Lans P. Rothfusz

MPING: Crowd-Sourcing Weather Reports for Research

The Weather Service Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) network within the United States has recently been upgraded to include dual-polarization capability. Among the expectations that have resulted from the upgrade is the ability to discriminate between different precipitation types in winter precipitation events. To know how well any such algorithm performs and whether new algorithms are an improvement, observations of winter precipitation type are needed. Unfortunately, the automated observing systems cannot discriminate between some of the more important types. Thus, human observers are needed. Yet, to deploy dedicated human observers is impractical because the knowledge needed to identify the various precipitation types is common among the public. To most efficiently gather such observations would require the public to be engaged as citizen scientists using a very simple, convenient, nonintrusive method. To achieve this, a simple “app” called mobile Precipitation Identification Near the Ground (mPING) was d...

An Overview of NWS Weather Support for the XXVI Olympiad

Abstract The 1996 Centennial Olympic Games in Atlanta, Georgia, received weather support from the National Weather Service (NWS). The mandate to provide this support gave the NWS an unprecedented opportunity to employ in an operational setting several tools and practices similar to those planned for the “modernized” era of the NWS. The project also provided a glimpse of technology and practices not planned for the NWS modernization, but that might be valuable in the future. The underlying purpose of the project was to protect the life and property of the two million spectators, athletes, volunteers, and officials visiting and/or participating in the games. While there is no way to accurately account for lives and property that were protected by the NWS support, the absence of weather-related deaths, significant injuries, and damaged property during the games despite an almost daily occurrence of thunderstorms, high temperatures, and/or rain indicates that the project was a success. In fact, popular percep...

Warning Operations in Support of the 1996 Centennial Olympic Games

Abstract During the summer of 1996, the National Weather Service (NWS) provided weather support for the Centennial Olympic Games in Atlanta, Georgia. This weather support effort presented many challenges, particularly in the area of providing short—term forecast (watch) and warning support. Topping the list of challenges was working with a customer with different weather information needs than the general public. The needs of the venue and competition management were much more detailed than the NWS traditionally is accustomed to and the thresholds for various phenomena were very low (e.g., warnings for the occurrence of any rain were issued rather than the more traditional NWS severe thunderstorm warning). This paper discusses many of the challenges faced and met by the Olympic Weather Support Office (OWSO). Details are provided on the weather warning requirements of the Olympic venue and competition management, the watch/warning strategy utilized by the OWSO, and the resulting performance of the office. ...

Comparing Effectiveness of Four Graphical Designs for Probabilistic Hazard Information for Tornado Threat

Finding effective measures to decrease the nation’s loss resulting from severe weather is crucial. Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) system is being developed for severe weather forecasting. Little work has been done to investigate which kind of graphical designs for PHI can increase users’ perception and interpretation, and elicit the best user response to the threats. This study investigates the effects of varying graphical designs for tornado threat. Four designs, “four colors”,” red scale”, “gray scale” and “contour” were tested. Radar was provided for one set of treatments, the other without radar. Analysis showed response time significantly decreased for designs without radar. “Without radar” displays helped participants make significantly more accurate decisions than “with radar” displays. Participant’s preference, the “four colors” design, was the most effective choice among “without radar” displays. For “Without radar” displays, “gray scale” design results in higher accuracy for interpreting threat information and choosing appropriate responses.

Effective Method to Convey Threat Information for Tornado: Probabilistic Hazard Information vs. Deterministic Hazard Information

Effective conveyance of hazard information to society is crucial for enhancing public preparedness for the uncertainty involved in the occurrence of tornadoes. The WarnGen system is currently used for issuing deterministic severe weather warnings. To provide society with probabilistic weather information, researchers at The National Severe Storm Laboratory are developing a tool called Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI). The current study reports an experiment intended to figure out if including information about the uncertainty of a tornado occurrence provided through PHI would help people understand the weather information better and take more appropriate protective action. Our group also wanted to investigate if including probabilistic information about the surrounding area of the target zone would be effective in people’s decision making regarding their safety. The results show that including information about uncertainty in the weather information makes it more effective than the deterministic hazard information in terms of perception, cognition, and protective actions of recipients. Also, presence of information about the target zone’s surrounding area does not have any significant effect on their decision making.

A Comparison Between WarnGen System and Probabilistic Hazard Information System for Severe Weather Forecasting

To increase the nation’s preparedness for severe weather, it is important to design effective ways to communicate severe weather information. This study reports an experiment conducted in the 2014 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) comparing the deterministic severe weather warning system WarnGen, and a prototype Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) system. Six National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters used both systems to forecast severe hail events. With minimal training, the PHI system received similar levels of system usability and weather situation awareness rating as the WarnGen system. Meanwhile, the PHI system resulted in significantly less temporal stress for the forecaster and all forecasters preferred the prototype PHI system to the WarnGen system. Forecasters believed the PHI system allowed them to convey richer and better weather information to the public, which could result in better service overall.

Development of a Human–Machine Mix for Forecasting Severe Convective Events

AbstractProviding advance warning for impending severe convective weather events (i.e., tornadoes, hail, wind) fundamentally requires an ability to predict and/or detect these hazards and subsequently communicate their potential threat in real time. The National Weather Service (NWS) provides advance warning for severe convective weather through the issuance of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings, a system that has remained relatively unchanged for approximately the past 65 years. Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) proposes a reinvention of this system, transitioning from a deterministic product-centric paradigm to one based on probabilistic hazard information (PHI) for hazardous weather events. Four years of iterative development and rapid prototyping in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) with NWS forecasters and partners has yielded insights into this new paradigm by discovering efficient ways to generate, inform, and ut...

Summary of National Weather Service Aviation Workshop Kansas City, Missouri, 10–12 December 1991

The National Weather Service sponsored a workshop on aviation weather on 10–12 December 1991, in Kansas City, Missouri. The theme of the workshop was the improvement of service to the aviation comm...