 1995) was evaluated in 6 forensic/correctional samples with average follow-ups ranging from 20 weeks to 10 years. Results indicated that whereas Facet 4 (Antisocial) achieved incremental validity relative to the first 3 facets (Interpersonal, Affective, and Lifestyle) in predicting recidivism in all 6 samples, a block of the first 3 facets achieved incremental validity relative to the 4th facet in only 1 sample. Thus, although there was consistent support for the incremental validity of Facet 4 above and beyond the first 3 facets, there was minimal support for the incremental validity of Facets 1, 2, and 3 above and beyond Facet 4. The implications of these findings for the psychopathy construct in general and the PCL-R/SV in particular are discussed.

Suicide Prevention in Penal Institutions: Validation and Optimization of a Screening Tool for Early Identification of High-Risk Inmates in Pretrial Detention

Suicide is the leading cause of death in penal institutions, especially during the early stage of confinement. Effective suicide prevention thus requires early identification of at-risk inmates. The aim of this study was to assess a screening instrument developed in the Netherlands for early identification of potentially suicidal high-risk inmates. The screening instrument was retrospectively tested and further developed on the basis of 30 suicides that occurred between 1991–2000 at the pretrial detention center Berlin-Moabit and an equalsized control random sample. The screening instrument turned out to be sensitive. The initially high rate of false-positive classifications could be lowered by simplifying the instrument.

Applying crime scene analysis to the prediction of sexual recidivism in stranger rapes.

The current study sought to improve the predictive accuracy of sexual recidivism using the Static-99 risk assessment tool by the addition of detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was carried out using a Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach, the gold-standard in CSA. BTA was conducted on a sample of 167 stranger rape cases using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and sexual exploitation, consistent with previous research in sexual offending CSA. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the criminality theme was significantly predictive of sexual recidivism and also significantly correlated with previous sexual offense history. Further, the criminality theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism.

Interpreting multiple risk scales for sex offenders: evidence for averaging.

This study tested 3 decision rules for combining actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders into an overall evaluation of risk. Based on a 9-year follow-up of 940 adult male sex offenders, we found that Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), Static-99R, and Static-2002R predicted sexual, violent, and general recidivism and provided incremental information for the prediction of all 3 outcomes. Consistent with previous findings, the incremental effect of RRASOR was positive for sexual recidivism but negative for violent and general recidivism. Averaging risk ratios was a promising approach to combining these risk scales, showing good calibration between predicted (E) and observed (O) recidivism rates (E/O index = 0.93, 95% CI [0.79, 1.09]) and good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.73, 95% CI [0.69, 0.77]) for sexual recidivism. As expected, choosing the lowest (least risky) risk tool resulted in underestimated sexual recidivism rates (E/O = 0.67, 95% CI [0.57, 0.79]) and choosing the highest (riskiest) resulted in overestimated risk (E/O = 1.37, 95% CI [1.17, 1.60]). For the prediction of violent and general recidivism, the combination rules provided similar or lower discrimination compared with relying solely on the Static-99R or Static-2002R. The current results support an averaging approach and underscore the importance of understanding the constructs assessed by violence risk measures.

Crime Scene Behaviors Indicate Risk-Relevant Propensities of Child Molesters:

The current study used crime scene analysis (CSA) to identify the psychological characteristics of child molesters and examined the contribution of these behavioral themes for sexual offender risk assessment. CSA was conducted on a sample of 424 cases of child sexual abuse in Berlin (Germany) using non-metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling. The analysis revealed the behavioral themes of fixation, regression (sexualization), criminality, and (sexualized) aggression, consistent with previous theories and empirical research in child molestation. The construct validity of the four themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures, ratings of offender motivation, and criminal histories. The themes of fixation and (sexualized) aggression were significant predictors of sexual recidivism and added incrementally to the Static-99 for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate that crime scene information can inform the assessment of child molesters’ risk-relevant propensities and improve the prediction of sexual recidivism.

