Kristin D. Marano

An atlas of ShakeMaps for selected global earthquakes

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Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

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Earthquake Impact Scale

With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts, U.S. and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake response, an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two complementary criteria. On the basis of the estimated cost of damage, one is most suitable for domestic events; the other, on the basis of estimated ranges of fatalities, is generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in developing countries. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past earthquake impact and associated response levels, are quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response needed after an event through alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international respon...

Advancements in Casualty Modelling Facilitated by the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System

The advent of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, in conjunction with several recent advances and trends in related data sources and research efforts, bring to light new opportunities within the overlapping realms of earthquake hazard, earthquake engineering, and earthquake epidemiological studies. While casualty modelling has admittedly often suffered from the lack of epidemiological rigour on the part of earth scientists and engineers, comparable laxity is also evident in some analyses of related hazard complexities on the part of social scientists. These limitations have often been due to insufficient oversight or interaction, or more commonly, insufficient data availability. Thanks to improved data sets, modelling approaches, and collaborations, there are now fewer obstacles to performing comprehensive casualty estimation, though formidable challenges remain. Under the auspices of the PAGER system, a global set of ShakeMaps has been produced for all significant earthquakes in the past 34 years (1973–2007). These event-specific ShakeMaps, constrained by any available data, are then combined with new global population data sets to develop systematic hazard and loss analyses. These and other important advancements, as well as their limitations, and their potential for contributing to casualty modelling are discussed. Example studies and applications are presented.