Robert J. B. Lehmann

Daily Expression Pattern of Protein-Encoding Genes and Small Noncoding RNAs in Synechocystis sp. Strain PCC 6803

ABSTRACT Many organisms harbor circadian clocks with periods close to 24 h. These cellular clocks allow organisms to anticipate the environmental cycles of day and night by synchronizing circadian rhythms with the rising and setting of the sun. These rhythms originate from the oscillator components of circadian clocks and control global gene expression and various cellular processes. The oscillator of photosynthetic cyanobacteria is composed of three proteins, KaiA, KaiB, and KaiC, linked to a complex regulatory network. Synechocystis sp. strain PCC 6803 possesses the standard cyanobacterial kaiABC gene cluster plus multiple kaiB and kaiC gene copies and antisense RNAs for almost every kai transcript. However, there is no clear evidence of circadian rhythms in Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 under various experimental conditions. It is also still unknown if and to what extent the multiple kai gene copies and kai antisense RNAs affect circadian timing. Moreover, a large number of small noncoding RNAs whose accumulation dynamics over time have not yet been monitored are known for Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. Here we performed a 48-h time series transcriptome analysis of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803, taking into account periodic light-dark phases, continuous light, and continuous darkness. We found that expression of functionally related genes occurred in different phases of day and night. Moreover, we found day-peaking and night-peaking transcripts among the small RNAs; in particular, the amounts of kai antisense RNAs correlated or anticorrelated with those of their respective kai target mRNAs, pointing toward the regulatory relevance of these antisense RNAs. Surprisingly, we observed that the amounts of 16S and 23S rRNAs in this cyanobacterium fluctuated in light-dark periods, showing maximum accumulation in the dark phase. Importantly, the amounts of all transcripts, including small noncoding RNAs, did not show any rhythm under continuous light or darkness, indicating the absence of circadian rhythms in Synechocystis.

Expression of ADAMTS1 in endothelial cells is induced by shear stress and suppressed in sprouting capillaries.

ADAMTS1 inhibits capillary sprouting, and since capillary sprouts do not experience the shear stress caused by blood flow, this study undertook to clarify the relationship between shear stress and ADAMTS1. It was found that endothelial cells exposed to shear stress displayed a strong upregulation of ADAMTS1, dependent upon both the magnitude and duration of their exposure. Investigation of the underlying pathways demonstrated involvement of phospholipase C, phosphoinositide 3‐kinase, and nitric oxide. Forkhead box protein O1 was identified as a likely inhibitor of the system, as its knockdown was followed by a slight increase in ADAMTS1 expression. In silico prediction displayed a transcriptional binding site for Forkhead box protein O1 in the promotor region of the ADAMTS1 gene, as well as sites for nuclear factor 1, SP1, and AP‐1. The anti‐angiogenic effects of ADAMTS1 were attributed to its cleavage of thrombospondin 1 into a 70‐kDa fragment, and a significant enhancement of this fragment was indeed demonstrated by immunoblotting shear stress‐treated cells. Accordingly, scratch wound closure displayed a slowdown in conditioned medium from shear stress‐treated endothelial cells, an effect that could be completely blocked by a knockdown of thrombospondin 1 and partially blocked by a knockdown of ADAMTS1. Non‐perfused capillary sprouts in rat mesenteries stained negative for ADAMTS1, while vessels in the microcirculation that had already experienced blood flow yielded the opposite results. The shear stress‐dependent expression of ADAMTS1 in vitro was therefore also demonstrated in vivo and thereby confirmed as a mechanism connecting blood flow with the regulation of angiogenesis. J. Cell. Physiol. 226: 350–361, 2011.

Applying crime scene analysis to the prediction of sexual recidivism in stranger rapes.

The current study sought to improve the predictive accuracy of sexual recidivism using the Static-99 risk assessment tool by the addition of detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was carried out using a Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach, the gold-standard in CSA. BTA was conducted on a sample of 167 stranger rape cases using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and sexual exploitation, consistent with previous research in sexual offending CSA. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the criminality theme was significantly predictive of sexual recidivism and also significantly correlated with previous sexual offense history. Further, the criminality theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism.

Interpreting multiple risk scales for sex offenders: evidence for averaging.

