Miguel L. Villarreal

Biodiversity losses and conservation trade-offs: assessing future urban growth scenarios for a North American trade corridor

The Sonoran Desert and Apache Highlands ecoregions of North America are areas of exceptionally high plant and vertebrate biodiversity. However, much of the vertebrate biodiversity is supported by only a few vegetation types with limited distributions, some of which are increasingly threatened by changing land uses. We assessed the impacts of two future urban growth scenarios on biodiversity in a binational watershed in Arizona, USA and Sonora, Mexico. We quantified and mapped terrestrial vertebrate species richness using Wildlife Habitat Relation models and validated the results with data from National Park Service (NPS) biological inventories. Future urban growth, based on historical trends, was projected to the year 2050 for (1) a ‘Current Trends’ (CT) scenario and (2) a ‘Megalopolis’ (MEGA) scenario that represented a transnational growth corridor with open-space conservation attributes. Based on CT, 45% of existing riparian woodland (267 of 451species) and 34% of semi-desert grasslands (215 of 451 species) will be lost, whereas in the MEGA scenario, these types would decline by 44% and 24%, respectively. Outcomes of the two models suggest a trade-off at the taxonomic class level: CT would reduce and fragment mammal and herpetofauna habitat, while MEGA would result in loss of avian-rich riparian habitat.

Mapping and monitoring riparian vegetation distribution, structure and composition with regression tree models and post-classification change metrics

Riparian systems have become increasingly susceptible to both natural and human disturbances as cumulative pressures from changing land use and climate alter the hydrological regimes. This article introduces a landscape dynamics monitoring protocol that incorporates riparian structural classes into the land-cover classification scheme and examines riparian change within the context of surrounding land-cover change. We tested whether Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery could be used to document a riparian tree die-off through the classification of multi-date Landsat images using classification and regression tree (CART) models trained with physiognomic vegetation data. We developed a post-classification change map and used patch metrics to examine the magnitude and trajectories of riparian class change relative to mapped disturbance parameters. Results show that catchments where riparian change occurred can be identified from land-cover change maps; however, the main change resulting from the die-off disturbance was compositional rather than structural, making accurate post-classification change detection difficult.

Disturbance automated reference toolset (DART): Assessing patterns in ecological recovery from energy development on the Colorado Plateau

A new disturbance automated reference toolset (DART) was developed to monitor human land surface impacts using soil-type and ecological context. DART identifies reference areas with similar soils, topography, and geology; and compares the disturbance condition to the reference area condition using a quantile-based approach based on a satellite vegetation index. DART was able to represent 26-55% of variation of relative differences in bare ground and 26-41% of variation in total foliar cover when comparing sites with nearby ecological reference areas using the Soil Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI). Assessment of ecological recovery at oil and gas pads on the Colorado Plateau with DART revealed that more than half of well-pads were below the 25th percentile of reference areas. Machine learning trend analysis of poorly recovering well-pads (quantile<0.23) had out-of-bag error rates between 37 and 40% indicating moderate association with environmental and management variables hypothesized to influence recovery. Well-pads in grasslands (median quantile [MQ]=13%), blackbrush (Coleogyne ramosissima) shrublands (MQ=18%), arid canyon complexes (MQ=18%), warmer areas with more summer-dominated precipitation, and state administered areas (MQ=12%) had low recovery rates. Results showcase the usefulness of DART for assessing discrete surface land disturbances, and highlight the need for more targeted rehabilitation efforts at oil and gas well-pads in the arid southwest US.

Landsat time series analysis of fractional plant cover changes on abandoned energy development sites

Abstract Oil and natural gas development in the western United States has increased substantially in recent decades as technological advances like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have made extraction more commercially viable. Oil and gas pads are often developed for production, and then capped, reclaimed, and left to recover when no longer productive. Understanding the rates, controls, and degree of recovery of these reclaimed well sites to a state similar to pre-development conditions is critical for energy development and land management decision processes. Here we use a multi-decadal time series of satellite imagery (Landsat 5, 1984–2011) to assess vegetation regrowth on 365 abandoned well pads located across the Colorado Plateau in Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. We developed high-frequency time series of the Soil-Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI) for each well pad using the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform. BFAST time-series models were used to fit temporal trends, identifying when vegetation was cleared from the site and the magnitudes and rates of vegetation change after abandonment. The time series metrics are used to calculate the relative fractional vegetation cover (RFVC) of each pad, a measure of post-abandonment vegetation cover relative to pre-drilling condition. Mean and median RFVC were 36% (s.d. 33%) and 26%, respectively, five years after abandonment, with one third of well pads having RFVC greater than 50%. Statistical analyses suggest that much of the high vegetation cover is associated with weedy invasive annual species such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and Russian thistle (Salsola spp.). Climate conditions and the year of abandonment also play a role, with increased cover in later years associated with a wetter period. Non-linear change at many pads suggests longer recovery times than would be estimated by linear extrapolation. New techniques implemented here address a complex response of cover change to soils, management, and climate over time, and can be extended to the operational monitoring of energy development across large areas.

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

An inventory and monitoring plan for a Sonoran Desert ecosystem; Barry M. Goldwater Range-West

........................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Purpose and Scope ....................................................................................................................................................... 2 1.0 Introduction and Background ................................................................................................................................... 3 1.