Larry R. Johnson

Projection of Chinese Motor Vehicle Growth, Oil Demand, and CO2 Emissions Through 2050

During this study a methodology was developed to project growth trends of the motor vehicle population and associated oil demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China through 2050. In particular, the numbers of highway vehicles, motorcycles, and rural vehicles were projected under three scenarios of vehicle growth by following different patterns of motor vehicle growth in Europe and Asia. Projections showed that by 2030 China could have more highway vehicles than the United States has today. Three scenarios of vehicle fuel economy were also developed on the basis of current and future policy efforts to reduce vehicle fuel consumption in China and in developed countries. With the vehicle population projections and potential vehicle fuel economy data, it was projected that in 2050 Chinas on-road vehicles could consume approximately 614 million to 1,016 million metric tons of oil (or 12.4 million to 20.6 million barrels per day) and emit 1.9 billion to 3.2 billion metric tons (or 2.1 billion to 3.5 billion tons) of CO2 each year. Although these projections by no means imply what will happen in the Chinese transportation sector by 2050, they do demonstrate that an uncontained growth in motor vehicles and only incremental efforts to improve fuel economy will certainly result in severe consequences for oil use and CO2 emissions in China.

Potential of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles to Reduce Petroleum Use: Issues Involved in Developing Reliable Estimates

This paper delineates the various issues involved in developing reliable estimates of the petroleum use reduction that would result from the widespread introduction of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Travel day data from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) were analyzed to identify the share of vehicle miles of travel (VMT) that could be transferred to grid electricity. Various PHEV charge-depleting (CD) ranges were evaluated, and 100% CD mode and potential blended modes were analyzed. The NHTS data were also examined to evaluate the potential for PHEV battery charging multiple times a day. Data from the 2005 American Housing Survey (AHS) were analyzed to evaluate the availability of garages and carports for at-home charging of the PHEV battery. The AHS data were also reviewed by census region and household location within or outside metropolitan statistical areas. To illustrate the lag times involved, the historical new vehicle market share increases for the diesel power train in France (a highly successful case) and the emerging hybrid electric vehicles in the United States were examined. A new vehicle technology substitution model is applied to illustrate a historically plausible successful new PHEV market share expansion. The trends in U.S. light-duty vehicle sales and light-duty vehicle stock were evaluated to estimate the time required for hypothetical successful new PHEVs to achieve the ultimately attainable share of the existing vehicle stock. Only when such steps have been accomplished will the full oil savings potential for the nation be achieved.

Potential Benefits of Superconductivity to Transportation in the United States

Research in U.S. transportation applications of superconductors is strongly motivated by a number of potential national benefits. These include the reduction of dependence on petroleum-based fuels, energy savings, substantially reduced air and noise pollution, increased customer convenience, and reduced maintenance costs. Current transportation technology offers little flexibility to switch to alternative fuels, and efforts to achieve the other benefits are confounded by growing congestion at airports and on urban roadways. A program has been undertaken to identify possible applications of the emerging superconducting applications to transportation and to evaluate potential national benefits. The current phase of the program will select the most promising applications for a more detailed subsequent study. Transportation modes being examined include highway and industrial vehicles, as well as rail, sea, and air transport and pipelines. Three strategies are being considered: (1) replacing present components with those employing superconductors, (2) substituting new combinations of components or systems for present systems, and (3) developing completely new technologies. Distinctions are made between low-, medium-, and near-room-temperature superconductors. The most promising applications include magnetically levitated passenger and freight vehicles; replacement of drive systems in locomotives, self-propelled rail cars, and ships; and electric vehicles inductively coupled to electrified roadways.

Markets for high-speed intercity maglev technology : a systems analysis approach

The technical feasibility of constructing and operating maglev vehicles at speeds of 250-300 mph has been amply demonstrated and is accepted here as a reality. In this paper, the markets into which passenger- or freight-carrying systems based on this technology can be introduced with economic reasonableness are evaluated. The characteristics and capabilities (particularly the capacity and comparative costs) of the system are enumerated and discussed from the points of view of the passengers, the airlines (as potential operators), and the traveling public. It is shown that if the system is integrated into the existing transportation system as a supplement to the airline system, it meets the criteria required for the introduction of any new product or service into a market. The financial enhancement of the maglev system resulting from the use of trunk routes with feeder lines diverging to various ultimate destinations becomes an extremely important consideration.