Krzysztof Rybinski

Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Central and Eastern Europe

The purpose of this study is to review the existing literature on transmission mechanism in CEE and put it in a broader context of the problems related to research on monetary policy. Also, we attempted to conduct empirical analysis for 10 transition economies using analogous methodology for the same sample period 1995-2000. In this comparative framework a series of Granger causality tests and impulse response analysis were carried out to asses the strength of two major transmission channels: interest rate and exchange rate channel. Also in the empirical part, we tried to look for the existence of long-run relationships between the basic set of macroeconomic variables in the countries under investigation.

Testing Integration of Macroeconomic Time Series in Transitional Socialist Economies. A Modification of Perron Test

The presence of structural breaks reduces the power of integration tests. A number of methods were suggested to improve the statistical properties of integration tests in the presence of structural breaks. The most known are Perron tests, which allow to test for the level of integration of time series with one structural break. Perron tests allow for two types of structural breaks: additive outlier an innovative outlier. These tests are, however, not very useful in testing the level of integration of macroeconomic time series in countries in transition from centrally-planned to market economy. In such case one should expect two structural breaks to affect the time series: one at the beginning and one at the end of the transformation process. Test that allows for two additive outlier type structural breaks in time series is developed in this paper. This test has superior power as compared to standard Dickey-Fuller and Perron tests. This paper provides asymptotic distribution as well as finite sample properties of proposed test. Therefore practitioners receive a reliable tool for analyzing macroeconomic processes in transitional economies.