Christopher L. Saricks

Effects of Fuel Ethanol Use on Fuel-Cycle Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

We estimated the effects on per-vehicle-mile fuel-cycle petroleum use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy use of using ethanol blended with gasoline in a mid-size passenger car, compared with the effects of using gasoline in the same car. Our analysis includes petroleum use, energy use, and emissions associated with chemicals manufacturing, farming of corn and biomass, ethanol production, and ethanol combustion for ethanol; and petroleum use, energy use, and emissions associated with petroleum recovery, petroleum refining, and gasoline combustion for gasoline. For corn-based ethanol, the key factors in determining energy and emissions impacts include energy and chemical usage intensity of corn farming, energy intensity of the ethanol plant, and the method used to estimate energy and emissions credits for co-products of corn ethanol. The key factors in determining the impacts of cellulosic ethanol are energy and chemical usage intensity of biomass farming, ethanol yield per dry ton of biomass, and electricity credits in cellulosic ethanol plants. The results of our fuel-cycle analysis for fuel ethanol are listed below. Note that, in the first half of this summary, the reductions cited are per-vehicle-mile traveled using the specified ethanol/gasoline blend instead of conventional (not reformulated) gasoline. The second half of the summary presents estimated changes per gallon of ethanol used in ethanol blends. GHG emissions are global warming potential (GWP)-weighted, carbon dioxide (CO2)-equivalent emissions of CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).

Fuel-Cycle Fossil Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Fuel Ethanol Produced from U.S. Midwest Corn

This study addresses two issues: (1) data and information essential to an informed choice about the corn-to-ethanol cycle are in need of updating, thanks to scientific and technological advances in both corn farming and ethanol production; and (2) generalized national estimates of energy intensities and greenhouse gas (GHG) production are of less relevance than estimates based specifically on activities and practices in the principal domestic corn production and milling region -- the upper Midwest.

EVALUATING EFFECTIVENESS OF REAL-TIME ADVANCED TRAVELER INFORMATION SYSTEMS USING A SMALL TEST VEHICLE FLEET

ADVANCE was an in-vehicle advanced traveler information system (ATIS) providing route guidance in real time that operated in the northwestern portion and northwest suburbs of Chicago, Illinois. It used probe vehicles to generate dynamically travel time information about expressways, arterials, and local streets. Tests to evaluate the subsystems of ADVANCE, executed with limited availability of test vehicles and stringent scheduling, are described; they provided useful insights into both the performance of the ADVANCE system as a whole and the desirable and effective characteristics of ATIS deployments generally. Tests found that the user features of an in-route guidance system must be able to accommodate a broad range of technological sophistication and network knowledge among the population likely to become regular users of such a system. For users who know the local network configuration, only a system giving reliable real-time data about nonrecurrent congestion is likely to find a market base beyond specialized applications. In general, the quality and usefulness of systemwide real-time route guidance provided by other means are enhanced significantly by even a small deployment of probes: probe data greatly improve static (archival average) link travel time estimates by time of day, although the guidance algorithms that use these data should also include arterial traffic signal timings. Moreover, probe- and detector-based incident detection on arterial networks shows considerable promise for improved performance and reliability.

ESTIMATING AIR POLLUTANT REDUCTION CREDITS FOR ALTERNATIVE-FUEL VEHICLES WITH AIRCRED

Primarily to assist the U.S. Department of Energy’s Clean Cities coalitions in estimating the net benefits of reducing air pollutant emissions gained by acquiring original equipment manufacture (OEM) alternativefuel vehicles (AFVs), Argonne National Laboratory has developed a graphical user interface-based benefit calculation model called AirCred. The application of this modeling tool has been extended to the estimation of state implementation plan credits for AFVs that may be claimed in nonattainment and maintenance regions for ozone and carbon monoxide. The tool also has been approved for and applied to the quantification of projected program benefits in applications for grant support to purchase OEM AFVs under the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Program. First, the model’s founding principles and relatively simple mechanics are presented, accompanied by graphic displays of data input screens and comparative results for various vehicular categories. Current and future plans are cited for enhancement of the tool, including its respecification for consistency with MOBILE6 and for air planning in the yet-to-be-designated nonattainment areas for ambient particulate matter of 2.5 μm and smaller. Then some issues and controversies about how and where AirCred should be applied are chronicled. Finally, some example applications are presented to illustrate the residual benefits of AFVs over time relative to their conventionally fueled counterparts of the same (recent) model year. Results indicate that AFVs of certain categories will remain viable and attractive candidates for reducing air emissions in ozone and carbon monoxide air quality control regions well into the future.

Alternatives to Diesel Fuel in California: Fuel-Cycle Energy and Emission Effects of Possible Replacements due to the Toxic Air Contaminant Diesel Particulate Decision

Limitations on the use of petroleum-based diesel fuel in California could occur pursuant to declaration by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) that the particulate matter component of diesel exhaust is a toxic air contaminant subject to the state’s Proposition 65. It is the declared intention of CARB not to ban diesel fuel, per se, at this time. Assuming no total ban, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) explored two feasible “midcourse” strategies that result in some degree of (conventional) diesel displacement. In the first case, substantial displacement of compression-ignition (CI) by spark-ignition engines occurs and diesel fuel remains admissible for ignition assistance as a pilot fuel in natural gas–powered heavy-duty vehicles. Daily gasoline demand in California increases by 32.2 million L (8.5 million gal) overall, about 21 percent above the 2010 baseline demand projected by California’s energy and environmental agencies. Daily natural gas demand increases by 13.6 million diesel L (3.6 million gal) equivalents, about 7 percent above projected (total) consumption level. In the second case, CI engines utilize substitutes having similar ignition and performance properties for petroleum-based diesel. For each case, ANL estimated localized air emission plus generalized greenhouse gas and energy changes. Fuel replacement by dimethyl ether yields the greatest overall reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions. All scenarios bring about fine particulate matter (PM10) reductions relative to the 2010 baseline, with greatest reductions from the CI-displacement case and the least from fuel replacement by Fischer-Tropsch synthetic diesel. Institutional and cost implications of vehicle and engine replacement were not formally evaluated.