Krishna Bahadur Kc

Adaptive Transition Management for Transformations to Agricultural Sustainability in the Karnali Mountains of Nepal

Current agroecological approaches to farming have provided a limited understanding of transformations to sustainability, particularly in subsistence agrarian economies of geographically isolated regions of the world. Some suggest mitigating social and ecological impacts of modern industrial farming while others advocate for local adaptation to changes in socioecological systems, such as climate change, extreme weather events, and biodiversity loss. This article investigates effective pathways of fundamental transformations in technologies, livelihoods, and lifestyles referred to as “agricultural sustainability transitions” in the Karnali Mountains, the most impoverished region of Nepal. Findings suggest that neither management of change referred to as transition management nor adaptation to change referred to as adaptive management effectively leads to agricultural sustainability transitions in this region of the country. An integration of these two approaches, which this article theorizes as “adaptive transition management,” can help charter transition pathways through system innovation making new and improved technologies more accessible and adaptable to smallholders while developing local capacity to adapt to changes in agroecological systems.

Strategies to boost global food production: Modelling socioeconomic policy scenarios

Abstract Current research on food security is dominated by crop, climate and demographic modellers who project how changes in weather and population may affect the global demand and supply of food. But socioeconomic factors also play a crucial role in determining the amount of food we produce. In this paper, we present spatially explicit multiple regression models that demonstrate 65% of maize, 49% of rice and 35% of wheat harvests (globally) can be explained by four socioeconomic variables: income distribution, gross domestic product/capita, human development index and fertilizer use. Using these insights, we model the effect that different hypothetical policy scenarios may have on boosting yields and demonstrate that it could be possible to increase global cereal harvests by 70%. This research demonstrates that to understand threats to global food security, and develop strategies to avert problems, scientists must integrate socio-economic data with biological and demographic factors if they want to provide comprehensive advice to policy makers.

Assessing strategic water availability using remote sensing, GIS and a spatial water budget model: case study of the Upper Ing Basin, Thailand

Abstract This paper assesses strategic water availability and use under different development pathways on a basin scale using remote sensing (RS), geographical information systems (GIS) and a spatial water budget model (SWBM). The SWBM was applied to the Upper Ing Basin in northern Thailand to investigate the spatial and temporal variations in the location of streams and water yields from different parts of the basin. The base simulation was carried out for the years 1998–2007 using a DEM and actual land-use data at 100-m resolution. The simulated stream network was compared with topographic maps under different flow conditions, which were successfully represented. The 10-year average simulated river flow rate was 1300 L/s, but it more than doubled during periods of heavy rainfall and decreased below 600 L/s in dry seasons. The total length of the streams (based on flow threshold of 25 L/s) on a typical day in the dry season differed by a factor of approx. 1.5. Agricultural water needs and possible extraction were assessed and presented by dividing the basin into 10 different zones based on the stream network. The results show that there is the potential for harvesting significant quantities of water at different spatial gradients with no initial water supply for irrigation. Monthly water yields for each zone were computed; the results varied from less than 50% to over 137% of the per hectare water yield for the entire basin. This variation was due to differences in topography and land cover. The impact of land use and climate change on streamwater availability was also studied. The basin shows very different hydrological responses. The changes in average river flow relative to the base simulation were +27.6%, −32.1%, +94% and +52.9% under deforestation, changing land use from paddy field to orchard, bare soil and increased rainfall scenarios, respectively. Citation Bahadur KC, K. (2011) Assessing strategic water availability using remote sensing, GIS and a spatial water budget model: case study of the Upper Ing Basin, Thailand. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 994–1014.

When too much isn’t enough: Does current food production meet global nutritional needs?

Sustainably feeding the next generation is often described as one of the most pressing “grand challenges” facing the 21st century. Generally, scholars propose addressing this problem by increasing agricultural production, investing in technology to boost yields, changing diets, or reducing food waste. In this paper, we explore whether global food production is nutritionally balanced by comparing the diet that nutritionists recommend versus global agricultural production statistics. Results show that the global agricultural system currently overproduces grains, fats, and sugars while production of fruits and vegetables and protein is not sufficient to meet the nutritional needs of the current population. Correcting this imbalance could reduce the amount of arable land used by agriculture by 51 million ha globally but would increase total land used for agriculture by 407 million ha and increase greenhouse gas emissions. For a growing population, our calculations suggest that the only way to eat a nutritionally balanced diet, save land and reduce greenhouse gas emissions is to consume and produce more fruits and vegetables as well as transition to diets higher in plant-based protein. Such a move will help protect habitats and help meet the Sustainable Development Goals.