Laurel A. Habel

Diabetes and cancer: a consensus report.

Epidemiologic evidence suggests that cancer incidence is associated with diabetes as well as certain diabetes risk factors and diabetes treatments. This consensus statement of experts assembled jointly by the American Diabetes Association and the American Cancer Society reviews the state of science concerning 1) the association between diabetes and cancer incidence or prognosis, 2) risk factors common to both diabetes and cancer, 3) possible biologic links between diabetes and cancer risk, and 4) whether diabetes treatments influence risk of cancer or cancer prognosis. In addition, key unanswered questions for future research are posed.

A population-based study of tumor gene expression and risk of breast cancer death among lymph node-negative patients

IntroductionThe Oncotype DX assay was recently reported to predict risk for distant recurrence among a clinical trial population of tamoxifen-treated patients with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. To confirm and extend these findings, we evaluated the performance of this 21-gene assay among node-negative patients from a community hospital setting.MethodsA case-control study was conducted among 4,964 Kaiser Permanente patients diagnosed with node-negative invasive breast cancer from 1985 to 1994 and not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Cases (n = 220) were patients who died from breast cancer. Controls (n = 570) were breast cancer patients who were individually matched to cases with respect to age, race, adjuvant tamoxifen, medical facility and diagnosis year, and were alive at the date of death of their matched case. Using an RT-PCR assay, archived tumor tissues were analyzed for expression levels of 16 cancer-related and five reference genes, and a summary risk score (the Recurrence Score) was calculated for each patient. Conditional logistic regression methods were used to estimate the association between risk of breast cancer death and Recurrence Score.ResultsAfter adjusting for tumor size and grade, the Recurrence Score was associated with risk of breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients (P = 0.003 and P = 0.03, respectively). At 10 years, the risks for breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated patients were 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7–3.9%), 10.7% (95% CI 6.3–14.9%), and 15.5% (95% CI 7.6–22.8%) for those in the low, intermediate and high risk Recurrence Score groups, respectively. They were 6.2% (95% CI 4.5–7.9%), 17.8% (95% CI 11.8–23.3%), and 19.9% (95% CI 14.2–25.2%) for ER-positive patients not treated with tamoxifen. In both the tamoxifen-treated and -untreated groups, approximately 50% of patients had low risk Recurrence Score values.ConclusionIn this large, population-based study of lymph node-negative patients not treated with chemotherapy, the Recurrence Score was strongly associated with risk of breast cancer death among ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients.

ADHD Drugs and Serious Cardiovascular Events in Children and Young Adults

BACKGROUND Adverse-event reports from North America have raised concern that the use of drugs for attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) increases the risk of serious cardiovascular events. METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study with automated data from four health plans (Tennessee Medicaid, Washington State Medicaid, Kaiser Permanente California, and OptumInsight Epidemiology), with 1,200,438 children and young adults between the ages of 2 and 24 years and 2,579,104 person-years of follow-up, including 373,667 person-years of current use of ADHD drugs. We identified serious cardiovascular events (sudden cardiac death, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke) from health-plan data and vital records, with end points validated by medical-record review. We estimated the relative risk of end points among current users, as compared with nonusers, with hazard ratios from Cox regression models. RESULTS Cohort members had 81 serious cardiovascular events (3.1 per 100,000 person-years). Current users of ADHD drugs were not at increased risk for serious cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31 to 1.85). Risk was not increased for any of the individual end points, or for current users as compared with former users (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.29 to 1.72). Alternative analyses addressing several study assumptions also showed no significant association between the use of an ADHD drug and the risk of a study end point. CONCLUSIONS This large study showed no evidence that current use of an ADHD drug was associated with an increased risk of serious cardiovascular events, although the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval indicated that a doubling of the risk could not be ruled out. However, the absolute magnitude of such an increased risk would be low. (Funded by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the Food and Drug Administration.).

