Lawrence Hutchings

Moment tensor inversions of M ~ 3 earthquakes in the Geysers geothermal fields, California

Microearthquakes have come into high public awareness due to being induced by the development and exploitation of enhanced and natural geothermal fields, hydrofracturing, and CO2 sequestration sites. Characterizing and understanding the faulting process of induced earthquakes, which is generally achieved through moment tensor inversion, could both help in risk prediction and in reservoir development monitoring. However, this is a challenging task because of their lower signal-to-noise ratio at frequencies typically used in earthquake source analyses. Therefore, higher-resolution velocity models and modeling of seismic waves at higher frequencies are required. In this study, we examine both the potentials to obtain moment tensor solutions for small earthquakes and the uncertainty of those solutions. We utilize a short-period seismic network located in the Geysers geothermal field in northern California and limit our study to that which would be achieved by industry in a typical reservoir environment. We obtain full moment tensor solutions of M ~ 3 earthquakes using waveform modeling and first-motion inversions. We find that these two data sets give complimentary but yet different solutions. Some earthquakes correspond possibly to complex processes in which both shear and tensile failures occur simultaneously or sequentially. This illuminates the presence of fluids at depth and their role for the generation of these small-magnitude earthquakes. Finally, since first motions are routinely obtained for all magnitude earthquakes, our approach could be extended to small earthquakes where noise level and complex Greens functions prohibit using waveforms in moment tensor inversions.

Demonstration of pb-PSHA with Ras-Elhekma earthquake, Egypt

Abstract The main goal of this work is to: (1) argue for the importance of a physically-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (pb-PSHA) methodology and show examples to support the argument from recent events, (2) demonstrate the methodology with the ground motion simulations of May 28, 1998, Mw = 5.5 Ras-Elhekma earthquake, north Egypt. The boundaries for the possible rupture parameters that may have been identified prior to the 1998 Ras-Elhekma earthquake were estimated. A range of simulated ground-motions for the Ras-Elhekma earthquake was “predicted” for frequency 0.5–25 Hz at three sites, where the large earthquake was recorded, with average epicentral distances of 220 km. The best rupture model of the 1998 Ras-Elhekma earthquake was identified by calculated the goodness of fit between observed and synthesized records at sites FYM, HAG, and KOT. We used the best rupture scenario of the 1998 earthquake to synthesize the ground motions at interested sites where the main shock was not recorded. Based on the good fit of simulated and observed seismograms, we concluded that this methodology can provide realistic ground motion of an earthquake and highly recommended for engineering purposes in advance or foregoing large earthquakes at non record sites. We propose that there is a need for this methodology for good-representing the true hazard with reducing uncertainties.