Laura Saikku

Import–export balance of nitrogen and phosphorus in food, fodder and fertilizers in the Baltic Sea drainage area

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are essential elements for life, but in excess they contribute to aquatic eutrophication. The Baltic Sea is a brackish semi-enclosed sea that is heavily influenced by anthropogenic loading of nutrients, resulting in a major environmental problem, eutrophication. In this study, the nutrient balance of the food production and consumption system in seven countries in the Baltic Sea drainage area was quantified for the period 2002-2005. The food production and consumption system accumulates nutrients in the Baltic Sea drainage area, due to extensive imports to the system. The average annual net surplus of nutrients was 1,800,000 tons N and 320,000 tons P in 2002-2005, or annually 28 kg N and 5 kg P per capita. The average total annual import was 2,100,000 tons N and 340,000 tons P during 2002-2005. The largest imports to the system were fertilizers, totaling 1,700,000 tons N and 290,000 tons P. Traded nutrients in food and fodder amounted to a net annual surplus of 180,000 tons N and 25,000 tons P. The nutrient load to the Baltic Sea due to the food consumption and production system was 21% N and 6% P of the respective annual net inputs to the region. This study shows that large amounts of nutrients to Baltic Sea drainage area are inputs from outside the region, eventually contributing to eutrophication. To reduce the nutrient imports, fertilizers should be used more efficiently, nutrients should be recycled more efficiently inside the region, and food system should be guided toward low-nutrient intensive diets.

Climate Change Mitigation Challenge for Wood Utilization—The Case of Finland

The urgent need to mitigate climate change invokes both opportunities and challenges for forest biomass utilization. Fossil fuels can be substituted by using wood products in place of alternative materials and energy, but wood harvesting reduces forest carbon sink and processing of wood products requires material and energy inputs. We assessed the extended life cycle carbon emissions considering substitution impacts for various wood utilization scenarios over 100 years from 2010 onward for Finland. The scenarios were based on various but constant wood utilization structures reflecting current and anticipated mix of wood utilization activities. We applied stochastic simulation to deal with the uncertainty in a number of input variables required. According to our analysis, the wood utilization decrease net carbon emissions with a probability lower than 40% for each of the studied scenarios. Furthermore, large emission reductions were exceptionally unlikely. The uncertainty of the results were influenced clearly the most by the reduction in the forest carbon sink. There is a significant trade-off between avoiding emissions through fossil fuel substitution and reduction in forest carbon sink due to wood harvesting. This creates a major challenge for forest management practices and wood utilization activities in responding to ambitious climate change mitigation targets.

The Role of Salmonid Aquaculture, Consumption, and International Tradeeutrophication in the Baltic Sea

Fish consumption is increasing globally. Overfishing puts pressure on fisheries, but aquaculture provides an alternative to satisfy the growing need for seafood. However, nutrient emissions from aquaculture contribute to eutrophication, and raising fish from the top of the food chain is inefficient. Here we use the approach of industrial ecology and report ImPACT decomposition analysis of the drivers of nutrient emissions to the Baltic Sea from rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland during 1980−2007. During this period, the nitrogen load studied increased markedly and was 522 tonnes in 2007. The phosphorus load quadrupled and then returned to its original level of about 65 tonnes. The Finnish population increased slightly, while the average affluence level increased significantly. Total salmonid consumption increased substantially during the period. The increasing percentage of imported salmonids and improvements in domestic aquaculture technology ended the period of strong growth of emissions in the 1980s. Decreasing the nutrient load through reductions in salmonid consumption in the future is unlikely, due to health benefits and consumer preferences. Replacing domestic production with import of salmonids raises questions regarding outsourcing of the environmental impact, and regarding rural development in Finland. Major improvements in production technology are not in sight. New perspectives on rainbow trout aquaculture may be needed, including using feed from the Baltic Sea, thus closing the nutrient cycle or changing consumption and production to herbivorous fish species.

Eutrophication in the Baltic Sea The role of salmonid aquaculture, consumption, and international trade

Fish consumption is increasing globally. Overfishing puts pressure on fisheries, but aquaculture provides an alternative to satisfy the growing need for seafood. However, nutrient emissions from aquaculture contribute to eutrophication, and raising fish from the top of the food chain is inefficient. Here we use the approach of industrial ecology and report ImPACT decomposition analysis of the drivers of nutrient emissions to the Baltic Sea from rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland during 1980−2007. During this period, the nitrogen load studied increased markedly and was 522 tonnes in 2007. The phosphorus load quadrupled and then returned to its original level of about 65 tonnes. The Finnish population increased slightly, while the average affluence level increased significantly. Total salmonid consumption increased substantially during the period. The increasing percentage of imported salmonids and improvements in domestic aquaculture technology ended the period of strong growth of emissions in the 1980s. Decreasing the nutrient load through reductions in salmonid consumption in the future is unlikely, due to health benefits and consumer preferences. Replacing domestic production with import of salmonids raises questions regarding outsourcing of the environmental impact, and regarding rural development in Finland. Major improvements in production technology are not in sight. New perspectives on rainbow trout aquaculture may be needed, including using feed from the Baltic Sea, thus closing the nutrient cycle or changing consumption and production to herbivorous fish species.

Biofuels: Forests and Carbon

In the Policy Forum “Beneficial biofuels—the food, energy, and environment trilemma” (17 July, p. [270][1]), D. Tilman et al. neglected to mention the role of forests and carbon capture and storage. Trees offer promise as an energy crop in areas where they grow well on degraded lands. A new

Mitigating the impact of uncertainties in base year and GDP forecasts on international effort sharing calculations

Significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required when aiming to reach the ultimate target of the UNFCCC. The European Union has proposed to limit the increase in global mean temperature in 2 degree compared to pre-industrial period. According to IPCC 2007 report, global emissions should be reduced by at least 50% in 2050 compared to 2000 to maintain the reasonable probability of achieving 2 degree target. Capabilities and responsibilities of countries to respond the emission reduction challenge vary significantly, in particular between industrialized and the least developed countries. Consequently, the differentiation of the emission reduction commitments is necessary, also emphasized by the UNFCCC.