Risk of Heart Failure in Breast Cancer Patients After Anthracycline and Trastuzumab Treatment: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background Clinical trials demonstrated that women treated for breast cancer with anthracycline or trastuzumab are at increased risk for heart failure and/or cardiomyopathy (HF/CM), but the generalizability of these findings is unknown. We estimated real-world adjuvant anthracycline and trastuzumab use and their associations with incident HF/CM. Methods We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of 12 500 women diagnosed with incident, invasive breast cancer from January 1, 1999 through December 31, 2007, at eight integrated Cancer Research Network health systems. Using administrative procedure and pharmacy codes, we identified anthracycline, trastuzumab, and other chemotherapy use. We identified incident HF/CM following chemotherapy initiation and assessed risk of HF/CM with time-varying chemotherapy exposures vs no chemotherapy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) with adjustment for age at diagnosis, stage, Cancer Research Network site, year of diagnosis, radiation therapy, and comorbidities. Results Among 12 500 women (mean age = 60 years, range = 22–99 years), 29.6% received anthracycline alone, 0.9% received trastuzumab alone, 3.5% received anthracycline plus trastuzumab, 19.5% received other chemotherapy, and 46.5% received no chemotherapy. Anthracycline and trastuzumab recipients were younger, with fewer comorbidities than recipients of other chemotherapy or none. Compared with no chemotherapy, the risk of HF/CM was higher in patients treated with anthracycline alone (adjusted HR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.11 to 1.76), although the increased risk was similar to other chemotherapy (adjusted HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.25 to 1.77); the risk was highly increased in patients treated with trastuzumab alone (adjusted HR = 4.12, 95% CI = 2.30 to 7.42) or anthracycline plus trastuzumab (adjusted HR = 7.19, 95% CI = 5.00 to 10.35). Conclusions Anthracycline and trastuzumab were primarily used in younger, healthier women and associated with increased HF/CM risk compared with no chemotherapy. This population-based observational study complements findings from clinical trials on cancer treatment safety.

A practical molecular assay to predict survival in resected non-squamous, non-small-cell lung cancer: development and international validation studies.

BACKGROUND The frequent recurrence of early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is generally attributable to metastatic disease undetected at complete resection. Management of such patients depends on prognostic staging to identify the individuals most likely to have occult disease. We aimed to develop and validate a practical, reliable assay that improves risk stratification compared with conventional staging. METHODS A 14-gene expression assay that uses quantitative PCR, runs on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue samples, and differentiates patients with heterogeneous statistical prognoses was developed in a cohort of 361 patients with non-squamous NSCLC resected at the University of California, San Francisco. The assay was then independently validated by the Kaiser Permanente Division of Research in a masked cohort of 433 patients with stage I non-squamous NSCLC resected at Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals, and on a cohort of 1006 patients with stage I-III non-squamous NSCLC resected in several leading Chinese cancer centres that are part of the China Clinical Trials Consortium (CCTC). FINDINGS Kaplan-Meier analysis of the Kaiser validation cohort showed 5 year overall survival of 71·4% (95% CI 60·5-80·0) in low-risk, 58·3% (48·9-66·6) in intermediate-risk, and 49·2% (42·2-55·8) in high-risk patients (p(trend)=0·0003). Similar analysis of the CCTC cohort indicated 5 year overall survivals of 74·1% (66·0-80·6) in low-risk, 57·4% (48·3-65·5) in intermediate-risk, and 44·6% (40·2-48·9) in high-risk patients (p(trend)<0·0001). Multivariate analysis in both cohorts indicated that no standard clinical risk factors could account for, or provide, the prognostic information derived from tumour gene expression. The assay improved prognostic accuracy beyond National Comprehensive Cancer Network criteria for stage I high-risk tumours (p<0·0001), and differentiated low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk patients within all disease stages. INTERPRETATION Our practical, quantitative-PCR-based assay reliably identified patients with early-stage non-squamous NSCLC at high risk for mortality after surgical resection. FUNDING UCSF Thoracic Oncology Laboratory and Pinpoint Genomics.

ADHD Medications and Risk of Serious Cardiovascular Events In Young and Middle-Aged Adults

