László Pintér

Prospects for mainstreaming ecosystem goods and services in international policies

Abstract Although most management decisions affecting ecosystem goods and services (EGS) are made at a local level, these local decisions are conditioned by national and international policies. International policy domains provide clear opportunities to mainstream (integrate) EGS in ways that can support poverty reduction. However, positive poverty reduction and EGS outcomes cannot be taken for granted. Mainstreaming EGS needs careful consideration because many of the opportunities identified can reduce poverty, but may have the opposite effect if poorly managed or implemented. A major challenge is to ensure consistent policies across scales and policy domains based on analysis of the local situation. In order to support poverty reduction it matters how the mainstreaming is done and who benefits locally. Based on an analysis of EGS delivery and poverty reduction in drylands, tropical forests and coastal areas in the tropics, this paper analyses the prospects of mainstreaming EGS in a number of relevant international policy domains including: i) development assistance; ii) trade; iii) climate change and; iv) international financial institutions. For these policy domains it is analyzed how mainstreaming EGS can contribute to reaching poverty reduction and development goals, what relevant policy tracks for mainstreaming EGS exist, and what priority issues should mainstreaming focus on. The paper next provides an overview of possible tools and mechanisms for mainstreaming and ends with conclusions on what the role of the CBD can be in mainstreaming.

Scaling indicator and planning plane: An indicator and a visual tool for exploring the relationship between urban form, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

Abstract Ecosystems and other naturally resilient systems exhibit allometric scaling in the distribution of sizes of their elements. In this paper we define an allometry inspired scaling indicator for cities that is a first step toward quantifying the stability borne of a complex systems’ hierarchical structural composition. The scaling indicator is calculated using large census datasets and is analogous to fractal dimension in spatial analysis. Lack of numerical rigor and the resulting variation in scaling indicators – inherent in the use of box counting mechanism for fractal dimension calculation for cities – has been one of the hindrances in the adoption of fractal dimension as an urban indicator of note. The intra-urban indicator of scaling in population density distribution developed here is calculated for 58 US cities using a methodology that produces replicable results, employing large census-block wise population datasets from the 2010 US Census and the 2007 US Economic Census. We show that rising disparity – as measured by the proposed indicator of population density distribution in census blocks in Metropolitan Statistical Areas adversely affects energy consumption efficiency and carbon emissions in cities and leads to a higher urban carbon footprint. We then define a planning plane as a visual and analytic tool for incorporation of scaling indicator analysis into policy and decision-making.

Integrated modelling of urban spatial development under uncertain climate futures : A case study in Hungary

To provide fundamental decision support information for climate risk assessment in Hungary, an urban spatial development model of land cover change and population age structure dynamics was developed and applied to local integrated scenarios of climate change and stakeholder-derived socio-economic change. The four integrated scenarios for Hungary produced contrasting projections for urban patterns to 2100, but peri-urbanisation around Budapest was estimated to occur under all scenarios, together with a decline in working age population in the centres of the capital and major towns. This suggests that future urban planning needs to take into consideration the potential for underutilised urban infrastructure in the centre of the capital and pressures for social service provisioning in its outskirt. The integrated scenarios and model developed can be used in future studies to test the effectiveness of inter-sectoral policy responses in adapting urban planning to multiple climate and socio-economic challenges.

Erratum to: Normative scenario approach: a vehicle to connect adaptation planning and development needs in developing countries

Climate change adaptation is one of the many development challenges impacting livelihoods in developing countries. Scenario approaches are useful in adaptation planning by putting together projected climate change and socioeconomic trends with broader development needs when identifying associated priorities—and using them to develop appropriate strategies, plans and initiatives. To date, explorative scenario approaches have been largely adopted in adaptation planning. In this paper, we determine the benefits of using normative scenario approaches. They include a process known as “backcasting,” which is particularly useful for areas where adaptation planning and actions are strongly intertwined with development planning, and considerable efforts are needed to improve the well-being of the people living in those areas. We show the relevance of backcasting by presenting three case study applications in the following developing countries: Ghana, Honduras and Tajikistan. The results of these case studies indicate that backcasting has specific relevance for adaptation planning, including capacity building and awareness raising to contextualize information on climate impacts with stakeholders’ development needs. Our results also indicate that the developed scenarios provided benefits in promoting horizontal and vertical integration, thus bringing together diverse sectorial and sub-national priorities—adaptation options can thereby be aligned with these needs. Finally, use of the scenarios advances countries’ participation in national and multi-country adaptation projects by targeting actions that provide multiple benefits.

Population and age structure in Hungary: a residential preference and age dependency approach to disaggregate census data

ABSTRACT We present a simple model to disaggregate age structured population census data to a 1-km grid for Hungary. A dasymetric approach was used to predict the spatial distribution of population in different age groups by distinguishing residential preferences (in relation to accessible social, economic and green amenities) for working age groups (15–29, 30–49 and 50–64) and population dependencies for children and the elderly (aged 0–14 and 65+). By using open-access land cover data and fine-level population census data as inputs, the model predicts the likely spatial distribution of population and age structure for Hungary in 2011. The resulting map and gridded data provide information to support spatial planning of residential development and urban infrastructure. The model is less data-demanding than most existing approaches, but provides greater power for describing population patterns. It can also be used to create scenarios of future demographic change.