Ladislav Rabušic

Will we Witness an Upturn in European Fertility in the Near Future

Fertility in many European countries is not only low, but very low, and in some even lowest low. What fertility levels are going to prevail in the near future? Firstly, some indicators of the “fertility climate” are presented. The study shows that a country’s actual level of fertility correlates to people’s attitudes on how fertility should be dealt with on a societal level. Secondly, levels of expected fertility, so-called “hypothetical completed fertility” (HCF), are calculated on the basis of the information on individually-expressed intentions in the IPPAS database. The structure of the HCF indicator is analysed, together with its interrelation with the “value-of-children” indicator. Multinomial regression is performed to find the net effects of factors which we regard as relevant to expected fertility. Finally, we will speculate on the future of European fertility and on the framework within which it operates.

Plodnost a preferenční teorie v České republice – nové metodologické a empirické poznatky

The present article introduces a new operationalization of preference theory in the Czech Republic; and tests if fertility differs in terms of life-style preferences using data from a survey of men and women in post-reproductive period (aged 40 +) of the life cycle. This study has three main parts. First, it introduces and discusses a new operationalization of life-style preferences that can be applied for both men and women. Secondly, this paper presents the distribution of life-style preferences among males and females in the Czech population. In the final part, the authors test whether this new typology is a good predictor of Czech fertility levels, and highlight the differences in fertility between men and women by lifestyle preferences.

Only Fools Rush In

Age at retirement and age of exit from the labour market have become an important issue in ageing European societies. This paper deals with the perspective that people aged 45–64 have towards the timing of their retirement. We examine the question of the preferred and expected ages at retirement and introduce the concept of “desire to retire early”. Using the results of the PPAS, the paper uncovers the paradox of early retirement. Our respondents know that their societies are ageing and that their own lives are going to be longer, resulting in a higher proportion of old-age pensioners. Today’s old-age pension systems in many cases have quite a substantial impact on the standard of living of new retirees. However, our respondents indicate a considerable desire to retire early no matter these facts and regardless of their country of residence, gender and other factors. This desire to retire early does not seem to have a strong influence on whether they favour various policy measures.