CONTEXT More than 1.5 million US adults use stimulants and other medications labeled for treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). These agents can increase heart rate and blood pressure, raising concerns about their cardiovascular safety. OBJECTIVE To examine whether current use of medications prescribed primarily to treat ADHD is associated with increased risk of serious cardiovascular events in young and middle-aged adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective, population-based cohort study using electronic health care records from 4 study sites (OptumInsight Epidemiology, Tennessee Medicaid, Kaiser Permanente California, and the HMO Research Network), starting in 1986 at 1 site and ending in 2005 at all sites, with additional covariate assessment using 2007 survey data. Participants were adults aged 25 through 64 years with dispensed prescriptions for methylphenidate, amphetamine, or atomoxetine at baseline. Each medication user (n = 150,359) was matched to 2 nonusers on study site, birth year, sex, and calendar year (443,198 total users and nonusers). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Serious cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction (MI), sudden cardiac death (SCD), or stroke, with comparison between current or new users and remote users to account for potential healthy-user bias. RESULTS During 806,182 person-years of follow-up (median, 1.3 years per person), 1357 cases of MI, 296 cases of SCD, and 575 cases of stroke occurred. There were 107,322 person-years of current use (median, 0.33 years), with a crude incidence per 1000 person-years of 1.34 (95% CI, 1.14-1.57) for MI, 0.30 (95% CI, 0.20-0.42) for SCD, and 0.56 (95% CI, 0.43-0.72) for stroke. The multivariable-adjusted rate ratio (RR) of serious cardiovascular events for current use vs nonuse of ADHD medications was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.96). Among new users of ADHD medications, the adjusted RR was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.63-0.94). The adjusted RR for current use vs remote use was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.86-1.24); for new use vs remote use, the adjusted RR was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.82-1.28); the upper limit of 1.28 corresponds to an additional 0.19 events per 1000 person-years at ages 25-44 years and 0.77 events per 1000 person-years at ages 45-64 years. CONCLUSIONS Among young and middle-aged adults, current or new use of ADHD medications, compared with nonuse or remote use, was not associated with an increased risk of serious cardiovascular events. Apparent protective associations likely represent healthy-user bias.

Pioglitazone Use and Risk of Bladder Cancer and Other Common Cancers in Persons With Diabetes

IMPORTANCE Studies suggest pioglitazone use may increase risk of cancers. OBJECTIVE To examine whether pioglitazone use for diabetes is associated with risk of bladder and 10 additional cancers. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Cohort and nested case-control analyses among persons with diabetes. A bladder cancer cohort followed 193,099 persons aged 40 years or older in 1997-2002 until December 2012; 464 case patients and 464 matched controls were surveyed about additional confounders. A cohort analysis of 10 additional cancers included 236,507 persons aged 40 years or older in 1997-2005 and followed until June 2012. Cohorts were from Kaiser Permanente Northern California. EXPOSURES Ever use, duration, cumulative dose, and time since initiation of pioglitazone as time dependent. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident cancer, including bladder, prostate, female breast, lung/bronchus, endometrial, colon, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, pancreas, kidney/renal pelvis, rectum, and melanoma. RESULTS Among 193,099 persons in the bladder cancer cohort, 34,181 (18%) received pioglitazone (median duration, 2.8 years; range, 0.2-13.2 years) and 1261 had incident bladder cancer. Crude incidences of bladder cancer in pioglitazone users and nonusers were 89.8 and 75.9 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Ever use of pioglitazone was not associated with bladder cancer risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.06; 95% CI, 0.89-1.26). Results were similar in case-control analyses (pioglitazone use: 19.6% among case patients and 17.5% among controls; adjusted odds ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.78-1.80). In adjusted analyses, there was no association with 8 of the 10 additional cancers; ever use of pioglitazone was associated with increased risk of prostate cancer (HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.02-1.26) and pancreatic cancer (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.16-1.71). Crude incidences of prostate and pancreatic cancer in pioglitazone users vs nonusers were 453.3 vs 449.3 and 81.1 vs 48.4 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. No clear patterns of risk for any cancer were observed for time since initiation, duration, or dose. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Pioglitazone use was not associated with a statistically significant increased risk of bladder cancer, although an increased risk, as previously observed, could not be excluded. The increased prostate and pancreatic cancer risks associated with ever use of pioglitazone merit further investigation to assess whether they are causal or are due to chance, residual confounding, or reverse causality.

