Laurence Jones

Ex ante impact assessment of policies affecting land use, Part B: application of the analytical framework

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives.

Land use functions — a multifunctionality approach to assess the impact of land use changes on land use sustainability

The dramatic changes in land use observed in Europe in the last fifty years have generally resulted in improvement of human welfare and economic development. On the other hand, they have caused serious environmental problems. There is therefore a need for approaches that help to understand in an integrative way the economic, environmental and societal impacts that land use changes have on sustainability. Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA), which assesses the impact of policies on sustainability, addresses this challenge. SIA partly builds on the concept of the multifunctionality of land which helps to deal with the complexity of interactions between different land uses, their temporal and spatial changes, and finally how policies might steer those changes towards sustainability. Following this need for true integration of economic, environmental and societal issues across policy areas at a meaningful spatial scale, an interdisciplinary team in the SENSOR project has developed an innovative conceptual framework to assess the impact of policies on land sustainability at various levels of spatial aggregation i.e. the Land Use Functions (LUFs) framework. LUFs are the goods and services provided by the different land uses that summarise the most relevant economic, environmental and societal issues of a region. The LUFs framework integrates the changes observed in a large set of impact indicators into nine Land Use Functions (LUFs), which are balanced among the three pillars of sustainability. The LUFs framework makes it possible for policy makers, scientists and stakeholders to identify at a glance those functions of the land which are hindered or enhanced under various scenarios of land use change, and makes it possible to explore the trade-offs between them. The LUFs framework allows therefore the building of assessment across disciplines, sectors and the three sustainability dimensions. It has proved to be very helpful for the systematisation of relevant sustainability indicators within SENSOR and is intended to be further used in other projects as a tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment. The rationale leading to the LUFs concept, its definition and the conceptual framework is described in this chapter. We conclude that the concept of LUFs allows users to make explicit the analytical links between multifunctional land use and sustainable development, and therefore to look at multifunctionality as a way towards sustainability.

The Role of Nitrogen Deposition in Widespread Plant Community Change Across Semi-natural Habitats

Experimental studies have shown that deposition of reactive nitrogen is an important driver of plant community change, however, most of these experiments are of short duration with unrealistic treatments, and conducted in regions with elevated ambient deposition. Studies of spatial gradients of pollution can complement experimental data and indicate whether the potential impacts demonstrated by experiments are actually occurring in the ‘real world’. However, targeted surveys exist for only a very few habitats and are not readily comparable. In a coordinated campaign, we determined the species richness and plant community composition of five widespread, semi-natural habitats across Great Britain in sites stratified along gradients of climate and pollution, and related these ecological parameters to major drivers of biodiversity, including climate, pollution deposition, and local edaphic factors. In every habitat, we found reduced species richness and changed species composition associated with higher nitrogen deposition, with remarkable consistency in relative species loss across ecosystem types. Whereas the diversity of mosses, lichens, forbs, and graminoids declines with N deposition in different habitats, the cover of graminoids generally increases. Considered alongside previous experimental studies and survey work, our results provide a compelling argument that nitrogen deposition is a widespread and pervasive threat to terrestrial ecosystems.

Grazing management in saltmarsh ecosystems drives invertebrate diversity, abundance and functional group structure

Abstract.  1. Saltmarsh conservation management often involves livestock grazing to maximise plant diversity and provide suitable breeding habitat for over‐wintering coastal birds. The effect of grazing on invertebrates is rarely quantified, but results from limited studies of terrestrial and coastal grasslands demonstrate greater abundance and species richness in un‐grazed grassland.

Connecting Earth observation to high-throughput biodiversity data

Understandably, given the fast pace of biodiversity loss, there is much interest in using Earth observation technology to track biodiversity, ecosystem functions and ecosystem services. However, because most biodiversity is invisible to Earth observation, indicators based on Earth observation could be misleading and reduce the effectiveness of nature conservation and even unintentionally decrease conservation effort. We describe an approach that combines automated recording devices, high-throughput DNA sequencing and modern ecological modelling to extract much more of the information available in Earth observation data. This approach is achievable now, offering efficient and near-real-time monitoring of management impacts on biodiversity and its functions and services.

Empirical validation of the InVEST water yield ecosystem service model at a national scale

A variety of tools have emerged with the goal of mapping the current delivery of ecosystem services and quantifying the impact of environmental changes. An important and often overlooked question is how accurate the outputs of these models are in relation to empirical observations. In this paper we validate a hydrological ecosystem service model (InVEST Water Yield Model) using widely available data. We modelled annual water yield in 22 UK catchments with widely varying land cover, population and geology, and compared model outputs with gauged river flow data from the UK National River Flow Archive. Values for input parameters were selected from existing literature to reflect conditions in the UK and were subjected to sensitivity analyses. We also compared model performance between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data sourced from global- and UK-scale datasets. We then tested the transferability of the results within the UK by additional validation in a further 20 catchments. Whilst the model performed only moderately with global-scale data (linear regression of modelled total water yield against empirical data; slope=0.763, intercept=54.45, R(2)=0.963) with wide variation in performance between catchments, the model performed much better when using UK-scale input data, with closer fit to the observed data (slope=1.07, intercept=3.07, R(2)=0.990). With UK data the majority of catchments showed <10% difference between measured and modelled water yield but there was a minor but consistent overestimate per hectare (86m(3)/ha/year). Additional validation on a further 20 UK catchments was similarly robust, indicating that these results are transferable within the UK. These results suggest that relatively simple models can give accurate measures of ecosystem services. However, the choice of input data is critical and there is a need for further validation in other parts of the world.

