L. A. H. Critchley

A Meta-Analysis of Studies Using Bias and Precision Statistics to Compare Cardiac Output Measurement Techniques

Introduction. Bias and precision statistics have succeeded regression analysis when measurement techniques are compared. However, when applied to cardiac output measurements, inconsistencies occur in reporting the results of this form of analysis. Methods. A MEDLINE search was performed, dating from 1986. Studies comparing techniques of cardiac output measurement using bias and precision statistics were surveyed. An error-gram was constructed from the percentage errors in the test and reference methods and was used to determine acceptable limits of agreement between methods. Results. Twenty-five articles were found. Presentation of statistical data varied greatly. Four different statistical parameters were used to describe the agreement between measurements. The overall limits of agreement in studies evaluating bioimpedance (n = 23) was ±37% (15–82%) and in those evaluating Doppler ultrasound (n = 11) ±65% (25–225%). Objective criteria used to assess outcome were given in only 44% of the articles. These were (i) limits of agreement approaching ±15–20%, (ii) limits of agreement of less than 1 L/min, and (iii) more than 75% of bias measurements within ±20% of the mean. Graphically, we showed that limits of agreement of up to ±30% were acceptable. Conclusions. When using bias and precision statistics, cardiac output, bias, limits of agreement, and percentage error should be presented. Using current reference methods, acceptance of a new technique should rely on limits of agreement of up to ±30%.

A Critical Review of the Ability of Continuous Cardiac Output Monitors to Measure Trends in Cardiac Output

Numerous cardiac output (CO) monitors have been produced that provide continuous rather than intermittent readings. Bland and Altman has become the standard method for validating their performance against older standards. However, the Bland and Altman method only assesses precision and does not assess how well a device detects serial changes in CO (trending ability). Currently, there is no consensus on how trending ability, or trend analysis, should be performed. Therefore, we performed a literature review to identify articles published between 1997 and 2009 that compared methods of continuous CO measurement. Identified articles were grouped according to measurement technique and statistical methodology. Articles that analyzed trending ability were reviewed with the aim of finding an acceptable statistical method. Two hundred two articles were identified. The most popular methods were pulse contour (69 articles), Doppler (54), bioimpedance (38), and transpulmonary or continuous thermodilution (27). Forty-one articles addressed trending, and of these only 23 provided an in-depth analysis. Several common statistical themes were identified: time plots, regression analysis, Bland and Altman using change in CO (&Dgr;CO), and the 4-quadrant plot, which used direction of change of &Dgr;CO to determine the concordance. This plot was further refined by exclusion of data when values were small. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to define the exclusion zone. In animal studies, a reliable reference standard such as an aortic flowprobe was frequently used, and regression or time plots could be used to show trending. Clinical studies were more problematic because data collection points were fewer (8–10 per subject). The consensus was to use the 4-quadrant plot with exclusion zones and apply concordance analysis. A concordance rate of >92% when using a 15% zone indicated good trending. A new method of presenting trend data (&Dgr;CO) on a polar plot is proposed. Agreement was shown by the angle with the horizontal axis and &Dgr;CO by the distance from the center. Trending can be assessed by the vertical limits of the data, similar to the Bland and Altman method.

Prevalence of survivor bias in observational studies on fresh frozen plasma: erythrocyte ratios in trauma requiring massive transfusion

Observational studies on transfusion in trauma comparing high versus low plasma:erythrocyte ratio were prone to survivor bias because plasma administration typically started later than erythrocytes. Therefore, early deaths were categorized in the low plasma:erythrocyte group, whereas early survivors had a higher chance of receiving a higher ratio. When early deaths were excluded, however, a bias against higher ratio can be created. Survivor bias could be reduced by performing before-and-after studies or treating the plasma:erythrocyte ratio as a time-dependent covariate. We reviewed 26 studies on blood ratios in trauma. Fifteen of the studies were survivor bias-unlikely or biased against higher ratio; among them, 10 showed an association between higher ratio and improved survival, and five did not. Eleven studies that were judged survivor bias-prone favoring higher ratio suggested that a higher ratio was superior. Without randomized controlled trials controlling for survivor bias, the current available evidence supporting higher plasma:erythrocyte resuscitation is inconclusive.