Cohort Study of Pioglitazone and Cancer Incidence in Patients With Diabetes

OBJECTIVE To explore whether treatment with pioglitazone was associated with risk of incident cancer at the 10 most common sites (prostate, female breast, lung/bronchus, endometrial, colon, non-Hodgkin lymphoma [NHL], pancreas, kidney/renal pelvis, rectal, and melanoma). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A cohort study of 252,467 patients aged ≥40 years from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Diabetes Registry was conducted. All prescriptions for diabetes medications were identified by pharmacy records. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between risk of incident cancer and ever use, duration, dose, and time since initiation of pioglitazone (modeled as time-dependent variables). RESULTS In models adjusted for age, sex, year of cohort entry, race/ethnicity, income, smoking, glycemic control, diabetes duration, creatinine levels, congestive heart failure, and use of other diabetes medications, the hazard ratio (HR) for each cancer associated with ever use of pioglitazone ranged from 0.7 to 1.3, with all 95% CIs including 1.0. There was a suggestion of an increased risk of melanoma (HR 1.3 [95% CI 0.9–2.0]) and NHL (1.3 [1.0–1.8]) and a decreased risk of kidney/renal pelvis cancers (0.7 [0.4–1.1]) associated with ever use of pioglitazone. These associations were unaltered with increasing dose, duration, or time since first use. CONCLUSIONS We found no clear evidence of an association between use of pioglitazone and risk of the incident cancers examined. Because the maximum duration of follow-up was fewer than 6 years after the initiation of pioglitazone, longer-term studies are needed.

Statin use and risk of prostate cancer in the California Men's Health Study cohort.

Statins have known anticarcinogenic effects, however, evidence for long-term statin use as effective chemoprevention for prostate cancer is inconsistent. We examined the association between statin use and risk of prostate cancer among 69,047 eligible participants in the California Mens Health Study, a prospective cohort of Northern and Southern California Kaiser Permanente (KP) members, ages 45 to 69 years, initiated in 2002. Prostate cancer cases were identified by linkage to the KP California Cancer Registries. Statin exposure, estimated from automated KP outpatient pharmacy records (available since 1991 in Southern California and since 1994 in Northern California), was treated as time-varying and defined as the cumulative days dispensed of any statin from the first dispensing until a prostate cancer diagnosis, radical prostatectomy, termination of membership, or end of study (December 31, 2004). Cox proportional hazards models with age as the time scale were used to estimate rate ratios, while controlling for confounding variables. During follow-up, 888 prostate cancer cases, including 131 advanced cases, were identified. There was no association between ever statin use or <5 years use and prostate cancer. Conversely, ≥5 years use was associated with a 28% lower risk for prostate cancer compared with nonuse (adjusted rate ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.99). This association did not differ markedly for advanced disease. However, the association did seem to be restricted to those who regularly take nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Our findings suggest that long-term statin use might be associated with a reduced risk of prostate cancer but perhaps only among regular nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug users. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2007;16(11):2218–25)

Race, ethnicity, sex and temporal differences in Barrett’s oesophagus diagnosis: a large community-based study, 1994–2006

Objective: To evaluate the demographics and incidence of Barrett’s oesophagus diagnosis using community-based data. Design: Observational study. Setting: Kaiser Permanente, Northern California healthcare membership, 1994–2006. Patients: Members with an electronic diagnosis of Barrett’s oesophagus. Main outcome measures: Incidence and prevalence of a new Barrett’s oesophagus diagnosis by race, sex, age and calendar year. Results: 4205 persons met the study definition for a diagnosis of Barrett’s oesophagus. The annual incidence in 2006 was highest among non-Hispanic whites (39/100 000 race-specific member-years, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 35 to 43), with lower rates among Hispanics (22/100 000, 95% CI 16 to 29), Asians (16/100 000, 95% CI 11 to 22), and blacks (6/100 000, 95% CI 2 to 12). The annual incidence was higher among men than women (31 vs 17/100 000, respectively, year 2006; p<0.01). The incidence increased with age from 2 per 100 000 for persons aged 21–30 years, to a peak of 31 per 100 000 member-years for persons aged 61–70 years (year 2006). There was no increase in the incidence of new diagnoses until the last two observation years, which coincided with changes in data collection methods and may be due to bias. The overall prevalence among active members increased almost linearly to 131/100 000 member-years by 2006. Conclusions: The demographic distributions of Barrett’s oesophagus differ markedly by race, age and sex and were comparable to those for oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Thus, demographic disparities in oesophageal adenocarcinoma risk may arise partly from the risk of having Barrett’s oesophagus, rather than from differing risks of progression from Barrett’s oesophagus to cancer. There has been an almost linear increase in the prevalence of diagnosed disease.