Kwanho Suk

The Effect of Reference Point Diagnosticity on Attractiveness and Intentions Ratings

Researchers have long been interested in understanding cognitive processing differences across consumer judgments and choices. Although it represents a focal outcome in much research, less attention has focused on the “choice-like” response of behavioral intentions. This research compares processing differences in the formulation of judgments of attractiveness and intentions. On the basis of the premise that different goals underlie these responses, the authors hypothesize that alternative reference points result from differential reference point diagnosticity. The authors test this prediction in the domain of price attractiveness and purchase intentions ratings. Study 1 provides evidence that endpoints of the range of alternative prices are more predictive of ratings of price attractiveness than of purchase intentions, while price rank and distribution mean are more predictive of purchase intentions ratings than of price attractiveness ratings. Study 2 replicates this effect using a different methodology. Finally, Study 3 provides a test of the external validity of these findings in a multicue setting.

The Devil Is in the Specificity The Negative Effect of Prediction Specificity on Prediction Accuracy

In the research reported here, we proposed and demonstrated the prediction-specificity effect, which states that people’s prediction of the general outcome of an event (e.g., the winner of a soccer match) is less accurate when the prediction question is framed in a more specific manner (e.g., guessing the score) rather than in a less specific manner (e.g., guessing the winner). We demonstrated this effect by examining people’s predictions on actual sports games both in field and laboratory studies. In Study 1, the analysis of 19 billion bets from a commercial sports-betting business provided evidence for the effect of prediction specificity. This effect was replicated in three controlled laboratory studies, in which participants predicted the outcomes of a series of soccer matches. Furthermore, the negative effect of prediction specificity was mediated by participants’ underweighting of important holistic information during decision making.