Laura M. Norman

Forecasting urban growth across the United States-Mexico border

Abstract The sister-city area of Nogales, Arizona, and Nogales, Sonora, Mexico, is known collectively as Ambos (both) Nogales. This area was historically one city and was administratively divided by the Gadsden Purchase in 1853. These arid-lands have limited and sensitive natural resources. Environmental planning can support sustainable development to accommodate the predicted influx of population. The objective of this research is to quantify the amount of predicted urban growth for the Ambos Nogales watershed to support future planning for sustainable development. Two modeling regimes are explored. Our goal is to identify possible growth patterns associated with the twin-city area as a whole and with the two cities modeled as separate entities. We analyzed the cross-border watershed using regression analysis from satellite images from 1975, 1983, 1996, and 2002 and created urban area classifications. We used these classifications as input to the urban growth model, SLEUTH, to simulate likely patterns of development and define projected conversion probabilities. Model results indicate that the two cities are undergoing very different patterns of change and identify locations of expected growth based on historical development. Growth in Nogales, Arizona is stagnant while the urban area in Nogales, Sonora is exploding. This paper demonstrates an application that portrays how future binational urban growth could develop and affect the environment. This research also provides locations of potential growth for use in city planning.

Multi-gauge Calibration for modeling the Semi-Arid Santa Cruz Watershed in Arizona-Mexico Border Area Using SWAT

In most watershed-modeling studies, flow is calibrated at one monitoring site, usually at the watershed outlet. Like many arid and semi-arid watersheds, the main reach of the Santa Cruz watershed, located on the Arizona-Mexico border, is discontinuous for most of the year except during large flood events, and therefore the flow characteristics at the outlet do not represent the entire watershed. Calibration is required at multiple locations along the Santa Cruz River to improve model reliability. The objective of this study was to best portray surface water flow in this semi-arid watershed and evaluate the effect of multi-gauge calibration on flow predictions. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated at seven monitoring stations, which improved model performance and increased the reliability of flow predictions, in the Santa Cruz watershed. The most sensitive parameters to affect flow were found to be curve number (CN2), soil evaporation and compensation coefficient (ESCO), threshold water depth in shallow aquifer for return flow to occur (GWQMN), base flow alpha factor (ALPHA_BF), and effective hydraulic conductivity of the soil layer (CH_K2). In comparison, when the model was established with a single calibration at the watershed outlet, flow predictions at other monitoring gauges were inaccurate. This study emphasizes the importance of multi-gauge calibration to develop a reliable watershed model in arid and semi-arid environments. The developed model, with further calibration of water quality parameters will be an integral part of the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem portfolio Model (SCWEPM), an online decision support tool, to assess the impacts of climate change and urban growth in the Santa Cruz watershed.

Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service (NPS) biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for (1) a ‘Current Trends’ (CT) scenario and (2) a ‘Megalopolis’ (MEGA) scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on CT, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species) and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas in the MEGA scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24%, respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: CT would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while MEGA would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

Tracing ground water input to base flow using sulfate (S, O) isotopes

Sulfate (S and O) isotopes used in conjunction with sulfate concentration provide a tracer for ground water contributions to base flow. They are particularly useful in areas where rock sources of contrasting S isotope character are juxtaposed, where water chemistry or H and O isotopes fail to distinguish water sources, and in arid areas where rain water contributions to base flow are minimal. Sonoita Creek basin in southern Arizona, where evaporite and igneous sources of sulfur are commonly juxtaposed, serves as an example. Base flow in Sonoita Creek is a mixture of three ground water sources: A, basin ground water with sulfate resembling that from Permian evaporite; B, ground water from the Patagonia Mountains; and C, ground water associated with Temporal Gulch. B and C contain sulfate like that of acid rock drainage in the region but differ in sulfate content. Source A contributes 50% to 70%, with the remainder equally divided between B and C during the base flow seasons. The proportion of B generally increases downstream. The proportion of A is greatest under drought conditions.

Urban Effects on Regional Climate: A Case Study in the Phoenix and Tucson “Sun Corridor”

AbstractLand-use and land-cover change (LULCC) due to urban expansion alter the surface albedo, heat capacity, and thermal conductivity of the surface. Consequently, the energy balance in urban regions is different from that of natural surfaces. To evaluate the changes in regional climate that could arise because of projected urbanization in the Phoenix–Tucson corridor, Arizona, this study applied the coupled WRF Model–Noah–Urban Canopy Model (UCM; which includes a detailed urban radiation scheme) to this region. Land-cover changes were represented using land-cover data for 2005 and projections to 2050, and historical North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to specify the lateral boundary conditions. Results suggest that temperature changes will be well defined, reflecting the urban heat island (UHI) effect within areas experiencing LULCC. Changes in precipitation are less robust but seem to indicate reductions in precipitation over the mountainous regions northeast of Phoenix and decreas...

Analysis of vegetation recovery surrounding a restored wetland using the normalized difference infrared index (NDII) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)

ABSTRACT Watershed restoration efforts seek to rejuvenate vegetation, biological diversity, and land productivity at Cienega San Bernardino, an important wetland in southeastern Arizona and northern Sonora, Mexico. Rock detention and earthen berm structures were built on the Cienega San Bernardino over the course of four decades, beginning in 1984 and continuing to the present. Previous research findings show that restoration supports and even increases vegetation health despite ongoing drought conditions in this arid watershed. However, the extent of restoration impacts is still unknown despite qualitative observations of improvement in surrounding vegetation amount and vigor. We analyzed spatial and temporal trends in vegetation greenness and soil moisture by applying the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference infrared index (NDII) to one dry summer season Landsat path/row from 1984 to 2016. The study area was divided into zones and spectral data for each zone was analyzed and compared with precipitation record using statistical measures including linear regression, Mann–Kendall test, and linear correlation. NDVI and NDII performed differently due to the presence of continued grazing and the effects of grazing on canopy cover; NDVI was better able to track changes in vegetation in areas without grazing while NDII was better at tracking changes in areas with continued grazing. Restoration impacts display higher greenness and vegetation water content levels, greater increases in greenness and water content through time, and a decoupling of vegetation greenness and water content from spring precipitation when compared to control sites in nearby tributary and upland areas. Our results confirm the potential of erosion control structures to affect areas up to 5 km downstream of restoration sites over time and to affect 1 km upstream of the sites.

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

ABSTRACT Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

Monitoring Colonias along the United States-Mexico border

U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2004–3070 August 2004 The Colonias Monitoring Program provides a publicly accessible, binational, GIS database to enable civic leaders and citizens to inventory, analyze, and monitor growth, housing, and infrastructure in border communities. High-technology tools are provided to support planning efforts and development along the border, using a sustainable and comprehensive approach. The collective information can be used by nongovernmental organizations in preparing grant and loan applications for community-improvement projects.