Ksenija Zaninović

The bioclimatological leaflet as a means conveying climatological information to tourists and the tourism industry.

Climate is an important resource for tourism and must be taken into account in tourism promotions. Here, a climate leaflet containing climatological and bioclimatological information for tourists is presented. The bioclimatological conditions are portrayed using mean values and frequency of thermal sensation based on physiologically equivalent temperature for 10-day intervals covering the whole year, along with air and sea temperature, sunshine duration, amount and number of days with precipitation and wind roses. In addition, the Climate Tourism Information Scheme is included. When combined with climatological and bioclimatological conditions, this scheme is valuable for tourists as it enables them to choose the most suitable time period for holidays, with the choice depending on personal preferences and requirements. The information provided here assists the tourism industry and stakeholders in decision-making. As an example, the bioclimatological leaflet for Hvar, an island off the Croatian Adriatic coast, is presented.

Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling

Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies.

Impact of heat waves on mortality in Croatia

The aim of this work was to determine the criteria for heat loads associated with an increase in mortality in different climatic regions of Croatia. The relationship between heat stress and mortality was analysed for the period 1983–2008. The input series is excess mortality defined as the deviations of mortality from expected values determined by means of a Gaussian filter of 183xa0days. The assessment of the thermal environment was performed by means of physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The curve depicting the relationship between mortality and temperature has a U shape, with increased mortality in both the cold and warm parts of the scale but more pronounced in the warm part. The threshold temperature for increased mortality was determined using a scatter plot and fitting data by means of moving average of mortality; the latter is defined as the temperature at which excess mortality becomes significant. The values are higher in the continental part of Croatia than at the coast due to the refreshing influence of the sea during the day. The same analysis on a monthly basis shows that at the beginning of the warm season increased mortality occurs at a lower temperature compared with later on in the summer, and the difference is up to 15xa0°C between August and April. The increase in mortality is highest during the first 3–5xa0days and after that it decreases and falls below the expected value. Long-lasting heat waves present an increased risk, but in very long heat waves the increase in mortality is reduced due to mortality displacement.

Destination Climate Adaptation

A key element in the product mix of destinations is climate. Climate represents a critical part of a destination’s economic and resource base such that changes in climate will trigger human responses in terms of demand and the type of activities that the climate will support. This threatens the competitiveness, sustainability, and economic viability of destinations. This research note focuses on destination adaptation to climate change that is anticipatory not reactive, based on projecting future climate scenarios for a destination and then assessing the tourism products that the future climate will support. It outlines an original data-driven approach to adaptation that is generalizable to other destinations. The research note describes an exploratory research collaboration in Croatia between tourism and climate scientists that allows, first, the modeling of a destination’s projected climate conditions and, second, the products and activities that can be supported by these climate scenarios using climate indices for tourism.