Przemyslaw Wozniak

Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Central and Eastern Europe

The purpose of this study is to review the existing literature on transmission mechanism in CEE and put it in a broader context of the problems related to research on monetary policy. Also, we attempted to conduct empirical analysis for 10 transition economies using analogous methodology for the same sample period 1995-2000. In this comparative framework a series of Granger causality tests and impulse response analysis were carried out to asses the strength of two major transmission channels: interest rate and exchange rate channel. Also in the empirical part, we tried to look for the existence of long-run relationships between the basic set of macroeconomic variables in the countries under investigation.

Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected Countries of Central and Eastern Europe

This study investigates the HBS effect in a panel of nine CEECs during 1993:Q1-2003:Q4 (unbalanced panel). Prior to estimating the model, we analyze several key assumptions of the model (e.g. wage equalisation, PPP and sectoral division) and elaborate on possible consequences of their failure to hold. In the empirical part of the paper, we check the level of integration of the variables in our panel using the Pedroni panel-stationarity tests. We then investigate the internal and external version of the HBS effect with the Pedroni panel-cointegration tests as well as by means of group-mean FMOLS and PMGE estimations to conclude that there is a strong evidence in support of the internal HBS and ambiguous evidence regarding the external HBS. Our estimates of the size of inflation and real appreciation consistent with the HBS effect turned out generally within the range of previous estimates in the literature (0-3 % per annum). However, we warn against drawing automatic policy conclusions based on these figures due to very strong assumptions on which they rest (which may not be met in near future). Finally, following the hypotheses put forward in the literature, we elaborate and attempt to evaluate empirically the potential impact of exchange rate regimes on the magnitude of the HBS effect.

Price Convergence in the Enlarged Internal Market

In this paper we investigate the effects of EU enlargement on price convergence. The internal market is expected to boost integration and increase efficiency and welfare through a convergence of prices in product markets. Two principal drivers are crucial to explain price developments. On the one hand, higher competition exerts a downward pressure on prices because of lower mark ups. On the other hand, the catching up process of low income countries leads to a rise in the price levels and higher inflation over a transition period. Using comparative price levels for individual product categories price convergence can be established. However, the speed of convergence is rather slow, with half lives around 10 years. The enlargement has slightly stimulated the convergence process, and this impact is robust across different groups of countries. Moreover, the driving forces of convergence are explored. In line with theoretical predictions, the rise in competition exerts a downward pressure on prices, Chile catching up of low income countries leads to a rise in price levels

Relative Prices and Inflation in Poland, 1989-97: The Special Role of Administered Price Increases

The author evaluates how much relative price shifts affected inflation in Poland between 1989 and 1997. He uses a theoretical model that predicts a positive relationship between variance and skewness in the distribution of relative price changes and the general inflation rate. Regressions controlling for various shocks revealed that significant relative price changes -- especially the large administered price increases associated with adjustment -- produced substantial upward inflationary pressures. Growth in money and wages were shown to fuel inflation. Appreciation of the real exchange rate lowered it. Administered price increases -- in utilities and other sectors controlled by the government -- dominated inflation from 1989-97. And the adjustment of many controlled prices is not yet complete. Ideally, future administered increases should be frequent and moderate to prevent the large price shifts that increase inflation. But because frequent price increases are likely to be politically unpopular, sizable increases may be in order so that the current underevaluation of numerous services will diminish more quickly.

On the cost of re-establishing Yugoslavia: first estimates of the economic impact on Montenegro of establishing a customs union with Serbia

A new state has recently been (re-)created: the ‘Union of Serbia and Montenegro’. Does this creation make economic sense? This article looks at one key aspect of this issue and presents some first estimates of the economic impact on Montenegro of unifying its tariffs with those of Serbia. The main result is that if the common state were to adopt tariff rates anything close to the present Serbian levels the welfare costs would be considerable, in the order of €20–40 million, or several per cent of Montenegrin GDP The exact amount depends of course on the common tariff schedule, which has still to be negotiated. But our calculations show that even an increase to the EU level would be painful for consumers in Montenegro.

Do Candidate Countries Fit the Optimum-Currency-Area Criteria?