Evidence for differential effects of reduced and oxidised nitrogen deposition on vegetation independent of nitrogen load

Nitrogen (N) deposition impacts natural and semi-natural ecosystems globally. The responses of vegetation to N deposition may, however, differ strongly between habitats and may be mediated by the form of N. Although much attention has been focused on the impact of total N deposition, the effects of reduced and oxidised N, independent of the total N deposition, have received less attention. In this paper, we present new analyses of national monitoring data in the UK to provide an extensive evaluation of whether there are differences in the effects of reduced and oxidised N deposition across eight habitat types (acid, calcareous and mesotrophic grasslands, upland and lowland heaths, bogs and mires, base-rich mires, woodlands). We analysed data from 6860 plots in the British Countryside Survey 2007 for effects of total N deposition and N form on species richness, Ellenberg N values and grass:forb ratio. Our results provide clear evidence that N deposition affects species richness in all habitats except base-rich mires, after factoring out correlated explanatory variables (climate and sulphur deposition). In addition, the form of N in deposition appears important for the biodiversity of grasslands and woodlands but not mires and heaths. Ellenberg N increased more in relation to NHx deposition than NOy deposition in all but one habitat type. Relationships between species richness and N form were habitat-specific: acid and mesotrophic grasslands appear more sensitive to NHx deposition while calcareous grasslands and woodlands appeared more responsive to NOy deposition. These relationships are likely driven by the preferences of the component plant species for oxidised or reduced forms of N, rather than by soil acidification.

Eco-hydrological requirements of dune slack vegetation and the implications of climate change

Dune slacks are a seasonal coastal wetland habitat, whose plant assemblages and soil properties are strongly linked to a fluctuating water table. Climate change is predicted to cause major shifts in sand dune hydrological regimes, yet we know remarkably little about the tolerance of these communities to change, and their precise hydrological requirements are poorly quantified. Dune slack vegetation and soils were sampled within five vegetation types across four west coast UK sites. Relationships between vegetation assemblages, and parameters of soil development (moisture, loss on ignition, pH, KCl extractable ions) and groundwater hydrological regime (annual maximum and minimum water levels and range, duration of flooding) were established to define the environmental tolerances of different communities. In multivariate analysis of the vegetation, the dominant gradient was hydrological: dry to wet, followed by a secondary soil development gradient: young calcareous organic-poor soils to acidic/neutral soils with greater organic matter contents. Most measured hydrological and soil variables explained a significant proportion of observed variation in species composition when tested individually, with the exception of soil nitrate and soil calcium concentrations. Maximum water level was the key hydrological variable, and soil moisture and soil pH were the key soil variables. All hydrological and soil parameters together explained 22.5% of the total species variation. There were significant differences in hydrological and soil parameters between community types, with only 40 cm difference in mean annual minimum water levels (averaged over 4 years) separating the wettest and the driest dune slack communities. Therefore, predicted declines in water level exceeding 100 cm by 2080 are likely to have a major impact on the vegetation of these priority conservation habitats.

Comparing strengths and weaknesses of three ecosystem services modelling tools in a diverse UK river catchment

Ecosystem services modelling tools can help land managers and policy makers evaluate the impacts of alternative management options or changes in land use on the delivery of ecosystem services. As the variety and complexity of these tools increases, there is a need for comparative studies across a range of settings, allowing users to make an informed choice. Using examples of provisioning and regulating services (water supply, carbon storage and nutrient retention), we compare three spatially explicit tools - LUCI (Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator), ARIES (Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services) and InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs). Models were parameterised for the UK and applied to a temperate catchment with widely varying land use in North Wales. Although each tool provides quantitative mapped output, can be applied in different contexts, and can work at local or national scale, they differ in the approaches taken and underlying assumptions made. In this study, we focus on the wide range of outputs produced for each service and discuss the differences between each modelling tool. Model outputs were validated using empirical data for river flow, carbon and nutrient levels within the catchment. The sensitivity of the models to land-use change was tested using four scenarios of varying severity, evaluating the conversion of grassland habitat to woodland (0-30% of the landscape). We show that, while the modelling tools provide broadly comparable quantitative outputs, each has its own unique features and strengths. Therefore the choice of tool depends on the study question.

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale.

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1×1km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness.