L. Cantore

Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation

We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead-Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S-wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the systems capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.

Development and Testing of an Advanced Monitoring Infrastructure (ISNet) for Seismic Early-warning Applications in the Campania Region of Southern Italy

In the framework of an ongoing project financed by the Campania Region, a prototype system for seismic early and post-event warning is being developed and tested, based on a dense, wide dynamic seismic network (ISNet) and under installation in the Apennine belt region.