Does Thromboelastography Predict Postoperative Thromboembolic Events? A Systematic Review of the Literature

BACKGROUND: Since thromboelastography (TEG) can detect hypercoagulable states, it is a potentially useful test for predicting postoperative thromboembolic complications. Therefore, we performed a systematic review of the literature to evaluate the accuracy of TEG in predicting postoperative thromboembolic events. METHODS: PUBMED and EMBASE electronic databases were searched by two independent investigators to identify prospective studies involving adult patients undergoing operative procedures in which a TEG test was performed perioperatively and outcomes were measured by reference standards. The quality of included studies was assessed and measures of diagnostic test accuracy were estimated for each included study. RESULTS: Ten studies (with a total of 1056 patients) were included in this analysis; however, only five reported measures of TEG test accuracy. The overall quality of the studies and level of diagnostic evaluation of the studies were highly variable, from poor to good. As there were variations in the definition of hypercoagulability, TEG methodology and patient characteristics, reference standards used and outcomes measured, a meta-analysis was not undertaken. The sensitivity and specificity ranged from 0% to 100% and 62% to 92%, respectively. The diagnostic odds ratio ranged from 1.5 to 27.7; area under the curve ranged from 0.57 to 0.91. Of the TEG variables, maximum amplitude seems to be the best parameter to identify hypercoagulable states and to predict thromboembolic events. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive accuracy of TEG for postoperative thromboembolic events is highly variable. To determine if the TEG is a clinically useful screening test in high-risk surgical populations, more prospective studies are needed.

Hypotension, subarachnoid block and the elderly patient

This article reviews the current literature on the management of hypotension during subarachnoid block in the elderly. Hypotension results from blockade of the sympathetic nervous system, which causes decreases in both systemic vascular resistance and cardiac output. Abolition of normal cardiovascular reflexes is also important and may explain unexpected cardiac arrests during subarachnoid block. Untreated block in the elderly results in decreases in systolic arterial pressure, systemic vascular resistance and central venous pressure. Cardiac output appears not to decrease as has been previously reported and heart rate is affected by several different factors. Preload to the heart should be maintained during block by giving adequate intravenous fluids and 8 ml. kg−1 is satisfactory in most cases. Adequate preloading prevents decreases in cardiac output and unexpected cardiac arrests. In this respect, mild head down tilt is also beneficial. Ideally, intravenous fluid should be given as the block is developing. Excessive fluid administration serves no useful purpose and can cause fluid overload and urinary retention. If systolic arterial pressure decreases by more than 25%, or to below 90 mmHg, treatment with a vasopressor is indicated. The efficacy of ephedrine has recently been questioned, as it is a poor vasoconstrictor and inotrope in the elderly. The α‐adrenoceptor agonists may prove a more logical choice, because they increase both peripheral resistance and preload. Metaraminol by infusion (< 10 ml.h−1 of 10 mg in 20ml) has been used successfully, though hypertension can occur.

Testing the Reliability of a New Ultrasonic Cardiac Output Monitor, the USCOM, by Using Aortic Flowprobes in Anesthetized Dogs

We have used an animal model to test the reliability of a new portable continuous-wave Doppler ultrasonic cardiac output monitor, the USCOM. In six anesthetized dogs, cardiac output was measured with a high-precision transit time ultrasonic flowprobe placed on the ascending aorta. The dogs’ cardiac output was increased with a dopamine infusion (0–15 &mgr;g · kg−1 · min−1). Simultaneous flowprobe and USCOM cardiac output measurements were made. Up to 64 pairs of readings were collected from each dog. Data were compared by using the Bland and Altman plot method and Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient. A total of 319 sets of paired readings were collected. The mean (±sd) cardiac output was 2.62 ± 1.04 L/min, and readings ranged from 0.79 to 5.73 L/min. The mean bias between the 2 sets of readings was −0.0l L/min, with limits of agreement (95% confidence intervals) of −0.34 to 0.31 L/min. This represents a ±13% error. In five of six dogs, there was a high degree of concordance, or agreement, between the 2 methods, with coefficients >0.9. The USCOM provided reliable measurements of cardiac output over a wide range of values. Clinical trials are needed to validate the device in humans.

Evaluation of a new software version of the FloTrac/Vigileo (version 3.02) and a comparison with previous data in cirrhotic patients undergoing liver transplant surgery.

