Carla S. Prater

Risk Area Accuracy and Hurricane Evacuation Expectations of Coastal Residents

This study examined the accuracy with which Texas coastal residents were able to locate their residences on hurricane risk area maps provided to them. Overall, only 36% of the respondents correctly identified their risk areas and another 28% were off by one risk area. Risk area accuracy shows minimal correlations with respondents’ demographic characteristics but is negatively correlated with the respondent’s previous hurricane exposure and evacuation experience. Ultimately, risk area accuracy appears to have little significance because it is uncorrelated with evacuation expectations. Instead, the latter were related to respondents’ previous hazard experience and expected evacuation context.

Vulnerability of community businesses to environmental disasters

Business plays important roles in community functioning. However, disaster research has been disproportionately focused on units of analysis such as families, households and government agencies. This paper synthesises the major findings within the business development research field and the disaster research field. It constructs a framework for evaluating business vulnerability to natural disasters. Our theoretical integration of the research conducted to date addresses five major issues. First, it defines the ways in which businesses are subject to the impacts of natural disasters. Second, it identifies the factors that determine the magnitude of business impacts after a disaster. Third, it identifies how and when businesses return to their pre-disaster level in the disaster stricken community. Fourth, it describes measures that can be taken by individual firms and community planners to reduce the impacts of environmental disasters. Fifth, it identifies needs for public policy and future research to reduce business vulnerability to environmental disasters.

Household Evacuation Decision Making in Response to Hurricane Ike

AbstractThis study focused on household evacuation decisions and departure timing for Hurricane Ike. The data were consistent with an abbreviated form of the Protective-Action Decision Model in which female gender, official warning messages, hurricane experience, coastal location, and environmental and social cues were hypothesized to produce perceived storm characteristics, which in turn, would produce expected personal impacts. Finally, the latter, together with perceived evacuation impediments, would determine evacuation decisions and departure timing. However, there were fewer significant predictors of perceived storm characteristics and more significant predictors of expected personal impacts and evacuation decisions than hypothesized. Also contrary to hypothesis, female gender, perceived storm characteristics, official warnings, and hurricane experience predicted departure times. However, as expected, evacuation rates declined with distance from the coast; unlike Hurricane Rita 3 years earlier, ther...

Who Leaves and Who Stays? A Review and Statistical Meta-Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Studies

This statistical meta-analysis (SMA) examined 38 studies involving actual responses to hurricane warnings and 11 studies involving expected responses to hypothetical hurricane scenarios conducted since 1991. The results indicate official warnings, mobile home residence, risk area residence, observations of environmental (storm conditions) and social (other people’s behavior) cues, and expectations of severe personal impacts, all have consistently significant effects on household evacuation. Other variables—especially demographic variables—have weaker effects on evacuation, perhaps via indirect effects. Finally, the SMA also indicates that the effect sizes from actual hurricane evacuation studies are similar to those from studies of hypothetical hurricane scenarios for 10 of 17 variables that were examined. These results can be used to guide the design of hurricane evacuation transportation analyses and emergency managers’ warning programs. They also suggest that laboratory and Internet experiments could be used to examine people’s cognitive processing of different types of hurricane warning messages.

Effects of track and threat information on judgments of hurricane strike probability

Although evacuation is one of the best strategies for protecting citizens from hurricane threat, the ways that local elected officials use hurricane data in deciding whether to issue hurricane evacuation orders is not well understood. To begin to address this problem, we examined the effects of hurricane track and intensity information in a laboratory setting where participants judged the probability that hypothetical hurricanes with a constant bearing (i.e., straight line forecast track) would make landfall in each of eight 45 degree sectors around the Gulf of Mexico. The results from 162 participants in a student sample showed that the judged strike probability distributions over the eight sectors within each scenario were, unsurprisingly, unimodal and centered on the sector toward which the forecast track pointed. More significantly, although strike probability judgments for the sector in the direction of the forecast track were generally higher than the corresponding judgments for the other sectors, the latter were not zero. Most significantly, there were no appreciable differences in the patterns of strike probability judgments for hurricane tracks represented by a forecast track only, an uncertainty cone only, or forecast track with an uncertainty cone-a result consistent with a recent survey of coastal residents threatened by Hurricane Charley. The study results suggest that people are able to correctly process basic information about hurricane tracks but they do make some errors. More research is needed to understand the sources of these errors and to identify better methods of displaying uncertainty about hurricane parameters.

