Lanzhi Lü

Thermal regime of warm-dry permafrost in relation to ground surface temperature in the Source Areas of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, SW China

Ecology, hydrology, and natural resources in the source areas of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers (SAYYR) are closely linked to interactions between climate and permafrost. However, a comprehensive study of the interactions is currently hampered by sparsely- and unevenly-distributed monitoring sites and limited field investigations. In this study, the thermal regime of warm-dry permafrost in the SAYYR was systematically analyzed based on extensive data collected during 2010-2016 of air temperature (Ta), ground surface temperature (GST) and ground temperature across a range of areas with contrasting land-surface characteristics. Mean annual Ta (MAAT) and mean annual GST (MAGST) were regionally averaged at -3.19±0.71°C and -0.40±1.26°C. There is a close relationship between GST and Ta (R2=0.8477) as obtained by a linear regression analysis with all available daily averages. The mean annual temperature at the bottom of the active layer (TTOP) was regionally averaged at -0.72±1.01°C and mostly in the range of -1.0°C and 0°C except at Chalaping (~-2.0°C). Surface offset (MAGST-MAAT) was regionally averaged at 2.54±0.71°C. Thermal offset (TTOP-MAGST) was regionally averaged at -0.17±0.84°C, which was generally within -0.5°C and 0.5°C. Relatively consistent thermal conductivity between the thawed and frozen states of the soils may be responsible for the small thermal offset. Active layer thickness was generally smaller at Chalaping than that on other parts of the QTP, presumably due to smaller climatic continentality index and the thermal dampening of surface temperature variability under the presence of dense vegetation and thick peaty substrates. We conclude that the accurate mapping of permafrost on the rugged elevational QTP could be potentially obtained by correlating the parameters of GST, thermal offset, and temperature gradient in the shallow permafrost.

Evolution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the Late Quaternary

Due to the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the cryosphere gradually developed on the higher mountain summits after the Neocene, becoming widespread during the Late Quaternary. During this time, permafrost on the QTP experienced repeated expansion and degradation. Based on the remains and cross-correlation with other proxy records such as those from glacial landforms, ice-core and paleogeography, the evolution and changes of permafrost and environmental changes on the QTP during the past 150, 000 years were deduced and are presented in this paper. At least four obvious cycles of the extensive and intensive development, expansion and decay of permafrost occurred during the periods of 150-130, 80-50, 30-14 and after 10.8 ka B.P.. During the Holocene, fluctuating climatic environments affected the permafrost on the QTP, and the peripheral mountains experienced six periods of discernible permafrost changes:(1) Stable development of permafrost in the early Holocene (10.8 to 8.5-7.0 ka B.P.); (2) Intensive permafrost degradation during the Holocene Megathermal Period (HMP, from 8.5-7.0 to 4.0-3.0 ka B.P.); (3) Permafrost expansion during the early Neoglacial period (ca. 4, 000-3, 000 to 1, 000 a B.P.); (4) Relative degradation during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, from 1, 000 to 500 a B.P.); (5) Expansion of permafrost during the Little Ice Age (LIA, from 500 to 100 a B.P.); (6) Observed and predicted degradation of permafrost during the 20 th and 21 st century. Each period differed greatly in paleoclimate, paleoenvironment, and permafrost distribution, thickness, areal extent, and ground temperatures, as well as in the development of periglacial phenomena. Statistically, closer dating of the onset permafrost formation, more identification of permafrost remains with richer proxy information about paleoenvironment, and more dating information enable higher resolution for paleo-permafrost reconstruction. Based on the scenarios of persistent climate warming of 2.2~2.6℃ in the next 50 years, and in combination of the monitored trends of climate and permafrost changes, and model predictions suggest an accelerated regional degradation of plateau permafrost. Therefore, during the first half of the 21 st century, profound changes in the stability of alpine ecosystems and hydro (geo) logical environments in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers may occur. The foundation stability of key engineering infrastructures and sustainable economic development in cold regions on the QTP may be affected.