Acquaintance Rape Applying Crime Scene Analysis to the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism

The aim of the current study was to enhance the assessment and predictive accuracy of risk assessments for sexual offenders by utilizing detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was conducted on a sample of 247 male acquaintance rapists from Berlin (Germany) using a nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 14 to 64 years (M = 32.3; SD = 11.4). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and pseudo-intimacy, consistent with previous CSA research on stranger rape. The construct validity of the three themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures and criminal histories. The themes of hostility and pseudo-intimacy were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. In addition, the pseudo-intimacy theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate the potential utility and validity of crime scene behaviors in the applied risk assessment of sexual offenders.

The Development of the Crime Scene Behavior Risk Measure for Sexual Offense Recidivism

The inclusion of crime scene behavior in actuarial risk assessment so far is insufficient, unsystematic, and neglecting factors theoretically relevant to sexual recidivism. Therefore, the goal of the current study was to develop a brief actuarial risk scale based on crime scene characteristics. The development sample consisted of data (police databases, paper records, and the National Conviction Registry) from 955 male sexual offenders (77% German citizens, 20% foreign nationals, mean age = 35 years, convicted for sexual abuse and/or sexual violence). Further, the independent cross-validation-sample consisted of data from 77 sexual offenders. The 7 items that are comprised by the Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR) measure showed high predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism with little variation between the development (c index = .72) and the replication sample (c index = .74). Further, the CBR was found to provide significant incremental validity and improve the predictive accuracy of the Static-99R risk assessment tool. Given the predictive and incremental validity of the CBR it is suggested that sexual offender risk assessment can be improved by utilizing crime scene behavior. The CBR is currently being used in addition to the Static-99R by the State Office of Criminal Investigations in Berlin to prioritize released sexual offenders for police supervision.

Straftäterbehandlung und Evaluation

Es dauerte ein weiteres knappes Jahrzehnt, bis der Gedanke um Wiederbelebung des Behandlungsanliegens im Justizvollzug auch politisches Gehör und Eingang in die Gesetzgebung fand. Mit dem „Gesetz zur Bekämpfung von Sexualdelikten und anderen gefährlichen Straftaten“ vom 26.01.1998 und der damit einhergegangenen Reform des § 9 StVollzG wurde dann erstmals seit dem fehlgelaufenen Versuch der Etablierung von Sozialtherapie als Maßregel der Besserung und Sicherung für eine bestimmte Gruppe von Sexualstraftätern ein sozialtherapeutischer Behandlungsanspruch formuliert. Den jährlichen Stichtagserhebungen der Kriminologischen Zentralstelle Wiesbaden e. V. zur Sozialtherapie in Deutschland zufolge haben sich seither die Zahl der sozialtherapeutischen Einrichtungen und die Zahl der dort verfügbaren Behandlungsplätze vervielfacht. Zu dieser Ausweitung der Sozialtherapie in Deutschland hat ferner beigetragen, dass dezidierte sozialtherapeutische Behandlungseinrichtungen seit Mitte der 2000er Jahre auch Einzug in den Jugendstrafvollzug genommen haben. Aus neueren gesetzlichen Entwicklungen in den Bundesländern lässt sich weiterhin unschwer die Prognose ableiten, dass der Kreis der Tätergruppen mit gesetzlich verankertem sozialtherapeutischen Behandlungsanspruch in naher Zukunft wohl eher noch größer und insbesondere um Täter mit gravierenden Gewaltdelikten erweitert werden wird. Aber auch der Bundesgesetzgeber hat mit seinen jüngeren Reformen der Sicherungsverwahrung neue Aufgaben für die Sozialtherapie und für neue Behandlungseinrichtungen in Deutschland formuliert. Insbesondere der neu geschaffene § 66c StGB (Ausgestaltung der Unterbringung in der Sicherungsverwahrung und des vorhergehenden Strafvollzugs) sichert den in Sicherungsverwahrung Untergebrachten, aber auch den von Sicherungsverwahrung bedrohten Strafgefangenen, ein intensives, fachgerechtes und notfalls maßgeschneidertes Behandlungsangebot mit dem Ziel zu, Straftäterbehandlung und Evaluation

