Kyong-Hwan Seo

Impact of stratospheric ozone on Southern Hemisphere circulation change: A multimodel assessment

The impact of stratospheric ozone on the tropospheric general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is examined with a set of chemistry-climate models participating in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)/Chemistry-Climate Model Validation project phase 2 (CCMVal-2). Model integrations of both the past and future climates reveal the crucial role of stratospheric ozone in driving SH circulation change: stronger ozone depletion in late spring generally leads to greater poleward displacement and intensification of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and greater expansion of the SH Hadley cell in the summer. These circulation changes are systematic as poleward displacement of the jet is typically accompanied by intensification of the jet and expansion of the Hadley cell. Overall results are compared with coupled models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), and possible mechanisms are discussed. While the tropospheric circulation response appears quasi-linearly related to stratospheric ozone changes, the quantitative response to a given forcing varies considerably from one model to another. This scatter partly results from differences in model climatology. It is shown that poleward intensification of the westerly jet is generally stronger in models whose climatological jet is biased toward lower latitudes. This result is discussed in the context of quasi-geostrophic zonal mean dynamics.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high- and low-rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Evaluation of MJO Forecast Skill from Several Statistical and Dynamical Forecast Models

This work examines the performance of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts from NCEPs coupled and uncoupled general circulation models (GCMs) and statistical models. The forecast skill from these methods is evaluated in near-real time. Using a projection of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-removed variables onto the principal patterns of MJO convection and upper- and lower-level circulations, MJO-related signals in the dynamical model forecasts are extracted. The operational NCEP atmosphere-ocean fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) model has useful skill (.0.5 correlation) out to ;15 days when the initial MJO convection is located over the Indian Ocean. The skill of the CFS hindcast dataset for the period from 1995 to 2004 is nearly comparable to that from a lagged multiple linear regression model, which uses information from the previous five pentads of the leading two principal components (PCs). In contrast, the real-time analysis for the MJO forecast skill for the period from January 2005 to February 2006 using the lagged multiple linear regression modelisreducedto ;10-12days. However, theoperationalCFSforecastfor thisperiod is skillfulout to ;17 days for the winter season, implying that the coupled dynamical forecast has some usefulness in pre- dicting the MJO compared to the statistical model. It is shown that the coupled CFS model consistently, but only slightly, outperforms the uncoupled atmo- spheric model (by one to two days), indicating that only limited improvement is gained from the inclusion of the coupled air-sea interaction in the MJO forecast in this model. This slight improvement may be the result of the existence of a propagation barrier around the Maritime Continent and the far western Pacific in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) and CFS models, as shown in several previous studies. This work also suggests that the higher horizontal resolution and finer initial data might contribute to improving the forecast skill, presumably as a result of an enhanced representation of the Maritime Continent region.

The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System: The Effect of Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract Observational evidence has indicated the important role of the interaction of the atmosphere with the sea surface in the development and maintenance of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO). However, improvements in ISO simulations with fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are limited and model dependent. This study further examines the effect of air–sea coupling and the basic-state sea surface temperature (SST) associated with the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in a 21-yr free run with the recently developed NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. For this, the CFS run is compared with an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project–type long-term simulation forced by prescribed SST in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and flux-corrected version of CFS (referred to as CFSA). The GFS run simulates significantly unorganized BSISO convection anomalies, which exhibit an erroneous standing oscillation. The CFS run with interactive air–sea ...

The Global Atmospheric Circulation Response to Tropical Diabatic Heating Associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation during Northern Winter

AbstractThe detailed dynamical mechanisms of the upper-tropospheric circulation response to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) convection are examined by integrating a primitive equation model. A series of initial-value calculations with the climatological boreal winter background flow forced by the MJO-like thermal forcing successfully capture the key aspects of the observed circulation response to the MJO convection. This suggests that a large fraction of MJO-related circulation anomalies are direct responses to tropical heating in both the tropics and extratropics and can be largely explained by linear dynamics.It is found that MJO-like dipole heatings not only intensify tropical upper-tropospheric anomalies but also weaken them at certain regions because of the interaction between equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves. The Rossby wave train primarily excited by horizontal divergence of upper-level perturbation flow propagates northeastward and then heads back to the equator. In this way, Rossby wave act...

The Madden–Julian Oscillation Simulated in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Model: The Importance of Stratiform Heating

Abstract This study investigates the capability for simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) in a series of atmosphere–ocean coupled and uncoupled simulations using NCEP operational general circulation models. The effect of air–sea coupling on the MJO is examined by comparing long-term simulations from the coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS T62) and the atmospheric Global Forecast System (GFS T62) models. Another coupled simulation with a higher horizontal resolution model (CFS T126) is performed to investigate the impact of model horizontal resolution. Furthermore, to examine the impact on a deep convection scheme, an additional coupled T126 run (CFS T126RAS) is conducted with the relaxed Arakawa–Schubert (RAS) scheme. The most important factors for the proper simulation of the MJO are investigated from these runs. The empirical orthogonal function, lagged regression, and spectral analyses indicated that the interactive air–sea coupling greatly improved the coherence between convection, circulati...

