Laura K. Siebeneck

Household Evacuation Decision Making in Response to Hurricane Ike

AbstractThis study focused on household evacuation decisions and departure timing for Hurricane Ike. The data were consistent with an abbreviated form of the Protective-Action Decision Model in which female gender, official warning messages, hurricane experience, coastal location, and environmental and social cues were hypothesized to produce perceived storm characteristics, which in turn, would produce expected personal impacts. Finally, the latter, together with perceived evacuation impediments, would determine evacuation decisions and departure timing. However, there were fewer significant predictors of perceived storm characteristics and more significant predictors of expected personal impacts and evacuation decisions than hypothesized. Also contrary to hypothesis, female gender, perceived storm characteristics, official warnings, and hurricane experience predicted departure times. However, as expected, evacuation rates declined with distance from the coast; unlike Hurricane Rita 3 years earlier, ther...

Spatial and Temporal Variation in Evacuee Risk Perception Throughout the Evacuation and Return-Entry Process

Developing effective evacuation and return-entry plans requires understanding the spatial and temporal dimensions of risk perception experienced by evacuees throughout a disaster event. Using data gathered from the 2008 Cedar Rapids, Iowa Flood, this article explores how risk perception and location influence evacuee behavior during the evacuation and return-entry process. Three themes are discussed: (1) the spatial and temporal characteristics of risk perception throughout the evacuation and return-entry process, (2) the relationship between risk perception and household compliance with return-entry orders, and (3) the role social influences have on the timing of the return by households. The results indicate that geographic location and spatial variation of risk influenced household risk perception and compliance with return-entry plans. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics influenced the timing and characteristics of the return groups. The findings of this study advance knowledge of evacuee behavior throughout a disaster and can inform strategies used by emergency managers throughout the evacuation and return-entry process.

Spatial and Temporal Analyses of Terrorist Incidents in Iraq, 2004-2006

Terrorist incidents are not random in space or time. Understanding the current spatial and temporal patterns of terrorist incidents, as well as predicting future trends, is vital for effective counterterrorist efforts. This article focuses on terrorist incidents in Iraq, which are defined here as attacks, both successful and unsuccessful, in order to detect patterns in the establishment of terrorist activity spaces. Using Geographic Information Science (GISc), this project carries out a series of spatial and temporal cluster identification analyses on recent terrorist incidents in Iraq.

A Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Terrorist Incidents in Iraq 2004–2009

As terrorism on all scales continues, it is necessary to improve understanding of terrorist and insurgent activities. This article takes a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to advance the understanding of spatial, social, political, and cultural triggers that influence terrorism incidents. Spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal patterns of terrorist attacks are examined to improve knowledge about terrorist systems of training, planning, and actions. The results of this study aim to provide a foundation for understanding attack patterns and tactics in emerging havens as well as inform the creation and implementation of various counterterrorism measures.

Evacuees' information sources and reentry decision making in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike

In the aftermath of a hurricane, local emergency managers need to communicate reentry plans to households that might be scattered over multiple counties or states. To better understand evacuees’ households’ reliance on different information sources at the time they decided to return home, this study collected data on reentry after Hurricane Ike. The results from a survey of 340 evacuating households indicated that there was low compliance with official reentry plans and that none of the information sources produced greater compliance with official reentry plans. Nonetheless, there were significant changes in the utilization of different sources of emergency information over the course of an evacuation but local news media remained the most common sources throughout the event. There also were significant differences in the relative importance of different sources of reentry information, with people relying most on information from peers. In summary, local authorities need to identify more effective ways to communicate with evacuees that have relocated to distant communities and to motivate them to comply with official reentry plans.

Sources of organisational resiliency during the Thailand floods of 2011: a test of the bonding and bridging hypotheses.

Based on the Institutional Collective Action framework, this research tests the impact of two competing hypotheses--bonding and bridging--on enhancing organisational resiliency. The bonding hypothesis posits that organisational resiliency can be achieved if an organisation works closely with others, whereas the bridging hypothesis argues that such a structure places considerable stress on an organisation and advocates for an organisation to position itself as a central actor to gain access to novel resources from a diverse set of entities to achieve resiliency. The paper analyses data gathered from semi-structured interviews with 44 public, private, and non-profit organisations serving communities affected by the Great Floods of 2011 in the Thai capital, Bangkok (urban), and in Pathum Thani (suburban) and Ayutthaya (rural) provinces. The findings suggest that: organisational resiliency was associated with the bridging effect; organisations in the rural province were more resilient than those in the suburban and urban centres; and private and non-governmental organisations generally were more resilient than public sector organisations. The findings highlight the importance of fostering multi-sector partnerships to enhance organisational resiliency for disaster response.