This paper attempts to assess the degree to which CEE candidate countries fulfill Optimal Currency Area criteria set out in the literature. The literature review provided focuses on the seminal contributions of Mundell (1961) and McKinnon (1963) and later evolution of the theory as well as papers related to CEE candidate countries. The empirical analysis indicates that candidate countries are already very open to trade with the EU, in many cases much more open than the members of the EU themselves. Nonetheless, results of the static real activity comovements, with the exception of Hungary and Slovenia, point to weak or even negative correlations of shocks in the Euro-zone and respective acceding economies. Another approach pursued in the paper involves examining the nominal and real exchange rate variability to determine whether the exchange rate flexibility constitutes an important instrument of absorbing asymmetric shocks. From the comparison of the exchange rate stability in CEE with that of ClubMed countries in the years preceding the formation of the EMU it follows that the candidate countries as a group resemble the ClubMed countries in the early, rather than, mid 1990s.

Some Benefits of Reducing Inflation in Transition Economies

We analyse welfare effects of the interactions between the tax system and inflation in Poland and in Ukraine, using the framework developed by Feldstein (1997, 1999). This approach stresses the fact that inflation increases distortions created by the tax system, in particular distortions to intertemporal saving decisions. We find that the effects are much smaller in the two transition countries than in developed marketeconomies. The reason is that taxation of investment returns is much more limited. Our results suggest that taxes on investment returns should be avoided in any future redesign of the tax system.

Relative Prices and Inflation in Poland 1989-1997

This paper has been designed as an attempt to estimate the magnitude of the influence of relative price shifts on the overall price level in Poland during the transition period 1989-1997. For that purpose, the theoretical model has been found that builds on menu costs and trend inflation to derive a positive relationship between variance and skewness of the distribution of relative price changes and the general inflation. The model allowed to estimate the effect of relative price shifts within the framework controlling for nominal and real shocks. Using Polish data, a set of three versions of the model were estimated. All of them yielded high explanatory power and statistically significant coefficients on most variance and skewness variables thus giving a strong empirical support to the theoretical relationship. Larger shifts in relative prices accompanying the adjustment process and detected by higher va riance in the equation were proven to exert substantial upward pressure on inflation that persists over time. On the other hand, high positive skewness reflecting the domination of the adjustment process by few large increases was confirmed to produce contemporaneous upward impulse that tends to wear off after one quarter but is stronger in magnitude than that coming from higher variance. Including other explanatory variables like real exchange rate, wages and/or money allowed for observing the relative importance of inflationary factors. The analysis revealed that money and wages remain to be the main factors fueling inflation and can jointly account for almost three quarters of quarterly inflation. If their impact is evaluated separately, wages contribute about one half of inflation and domestic credit almost one third. On the other hand, real exchange rate appreciation was confirmed to significantly lower inflation. The measure based on different paces of inflation between tradables and non-tradables has proven to be a substantial dampening factor with an average elasticity of about minus three quarters.

Economic and Political Challenges of Acceding to the Euro Zone Area: The Case of Poland

The paper examines economic and political challenges of joining the euro area in the case of Poland. After reviewing the economic developments since the pre-accession period and assessing economic convergence with the euro area the paper focuses on the political and institutional challenges of acceding to the euro zone. Special attention is given to the effect of the crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman brothers in September 2008 on both political and economic dynamics of the process. The developments in parameters related to the economic and legal criteria for joining the euro area are scrutinized in detail during the entire period before and after the crisis. The paper is concluded with the review of the status quo in mid-2010 as well as summary and recommendations.

The Social Dimension in Selected Candidate Countries in the Balkans - Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Turkey: Synthesis Report

The European Commission awarded a contract in November 2005 to a consortium composed of the TARKI Social Research Institute (Hungary), CASE, Center for Social and Economic Research (Poland) and CEPS to analyse the socio-economic developments and the process of structural reforms in what were then four candidate countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey. The objective was to identify the major challenges in the current demographic, social and economic context that could be considered relevant in determining the capacity of these countries to function in the European Union. This study presents a synthesis of the findings for all four countries, and consists of an analytical section and a statistical annex. The four country reports are published separately in this same series.