This study tested 3 decision rules for combining actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders into an overall evaluation of risk. Based on a 9-year follow-up of 940 adult male sex offenders, we found that Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), Static-99R, and Static-2002R predicted sexual, violent, and general recidivism and provided incremental information for the prediction of all 3 outcomes. Consistent with previous findings, the incremental effect of RRASOR was positive for sexual recidivism but negative for violent and general recidivism. Averaging risk ratios was a promising approach to combining these risk scales, showing good calibration between predicted (E) and observed (O) recidivism rates (E/O index = 0.93, 95% CI [0.79, 1.09]) and good discrimination (area under the curve = 0.73, 95% CI [0.69, 0.77]) for sexual recidivism. As expected, choosing the lowest (least risky) risk tool resulted in underestimated sexual recidivism rates (E/O = 0.67, 95% CI [0.57, 0.79]) and choosing the highest (riskiest) resulted in overestimated risk (E/O = 1.37, 95% CI [1.17, 1.60]). For the prediction of violent and general recidivism, the combination rules provided similar or lower discrimination compared with relying solely on the Static-99R or Static-2002R. The current results support an averaging approach and underscore the importance of understanding the constructs assessed by violence risk measures.

Crime Scene Behaviors Indicate Risk-Relevant Propensities of Child Molesters:

The current study used crime scene analysis (CSA) to identify the psychological characteristics of child molesters and examined the contribution of these behavioral themes for sexual offender risk assessment. CSA was conducted on a sample of 424 cases of child sexual abuse in Berlin (Germany) using non-metric Multi-Dimensional Scaling. The analysis revealed the behavioral themes of fixation, regression (sexualization), criminality, and (sexualized) aggression, consistent with previous theories and empirical research in child molestation. The construct validity of the four themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures, ratings of offender motivation, and criminal histories. The themes of fixation and (sexualized) aggression were significant predictors of sexual recidivism and added incrementally to the Static-99 for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate that crime scene information can inform the assessment of child molesters’ risk-relevant propensities and improve the prediction of sexual recidivism.

Acquaintance Rape Applying Crime Scene Analysis to the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism

The aim of the current study was to enhance the assessment and predictive accuracy of risk assessments for sexual offenders by utilizing detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was conducted on a sample of 247 male acquaintance rapists from Berlin (Germany) using a nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 14 to 64 years (M = 32.3; SD = 11.4). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and pseudo-intimacy, consistent with previous CSA research on stranger rape. The construct validity of the three themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures and criminal histories. The themes of hostility and pseudo-intimacy were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. In addition, the pseudo-intimacy theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate the potential utility and validity of crime scene behaviors in the applied risk assessment of sexual offenders.

The Development of the Crime Scene Behavior Risk Measure for Sexual Offense Recidivism

The inclusion of crime scene behavior in actuarial risk assessment so far is insufficient, unsystematic, and neglecting factors theoretically relevant to sexual recidivism. Therefore, the goal of the current study was to develop a brief actuarial risk scale based on crime scene characteristics. The development sample consisted of data (police databases, paper records, and the National Conviction Registry) from 955 male sexual offenders (77% German citizens, 20% foreign nationals, mean age = 35 years, convicted for sexual abuse and/or sexual violence). Further, the independent cross-validation-sample consisted of data from 77 sexual offenders. The 7 items that are comprised by the Crime Scene Behavior Risk (CBR) measure showed high predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism with little variation between the development (c index = .72) and the replication sample (c index = .74). Further, the CBR was found to provide significant incremental validity and improve the predictive accuracy of the Static-99R risk assessment tool. Given the predictive and incremental validity of the CBR it is suggested that sexual offender risk assessment can be improved by utilizing crime scene behavior. The CBR is currently being used in addition to the Static-99R by the State Office of Criminal Investigations in Berlin to prioritize released sexual offenders for police supervision.

Strengths of Actuarial Risk Assessment

Research consistently shows that structured, actuarial approaches to recidivism prediction are more accurate than (unstructured) professional judgment. Therefore, the purpose of this chapter is to discuss the strengths of actuarial risk assessment. First, we will provide greater discussion of ways to conceptualize risk factors that may be included in risk scales (actuarial or other approaches). Then, we will discuss what types of information can be provided by actuarial risk scales (i.e., percentiles, risk ratios, and absolute recidivism estimates). Also, this chapter will discuss how the greater objectivity inherent in actuarial risk scales contributes to understanding important psychometrics of the risk assessment approaches (e.g., interrater reliability, construct, and predictive validity) and how the predictive accuracy of actuarial scales compares to other approaches (e.g., structured professional judgment). These sections will be applicable to any type of offender risk assessment (i.e., any scale designed to predict an outcome among offenders). In the next section, the reader will be introduced to a small sampling of sexual offender risk scales (i.e., Static-99/R, Risk Matrix 2000, CBR, Stable-2007, Acute-2007, VRS-SO). Then, results of surveys will be highlighted to illustrate what scales are being used in practice and how the information is being used. Lastly, the practical clinical power of actuarial risk assessment instruments in everyday practice will be discussed.

