Laurent Casabianca

Using Bayesian statistics to estimate the likelihood a new trial will demonstrate the efficacy of a new treatment

BackgroundThe common frequentist approach is limited in providing investigators with appropriate measures for conducting a new trial. To answer such important questions and one has to look at Bayesian statistics.MethodsAs a worked example, we conducted a Bayesian cumulative meta-analysis to summarize the benefit of patient-specific instrumentation on the alignment of total knee replacement from previously published evidence. Data were sourced from Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases. All randomised controlled comparisons of the effect of patient-specific instrumentation on the coronal alignment of total knee replacement were included. The main outcome was the risk difference measured by the proportion of failures in the control group minus the proportion of failures in the experimental group. Through Bayesian statistics, we estimated cumulatively over publication time of the trial results: the posterior probabilities that the risk difference was more than 5 and 10%; the posterior probabilities that given the results of all previous published trials an additional fictive trial would achieve a risk difference of at least 5%; and the predictive probabilities that observed failure rate differ from 5% across arms.ResultsThirteen trials were identified including 1092 patients, 554 in the experimental group and 538 in the control group. The cumulative mean risk difference was 0.5% (95% CrI: −5.7%; +4.5%). The posterior probabilities that the risk difference be superior to 5 and 10% was less than 5% after trial #4 and trial #2 respectively. The predictive probability that the difference in failure rates was at least 5% dropped from 45% after the first trial down to 11% after the 13th. Last, only unrealistic trial design parameters could change the overall evidence accumulated to date.ConclusionsBayesian probabilities are readily understandable when discussing the relevance of performing a new trial. It provides investigators the current probability that an experimental treatment be superior to a reference treatment. In case a trial is designed, it also provides the predictive probability that this new trial will reach the targeted risk difference in failure rates.Trial registrationCRD42015024176.

Iliac Crest Avulsion Fracture in a Young Sprinter

Avulsion fracture of the iliac crest is an uncommon pathology. It usually occurs in teenagers during sport activities, more common in boys. We report a case of 16-year-old male competitive sprinter, who had an avulsion of a part of the iliac crest and the anterior-superior iliac spine during a competition. The traumatism occurred during the period of acceleration phase out of the blocks which corresponds to the maximum traction phase on the tendons. Then a total loss of function of the lower limb appears forcing him to stop the run. X-ray and CT scan confirmed the rare diagnosis of avulsion of the quasitotality of the iliac crest apophysis, corresponding to Salter 2 fracture. We performed an open reduction and internal fixation with two screws, allowing a return to sport after 3 months and his personal best record in the 100 meters at the 6th postoperative month.

Spontaneous Knee Ankylosis through Heterotopic Ossification after Total Knee Arthroplasty

This paper reports on a case of total ankylosis of the knee after a cruciate-sacrificing cemented total knee arthroplasty (TKA). An 82-year-old female patient previously underwent primary TKA for osteoarthritis twenty years ago in our institution. She had recovered uneventfully and returned to her regular activities. There was no history of postsurgical trauma; however, she progressively lost knee range of motion. Radiographs revealed severe bridging heterotopic ossification.