BACKGROUND: Reliable cardiac output monitoring is particularly useful in the cirrhotic patient undergoing liver transplant surgery, because cirrhosis of the liver is associated with a vasodilated and high output state, known as cirrhotic cardiomyopathy, that challenges the reliability of pulse contour cardiac output technology. The contractility of the ventricle in cirrhosis is impaired, which is tolerated even though the ejection fraction and cardiac output are elevated because of the low peripheral resistance. However, during surgery the cirrhotic patient can decompensate because of the physiological changes and stress of surgery. Recently, we showed that the FloTrac/Vigileo™ failed to perform in cirrhotic patients undergoing transplant surgery. In response, the company upgraded their software. Therefore, we have assessed the accuracy and reliability of this new third-generation (version 3.02) FloTrac/Vigileo algorithm software in the same setting. METHODS: The cardiac index was measured simultaneously by single-bolus thermodilution (CITD), using a pulmonary artery catheter, and pulse contour analysis, using the FloTrac/Vigileo (CIV). Readings were made at 10 time points during and after liver transplant surgery in 21 patients. Comparisons with data from our 2009 study, which used second-generation (version 01.10) software, were also made. RESULTS: Our new data show that version 3.02 software significantly reduced the adverse effect on pulse contour cardiac output reading bias in low peripheral resistance states, and thus improves the overall precision and trending ability of the system. Regression analysis between CITD and CIV showed that the correlation was moderate (r =0.67, 95% confidence interval, 0.40 to 0.86). The Bland and Altman analysis showed that bias was 0.4 L.min−1 · m−2, and the percentage error was 52% (95% confidence interval, 49% to 55%). Trending ability of the new software also was improved but was still well below the current benchmarks. CONCLUSION: The new software (version 3.02) provided substantial improvements over the previous versions with better overall precision and trending ability. Further algorithm refinements will increase this technology’s reliability to be extensively used in the highly complex setting of cirrhotic patients undergoing liver transplantation.

Acute pain management of patients with multiple fractured ribs: a focus on regional techniques.

Purpose of reviewThoracic trauma leading to multiple fractured ribs (MFR) remains very common. Good analgesia may help to improve a patients respiratory mechanics and to avoid intubation of the trachea for ventilatory support and therefore may dramatically alter the course of recovery. We herein review the analgesia options for patients with MFR. Recent findingsFor healthy patients with one to two fractured ribs, systemic analgesics may suffice. For more than three to four fractured ribs, studies and experience have reaffirmed the superior analgesia made possible with thoracic epidural, thoracic paravertebral, and intercostal blocks. From experience, interpleural block has significant drawbacks. Catheterization allows the continuation of analgesia for 2 or more days with just one block. Use of the landmark technique is usually satisfactory for accurate block placement but ultrasound and nerve stimulation are showing promise in further improving needle and catheter placement accuracy, especially in the presence of difficult anatomy. SummaryThoracic epidural, thoracic paravertebral, and intercostal blocks are the top choices for patients with MFR and they are of equivalent efficacy. Each has unique advantages and disadvantages. Our preference tends to be the thoracic paravertebral approach.

Impedance cardiographyThe impact of new technology

The 1990s have witnessed major advances in impedance cardiography technology. Problems existed with the methods used to calculate cardiac output. Excessive lung fluid, as often found in critically ill patients, may also invalidate measurements. The signal processing and measurement techniques used in older systems were deficient. The newer systems, of which there are at least six, incorporate novel and improved signal processing techniques. They also offer analog visual displays, personal computer interfacing, sophisticated analytical software and haemodynamic patient management systems. Evaluation of these systems is difficult because no true ‘gold standard’ method of cardiac output measurement exists. When compared with thermodilution techniques, limits of agreement of ± 20–30% seem acceptable. These limits can be achieved in normal subjects but not in critically ill patients. Validation data are available for only half of the new systems. Until recently, the main application for impedance cardiography has been research but improved accuracy should lead to increased clinical usage.

Haemodynamic effects from aortocaval compression at different angles of lateral tilt in non-labouring term pregnant women

BACKGROUND Aortocaval compression (ACC) can result in haemodynamic disturbances and uteroplacental hypoperfusion in parturients. Its detection is difficult because in most patients, sympathetic compensation results in no signs or symptoms. However, profound hypotension may develop after sympathectomy during regional anaesthesia. In this prospective observational study, we aimed to detect ACC by analysing haemodynamic changes in term parturients who were positioned sequentially at different angles of lateral tilt. METHODS We studied haemodynamic changes in 157 non-labouring term parturients who were positioned in random order at 0°, 7.5°, 15°, and full left lateral tilt. Cardiac output (CO), stroke volume, and systemic vascular resistance were derived using suprasternal Doppler. Non-invasive arterial pressure (AP) measured in the upper and lower limbs was analysed to detect aortic compression. RESULTS CO was on average 5% higher when patients were tilted at ≥15° compared with <15°. In a subgroup of patients (n=11), CO decreased by more than 20%, without changes in systolic AP, when they were tilted to <15° which was considered attributable to severe inferior vena caval compression. Only one patient in the supine position had aortic compression with the systolic AP in the upper limb 25 mm Hg higher than the lower limb. CONCLUSIONS Patients with ACC can be identified by the CO changes from serial measurements between supine, 15°, or full lateral tilt. Our findings suggest that in non-labouring parturients, ACC is asymptomatic and can be effectively minimized by the use of a left lateral tilt of 15° or greater.