Using provincial baseline indicators to model geographic variations of disaster resilience in Thailand

Understanding a community’s capacity for responding to and recovering from natural disasters has been an emphasis of recent disaster research. In particular, scholars have called for the development of methodologies for measuring a location’s resilience to disasters. While several studies propose methodologies and frameworks for measuring disaster resilience in the USA, few studies examine and measure resilience in international settings. This study applies Cutter et al.’s (Glob Environ Change 18:598–606, 2008) Disaster Resilience of Place (DROP) model in order to examine disaster resilience at the provincial level in Thailand. Guided by the DROP model, 25 variables were selected from the 2000 and 2010 Thai Census and 2005–2006 Statistical Yearbook that served as indicators of resilience. Using a principal component analysis, a set of baseline metrics reflecting dimensions of community capacities that influence disaster resilience was created. This analysis resulted in four dimensions describing resilience: household assets, economic assets, community/response assets, and institutional assets. Using the derived index, a correlation analysis was then conducted to examine differences in rural and urban disaster resilience. While the results of the model suggest that disaster resilience is generally higher in the more urbanized areas, we also note that communities located in rural areas in Thailand may not necessarily be less resilient to the impacts of disasters and call for studies conducted at both the macrolevel (provincial level) and at microlevel (village or neighborhood level) to get a nuanced understanding of community resiliency.

Environmental factors that influence wildfire protective-action recommendations

Each year wildfire incident commanders (ICs) manage thousands of events throughout the USA that often threaten life and property. In this task they make important decisions to protect both firefighters and citizens, usually under time pressure and uncertainty. Many environmental factors affect the choice and timing of the most effective protective-action in this context (e.g., evacuate, shelter-in-refuge, shelter-in-place). The goal of this research is to identify the critical factors that influence wildfire protective-action recommendations (PARs) and their relative importance. Forty-seven ICs from the western USA were surveyed to produce mean factor-importance scores, where multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) and pathfinder analysis were applied to visually assess factor similarity. The results indicate that more experienced ICs place greater importance on dynamic, fire-related factors, while also differing in their cognitive representation of these factors from less experienced ICs. These results have important practical implications in developing effective training interventions, supporting the process of sense-making, and designing decision support systems.

Information Search and Decision Making in Computer-Based Wildfire Simulations

Decision making in complex environments has been investigated in many domains, including medicine, aviation, business, and police operations. However, how incident commanders (ICs) make protective-action recommendations (PARs) to populations exposed to wildfire risks is underinvestigated. In this study we examined the effect of expertise on IC non-time-limited information search and decision making and how ICs update information during the evolution of complex, computer-simulated wildfire scenarios. The results indicate that higher expertise reduces the overall amount of information being searched for, without affecting the quality of PAR decisions. In addition, a statistical trend suggests that information updating during the progression of the scenario involves disproportionate less-static information versus dynamic information. Finally, ICs demonstrated a strong preference for evacuation recommendations over alternative recommendations, even when an evacuation may result in less optimal outcomes.

Assessing Preparedness Elevated: Seismic Risk Perception and Household Adjustment in Salt Lake City, Utah

Determining household earthquake risk perceptions and adjustments is important for improving our understanding of community preparedness and establishing baselines fro improvements. Greater than 90% of the Utah population lives within 25 km of the Wasatch Fault System (WFS), and a 2012 FEMA report ranked seismic risk in Utah as the 6th highest in the U.S.A. We administered a geocoded, mail-out survey to households located in high-risk ground shaking and liquefaction hazard zones. We examined relationships between adoptions of 13 household adjustments and how respondents perceive risk and responsibility in the context of demographic characteristics, house location, and construction type (e.g. year built, unreinforced masonry (URM) or not, number of floors). Results characterize a population that perceives seismic risk as high, but varies significantly in its preparedness and sense of vulnerability. Further research is needed about how residents obtain information, given that fewer than 10% of respondents were aware of Utahs earthquake preparedness guide.