Beiträge der deutschsprachigen forensischen Verhaltenswissenschaft zur kriminalprognostischen Methodenentwicklung

ZusammenfassungDie Beurteilung der Kriminalprognose eines Rechtsbrechers ist ein komplexer Prozess der zielgerichteten Informationsgewinnung und ihrer integrativen Bewertung. Ihr Zweck muss sich dabei nicht auf die bloße Einschätzung der Rückfallwahrscheinlichkeit eines Rechtsbrechers beschränken. Er kann auch darin bestehen zu verstehen, warum der Rechtsbrecher überhaupt eine bestimmte Tat begangen hat; beispielsweise, um Entscheidungsträger in die Lage zu versetzen, hierauf angemessen zu reagieren, effiziente Interventionen zu planen oder ein auf den Einzelfall zugeschnittenes Risikomanagement zu entwickeln.Die Methoden der Kriminalprognose haben sich in den letzten Dekaden beträchtlich weiterentwickelt. Anliegen des vorliegenden Beitrags ist es, eine Übersicht über grundsätzliche methodische Ansätze für eine wissenschaftlich begründbare Beurteilung kriminalprognostischer Fragen, ihrer jeweiligen Stärken und Begrenzungen sowie den Stand ihrer jeweiligen Beforschung zu geben. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf dem deutschsprachigen Raum. Dieser Schwerpunkt erfolgt nicht zuletzt auch deshalb, weil das deutsche Rechtssystem bei der Beurteilung von strafrechtsrelevanten Rückfallrisiken besondere Anforderungen an den Individualisierungsgrad und die Berücksichtigung etwaiger Besonderheiten des Einzelfalls stellt. Andererseits stammen sehr viele derzeit gebräuchliche Methoden und Instrumente aus dem (zumeist englischsprachigen) Ausland. Aus diesem Grund wird zunächst ein Abriss der internationalen Prognoseforschung gegeben.AbstractForensic risk assessment of an offender is a complex process of obtaining targeted information from diverse sources and creating an integrated conceptualization of the information. The goal must not be limited to an assessment of the risk of recidivism of an offender. In fact, it is important to understand why an offender committed such a crime in order to inform decision makers and enable them to provide appropriate interventions and tailored management of future risks in individual cases. Risk assessment and risk measures have considerably evolved over the last decades and distinct approaches to and generations of risk assessment can be differentiated. This article gives an overview and introduction to the different approaches to scientifically based risk assessment including the strengths, weaknesses and empirical foundation. The focus will be on approaches used in the German language due to specific judicial considerations of the German legal system. This places special requirements on the degree of individualization and consideration of any special characteristics of individual cases for the assessment of the risk of recidivism relevant to criminal law. On the other hand, many of the currently employed methods and instruments originate from other, mostly English-speaking countries. For this reason, an outline of the international research on risk assessment is initially given.

Developing Nonarbitrary Metrics for Risk Communication Norms for the Risk Matrix 2000

Nominal risk categories for actuarial risk assessment information should be grounded in nonarbitrary, evidence-based criteria. The current study presents numeric indicators for interpreting one such tool, the Risk Matrix 2000, which is widely used to assess the recidivism risk of sexual offenders. Percentiles, risk ratios, and 5-year recidivism rates are presented based on an aggregated sample (N = 3,144) from four settings: England and Wales, Scotland, Germany, and Canada. The Risk Matrix 2000 Sex, Violence, and Combined scales showed moderate accuracy in assessing the risk of sexual, non-sexual violent, and violent recidivism, respectively. Although there were some differences across samples in the distributions of risk categories, relative increases in recidivism for ascending risk categories were remarkably consistent. Options for presenting percentiles, risk ratios, and absolute recidivism estimates in applied evaluations are offered, with discussion of the advantages, disadvantages, and limitations of these risk communication metrics.