Beiträge der deutschsprachigen forensischen Verhaltenswissenschaft zur kriminalprognostischen Methodenentwicklung

ZusammenfassungDie Beurteilung der Kriminalprognose eines Rechtsbrechers ist ein komplexer Prozess der zielgerichteten Informationsgewinnung und ihrer integrativen Bewertung. Ihr Zweck muss sich dabei nicht auf die bloße Einschätzung der Rückfallwahrscheinlichkeit eines Rechtsbrechers beschränken. Er kann auch darin bestehen zu verstehen, warum der Rechtsbrecher überhaupt eine bestimmte Tat begangen hat; beispielsweise, um Entscheidungsträger in die Lage zu versetzen, hierauf angemessen zu reagieren, effiziente Interventionen zu planen oder ein auf den Einzelfall zugeschnittenes Risikomanagement zu entwickeln.Die Methoden der Kriminalprognose haben sich in den letzten Dekaden beträchtlich weiterentwickelt. Anliegen des vorliegenden Beitrags ist es, eine Übersicht über grundsätzliche methodische Ansätze für eine wissenschaftlich begründbare Beurteilung kriminalprognostischer Fragen, ihrer jeweiligen Stärken und Begrenzungen sowie den Stand ihrer jeweiligen Beforschung zu geben. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf dem deutschsprachigen Raum. Dieser Schwerpunkt erfolgt nicht zuletzt auch deshalb, weil das deutsche Rechtssystem bei der Beurteilung von strafrechtsrelevanten Rückfallrisiken besondere Anforderungen an den Individualisierungsgrad und die Berücksichtigung etwaiger Besonderheiten des Einzelfalls stellt. Andererseits stammen sehr viele derzeit gebräuchliche Methoden und Instrumente aus dem (zumeist englischsprachigen) Ausland. Aus diesem Grund wird zunächst ein Abriss der internationalen Prognoseforschung gegeben.AbstractForensic risk assessment of an offender is a complex process of obtaining targeted information from diverse sources and creating an integrated conceptualization of the information. The goal must not be limited to an assessment of the risk of recidivism of an offender. In fact, it is important to understand why an offender committed such a crime in order to inform decision makers and enable them to provide appropriate interventions and tailored management of future risks in individual cases. Risk assessment and risk measures have considerably evolved over the last decades and distinct approaches to and generations of risk assessment can be differentiated. This article gives an overview and introduction to the different approaches to scientifically based risk assessment including the strengths, weaknesses and empirical foundation. The focus will be on approaches used in the German language due to specific judicial considerations of the German legal system. This places special requirements on the degree of individualization and consideration of any special characteristics of individual cases for the assessment of the risk of recidivism relevant to criminal law. On the other hand, many of the currently employed methods and instruments originate from other, mostly English-speaking countries. For this reason, an outline of the international research on risk assessment is initially given.

Prison Climate and Its Role in Reducing Dynamic Risk Factors During Offender Treatment

Although several offender treatment experts have suggested that therapeutic relationships play an important role in offender treatment, empirical finding supporting those arguments are scarce. The present study has therefore examined the relationship between prison climate, treatment motivation, and their influence on changes in risk factors in N = 215 inmates and detainees in four correctional facilities in Berlin, Germany. The inmates’ perception of prison climate significantly correlated with their attitudes towards treatment. More positive climate in terms of therapeutic hold and more positive treatment attitude in terms of trust in therapy were also the best predictors of stronger decreases in dynamic risk factors measured by the Level of Service Inventory–Revised (LSI-R). Our results support the importance of treatment relationship factors within the course of offender rehabilitation.