Laurence Lasselle

Stability and Cycles in a Cobweb Model with Heterogeneous Expectations

We investigate the dynamics of a cobweb model with heterogeneous beliefs, generalizing the example of Brock and Hommes (1997). We examine situations where the agents form expectations by using either rational expectations, or a type of adaptive expectations with limited memory defined from the last two prices. We specify conditions that generate cycles. These conditions depend on a set of factors that includes the intensity of switching between beliefs and the adaption parameter. We show that both Flip bifurcation and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation can occur as primary bifurcation when the steady state is unstable.

School grades, school context and university degree performance: evidence from an elite Scottish institution

This paper investigates degree classification outcomes for students with SQA Higher qualifications at an elite Scottish university. Students are characterised according to a new indicator based on their secondary school’s academic performance relative to the national (Scottish) average. The results show that our school context indicator provides valuable information for interpreting school qualifications with respect to a student’s potential to benefit from their university studies. If school context is ignored, raw school grades alone may be an incomplete measure of academic ability and the probability of success at university.