Koen Pauwels

Effects of Word-of-Mouth Versus Traditional Marketing: Findings from an Internet Social Networking Site

The authors study the effect of word-of-mouth (WOM) marketing on member growth at an Internet social networking site and compare it with traditional marketing vehicles. Because social network sites record the electronic invitations from existing members, outbound WOM can be precisely tracked. Along with traditional marketing, WOM can then be linked to the number of new members subsequently joining the site (sign-ups). Because of the endogeneity among WOM, new sign-ups, and traditional marketing activity, the authors employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling approach. Estimates from the VAR model show that WOM referrals have substantially longer carryover effects than traditional marketing actions and produce substantially higher response elasticities. Based on revenue from advertising impressions served to a new member, the monetary value of a WOM referral can be calculated; this yields an upper-bound estimate for the financial incentives the firm might offer to stimulate WOM.

New Products, Sales Promotions, and Firm Value:The Case of the Automobile Industry

Year after year, managers strive to improve financial performance and firm value through marketing actions such as new product introductions and promotional incentives. This study investigates the short- and long-term impact of such marketing actions on financial metrics, including top-line, bottom-line, and stock market performance. The authors apply multivariate time-series models to the automobile industry, in which both new product introductions and promotional incentives are considered important performance drivers. Notably, whereas both marketing actions increase top-line firm performance, their long-term effects strongly differ for the bottom line. First, new product introductions increase long-term financial performance and firm value, but promotions do not. Second, investor reaction to new product introduction grows over time, indicating that useful information unfolds in the first two months after product launch. Third, product entry in a new market yields the highest top-line, bottom-line, and stock market benefits. Managers may use these results to justify new product efforts and to weigh short- and long-term consequences of promotional incentives.

The Long-Term Effects of Price Promotions on Category Incidence, Brand Choice, and Purchase Quantity

To what extent do price promotions have a long-term effect on the components of brand sales, namely, category incidence, brand choice, and purchase quantity? The authors answer this question by using persistence modeling on weekly sales data of a perishable and a storable product derived from a scanner panel. Their analysis reveals, first, that permanent promotion effects are virtually absent for each sales component. Next, the authors develop and apply an impulse response approach to estimate the promotional adjustment period and the total dynamic effects of a price promotion. Specifically, they calculate the long-term equivalent of Guptas (1988) 14/84/2 breakdown of promotional effects. Because of positive adjustment effects for incidence but negative adjustment effects for choice, the authors find a reversal of the importance of category incidence and brand choice: 66/11/23 for the storable product and 58/39/3 for the perishable product. The authors discuss the implications of the findings and suggest some areas for further research.

Do Promotions Benefit Manufacturers, Retailers, or Both?

Do price promotions generate additional revenue and for whom? Which brand, category, and market conditions influence promotional benefits and their allocation across manufacturers and retailers? To answer these questions, we conduct a large-scale econometric investigation of the effects of price promotions on manufacturer revenues, retailer revenues, and total profits (margins).A first major finding is that a price promotion typically does not have permanent monetary effects for either party. Second, price promotions have a predominantly positive impact on manufacturer revenues, but their effects on retailer revenues are mixed. Moreover, retailer category margins are typically reduced by price promotions. Even when accounting for cross-category and store-traffic effects, we still find evidence that price promotions are typically not beneficial to the retailer. Third, our results indicate that manufacturer revenue elasticities are higher for promotions of small-share brands, for frequently promoted brands and for national brands in impulse product categories with a low degree of brand proliferation and low private-label shares. Retailer revenue elasticities are higher for brands with frequent and shallow promotions, for impulse products, and in categories with a low degree of brand proliferation. Finally, retailer margin elasticities are higher for promotions of small-share brands and for brands with infrequent and shallow promotions. We discuss the managerial implications of our results for both manufacturers and retailers.

Mindset Metrics in Market Response Models: An Integrative Approach

Demonstrations of marketing effectiveness currently proceed along two parallel tracks: Quantitative researchers model the direct sales effects of the marketing mix, and advertising and branding experts trace customer mind-set metrics (e.g., awareness, affect). The authors merge the two tracks and analyze the added explanatory value of including customer mind-set metrics in a sales response model that already accounts for short- and long-term effects of advertising, price, distribution, and promotion. Vector autoregressive modeling of the metrics for more than 60 brands of four consumer goods shows that advertising awareness, brand consideration, and brand liking account for almost one-third of explained sales variance. Competitive and own mind-set metrics make a similar contribution. Wear-in times reveal that mind-set metrics can be used as advance warning signals that allow enough time for managerial action before market performance itself is affected. Specific marketing actions affect specific mind-set metrics, with the strongest overall impact for distribution. The findings suggest that modelers should include mind-set metrics in sales response models and branding experts should include competition in their tracking research.

Dashboards as a service: why, what, how, and what research is needed?

Recent years have seen the introduction of a “marketing dashboard” that brings the firm’s key marketing metrics into a single display. Service firms across industries have created such dashboards e...Recent years have seen the introduction of a “marketing dashboard” that brings the firm’s key marketing metrics into a single display. Service firms across industries have created such dashboards either by themselves or together with a dashboard service provider. This article examines the reasons for this development and explains what dashboards are, how to develop them, what drives their adoption, and which academic research is needed to fully exploit their potential. Overcoming the challenges faced in dashboard development and operation provides many opportunities for marketing to exercise a stronger influence on top management decisions. The article outlines five stages of dashboard development and discusses the relationships among demand for dashboards, supply of dashboards, and the implementation process in driving adoption and use of dashboard systems. Key topics for future research include metrics selection, relationships among metrics, and the ultimate question of whether dashboards provide sufficient benefits to justify their adoption.

Winners and losers in a major price war

Although retail price wars have received much business press and some research attention, it is unclear how they affect consumer purchase behavior. This article studies an unprecedented price war in Dutch grocery retailing that started in fall 2003, initiated by the market leader to halt its sliding market share. The authors investigate the short- and long-term effects of the price war on store visits, on spending, and on the sensitivity of these decisions to weekly prices and price image. They use a unique data set with consumer hand-scan and perceptual data for a national panel of 1821 households, covering two years before and two years after the price war started. Although the price war initially entailed more shopping around and increased spending, spending per visit ultimately dropped because consumers redistributed their purchases across stores. The price war made consumers more sensitive to weekly prices and price image, which helped both the chain that showed an improvement in price image (the price war initiator) and the chains that already had a favorable price image (hard discounters). The price war initiator managed to halt the slide in its market share, and its stock price improved. The losers were the rival mid-level and high-end chains. Unlike the initiator, their price image did not improve, and they suffered from increased price image sensitivity. The authors provide managerial implications for firms that are (or about to be) involved in a price war.

The Impact of Brand Equity and Innovation on the Long-Term Effectiveness of Promotions

Although managers often hope to obtain long-term benefits with temporary marketing actions, academic studies imply that their chances are slim. Extant research has implicitly assumed that the brand itself carries no influence over whether marketing promotions have the power to lift sales permanently. Using panel data for seven years from 100 brands across seven product categories, the authors employ a two-stage approach in which long-term promotional effectiveness is first estimated with persistence modeling and then these effectiveness estimates are related to brand equity and new product introductions. By examining a broad range of brands in each category, the authors find that positive sales evolution from promotional efforts is fairly common, especially for small brands. Moreover, the authors find that both permanent and cumulative sales effects from marketing promotions are greater for brands with higher equity and more product introductions, whereas brands with low equity gain greater benefits from product introductions. These results offer new research and managerial insights into the presence and conditions for persistent benefits from marketing promotions.

What is Special about Marketing Organic Products? How Organic Assortment, Price and Promotions Drive Retailer Performance

Higher sales and margins are key goals for retailers promoting emerging products, such as organics, but little is known about their marketing effectiveness and their cross-effects on conventional product sales. Extant research reports conflicting results about price and promotional sensitivity for organic products and does not address the impact of organic assortment. This article calculates long-term own- and cross-elasticities of organic and conventional product sales in response to changes in assortment, price, and promotions. Using a rich data set of 56 categories, the authors test hypotheses on how different costs and benefits of organic products affect these elasticities. They find that enduring actions, such as assortment and regular price changes, have a higher elasticity for organics than for conventional products. In contrast with common wisdom, even “core” organic consumers are sensitive to these actions. Increasing organic assortment and promotion breadth yields higher profits for the total category, as do more frequent promotions on conventional products. The category comparison yields specific advice with regard to where larger assortment and lower prices versus more and deeper promotions are most effective.

Marketing's profit impact: Quantifying online and offline funnel progression

Inofec, a small-to medium-sized enterprise in the business-to-business sector, desired a more analytic approach to allocate marketing resources across communication activities and channels. We developed a conceptual framework and econometric model to empirically investigate 1 the marketing communication effects on off-line and online purchase funnel metrics and 2 the magnitude and timing of the profit impact of firm-initiated and customer-initiated contacts. We find evidence of many cross-channel effects, in particular, off-line marketing effects on online funnel metrics and online funnel metrics on off-line purchases. Moreover, marketing communication activities directly affect both early and later purchase funnel stages website visits, online and off-line information, and quote requests. Finally, we find that online customer-initiated contacts have substantially higher profit impact than off-line firm-initiated contacts. Shifting marketing budgets toward these activities in a field experiment yielded net profit increases 14 times larger than those for the status quo allocation.