Assessing future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon using CMIP5 coupled models

Future changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are estimated from historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) experiments of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The historical runs show that, like the CMIP3 models, the CMIP5 models produce slightly smaller precipitation. A moisture budget analysis illustrates that this precipitation deficit is due to an underestimation in evaporation and ensuing moisture flux convergence. Of the two components of the moisture flux convergence (i.e., moisture convergence and horizontal moist advection), moisture convergence associated with mass convergence is underestimated to a greater degree. Precipitation is anticipated to increase by 10%‐15% toward the end of the twenty-first century over the major monsoonal front region. A statistically significant increase is predicted to occur mostly over the Baiu region and to the north and northeast of the Korean Peninsula. This increase is attributed to an increase in evaporation and moist flux convergence (with enhanced moisture convergence contributing the most) induced by the northwestward strengthening of the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH), a characteristic feature of the future EASM that occurred in CMIP5 simulations. Along the northern and northwestern flank of the strengthened NPSH, intensified southerly or southwesterly winds lead to the increase in moist convergence, enhancing precipitation over these areas. However, future precipitation over the East China Sea is projected to decrease. In the EASM domain, a local mechanism prevails, with increased moisture and moisture convergence leading to a greater increase in moist static energy in the lower troposphere than in the upper troposphere, reducing tropospheric stability.

Relationship between ENSO and northward propagating intraseasonal oscillation in the east Asian summer monsoon system

(1) Observational studies are presented on the relationship between El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the northward propagating intraseasonal oscillation (NPISO) in the east Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system. The summer NPISO activity shows a significant correlation with the preceding winter extreme phase of ENSO cycles. A higher correlation appears during late summer, which is consistent with frequent heavy rainfall events at that time as revealed in some previous case studies. The westward expansion of broad anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific and the smaller cyclonic circulation around Korea and Japan are found to be associated with the NPISO activity. ENSO affects the late summer NPISO activity through an atmospheric bridge and wave propagation; the springtime Indian Ocean sea surface temperature warming induced by ENSO through the Walker circulation leads to the downward motion and suppressed convection over the Philippine Sea, and this generates the forced Rossby wave train, forming the above south-to-north low-level circulation anomalies.

Interdecadal Change in the Relationship between ENSO and the Intraseasonal Oscillation in East Asia

Abstract The northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation (NPISO) during the boreal summer is closely linked to the onset/retreat and intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). In this study, interdecadal variability in the relationships between the NPISO and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was investigated using long-term outgoing longwave radiation data obtained from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) for a 44-yr period (1958 to 2001). It was found that before the late 1970s, the preceding winter ENSO influenced the early summer (i.e., May to June) NPISO activity, whereas after the late 1970s a strong relationship appeared during the later summertime (i.e., July to August). The May–June NPISO before the late 1970s was modulated by springtime Indian Ocean sea surface temperature warming and central North Pacific suppressed convection anomalies and was consequently related to the ENSO-induced west Pacific (WP) pattern, which shows a north–south dipole structure over the North Pacific from...

Future Change of Northern Hemisphere Summer Tropical–Extratropical Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models*

Two dominant global-scale teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropics during boreal summer season (June‐August) have been identified: the western North Pacific‐North America (WPNA) and circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns. These teleconnection patterns are of critical importance for the NH summer seasonal climate prediction. Here, how these teleconnections will change under anthropogenic global warming is investigated using representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) experiments by 20 coupled models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The six best models are selected based on their performance in simulation of the two teleconnection patterns and climatological means and variances of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and sea surface temperature. The selected models capture the CGT and its relationship with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) reasonably well. The models can also capture the WPNA circulation pattern but with striking deficiencies in reproducing its associated rainfall anomalies due to poor simulation of the western North Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. The following changes are anticipatedin thelatterhalf of twenty-first centuryundertheRCP4.5scenario:1)significant weakening of year-to-year variability of the upper-level circulation due to increased atmospheric stability, although the moderate increase in convective heating over the tropics may act to strengthen the variability; 2) intensification of the WPNA pattern and major spectral peaks, particularly over the eastern Pacific‐North America and North Atlantic‐Europe sectors, which is attributed to the strengthening of its relationship with the preceding mature phase of El Ni~ Oscillation (ENSO); and 3) weakening of the CGT due to atmospheric stabilization and decreasing relationship with ISM as well as weakening of the ISM‐ ENSO relationship.