Examining Local Coastal Zone Management Capacity in U.S. Pacific Coastal Counties

The coastal zone has critical natural, commercial, recreational, ecological, industrial, and esthetic values for current and future generations. Thus, there are increasing pressures from population growth and coastal land development. Local coastal land use planning plays an important role in implementing the U.S. Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) by establishing goals and performance policies for addressing critical coastal issues. This study extends the CZMA Performance Measurement System from the national level to the local land use level by measuring coastal zone land use plan quality and political context in fifty-three Pacific coastal counties. Plan quality is measured using an evaluation protocol defined by five components and sixty-eight indicators. The results indicate a reasonable correspondence between national goals and local coastal zone land use planning goals, but a slight gap might exist between the national/state versus local levels in the overall effectiveness of coastal zone management (CZM) efforts. The results show many U.S. Pacific coastal counties lack strong coastal zone land use plans because the average plan quality score was only 22.7 out of 50 points. Although these plans set relatively clear goals and objectives, they are somewhat weaker in their factual basis, identify a limited range of the available planning tools and techniques, and establish few coordination and implementation mechanisms. The regression analysis results indicate that CZM plan quality was not significantly related to any of the jurisdictional characteristics.

Assessing the impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami on households: a modified domestic assets index approach

This paper offers a potential measurement solution for assessing disaster impacts and subsequent recovery at the household level by using a modified domestic assets index (MDAI) approach. Assessment of the utility of the domestic assets index first proposed by Bates, Killian and Peacock (1984) has been confined to earthquake areas in the Americas and southern Europe. This paper modifies and extends the approach to the Indian sub-continent and to coastal surge hazards utilizing data collected from 1,000 households impacted by the Indian Ocean tsunami (2004) in the Nagapattinam district of south-eastern India. The analyses suggest that the MDAI scale is a reliable and valid measure of household living conditions and is useful in assessing disaster impacts and tracking recovery efforts over time. It can facilitate longitudinal studies, encourage cross-cultural, cross-national comparisons of disaster impacts and inform national and international donors of the itemized monetary losses from disasters at the household level.

“Certain Death” from Storm Surge: A Comparative Study of Household Responses to Warnings about Hurricanes Rita and Ike

AbstractThis study examines the effect of an unusual “certain death” warning message on Galveston, Harris, and Jefferson County, Texas, residents’ expectations of storm surge damage and evacuation decisions during Hurricane Ike. The effect of this message was tested by comparing questionnaire data collected after Hurricane Ike to similar data collected 3 yr earlier after Hurricane Rita. If the certain death message had an effect, one would expect nonsignificant differences in perceptions of the two storms’ surge threats because the category 2 storm (Ike) had a surge that was more characteristic of a category 5 storm (Rita). However, the ratings of the storm surge threat for Ike were significantly lower than those for Rita in Galveston County—the point of landfall. Moreover, evacuation rates for Ike were consistently lower than those for Rita in all three counties, and there were no statistically significant differences between storms in the correlations of expected storm surge damage with evacuation decis...

Evacuees' information sources and reentry decision making in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike

In the aftermath of a hurricane, local emergency managers need to communicate reentry plans to households that might be scattered over multiple counties or states. To better understand evacuees’ households’ reliance on different information sources at the time they decided to return home, this study collected data on reentry after Hurricane Ike. The results from a survey of 340 evacuating households indicated that there was low compliance with official reentry plans and that none of the information sources produced greater compliance with official reentry plans. Nonetheless, there were significant changes in the utilization of different sources of emergency information over the course of an evacuation but local news media remained the most common sources throughout the event. There also were significant differences in the relative importance of different sources of reentry information, with people relying most on information from peers. In summary, local authorities need to identify more effective ways to communicate with evacuees that have relocated to distant communities and to motivate them to comply with official reentry plans.

Multistage Model of Hurricane Evacuation Decision: Empirical Study of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

AbstractThis study extends previous research by testing the protective action decision model (PADM) on hurricane evacuation decisions during Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. An examination of this medi...