Lea Fortunato

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3–19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8–144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13410.001

Occupation and cancer in Britain.

Background:Prioritising control measures for occupationally related cancers should be evidence based. We estimated the current burden of cancer in Britain attributable to past occupational exposures for International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) group 1 (established) and 2A (probable) carcinogens.Methods:We calculated attributable fractions and numbers for cancer mortality and incidence using risk estimates from the literature and national data sources to estimate proportions exposed.Results:5.3% (8019) cancer deaths were attributable to occupation in 2005 (men, 8.2% (6362); women, 2.3% (1657)). Attributable incidence estimates are 13 679 (4.0%) cancer registrations (men, 10 063 (5.7%); women, 3616 (2.2%)). Occupational attributable fractions are over 2% for mesothelioma, sinonasal, lung, nasopharynx, breast, non-melanoma skin cancer, bladder, oesophagus, soft tissue sarcoma, larynx and stomach cancers. Asbestos, shift work, mineral oils, solar radiation, silica, diesel engine exhaust, coal tars and pitches, occupation as a painter or welder, dioxins, environmental tobacco smoke, radon, tetrachloroethylene, arsenic and strong inorganic mists each contribute 100 or more registrations. Industries and occupations with high cancer registrations include construction, metal working, personal and household services, mining, land transport, printing/publishing, retail/hotels/restaurants, public administration/defence, farming and several manufacturing sectors. 56% of cancer registrations in men are attributable to work in the construction industry (mainly mesotheliomas, lung, stomach, bladder and non-melanoma skin cancers) and 54% of cancer registrations in women are attributable to shift work (breast cancer).Conclusion:This project is the first to quantify in detail the burden of cancer and mortality due to occupation specifically for Britain. It highlights the impact of occupational exposures, together with the occupational circumstances and industrial areas where exposures to carcinogenic agents occurred in the past, on population cancer morbidity and mortality; this can be compared with the impact of other causes of cancer. Risk reduction strategies should focus on those workplaces where such exposures are still occurring.

Aircraft noise and cardiovascular disease near Heathrow airport in London: small area study

Objective To investigate the association of aircraft noise with risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease in the general population. Design Small area study. Setting 12 London boroughs and nine districts west of London exposed to aircraft noise related to Heathrow airport in London. Population About 3.6 million residents living near Heathrow airport. Risks for hospital admissions were assessed in 12 110 census output areas (average population about 300 inhabitants) and risks for mortality in 2378 super output areas (about 1500 inhabitants). Main outcome measures Risk of hospital admissions for, and mortality from, stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease, 2001-05. Results Hospital admissions showed statistically significant linear trends (P<0.001 to P<0.05) of increasing risk with higher levels of both daytime (average A weighted equivalent noise 7 am to 11 pm, LAeq,16h) and night time (11 pm to 7 am, Lnight) aircraft noise. When areas experiencing the highest levels of daytime aircraft noise were compared with those experiencing the lowest levels (>63 dB v ≤51 dB), the relative risk of hospital admissions for stroke was 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.43), for coronary heart disease was 1.21 (1.12 to 1.31), and for cardiovascular disease was 1.14 (1.08 to 1.20) adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, and a smoking proxy (lung cancer mortality) using a Poisson regression model including a random effect term to account for residual heterogeneity. Corresponding relative risks for mortality were of similar magnitude, although with wider confidence limits. Admissions for coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease were particularly affected by adjustment for South Asian ethnicity, which needs to be considered in interpretation. All results were robust to adjustment for particulate matter (PM10) air pollution, and road traffic noise, possible for London boroughs (population about 2.6 million). We could not distinguish between the effects of daytime or night time noise as these measures were highly correlated. Conclusion High levels of aircraft noise were associated with increased risks of stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease for both hospital admissions and mortality in areas near Heathrow airport in London. As well as the possibility of causal associations, alternative explanations such as residual confounding and potential for ecological bias should be considered.

Occupational cancer burden in Great Britain

A sound knowledge base is required to target resources to reduce workplace exposure to carcinogens. This project aimed to provide an objective estimate of the burden of cancer in Britain due to occupation. This volume presents extensive analyses for all carcinogens and occupational circumstances defined as definite or probable human occupational carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. This article outlines the structure of the supplement – two methodological papers (statistical approach and exposure assessment), eight papers presenting the cancer-specific results grouped by broad anatomical site, a paper giving industry sector results and one discussing work-related cancer-prevention strategies. A brief summary of the methods and an overview of the updated overall results are given in this introductory paper. A general discussion of the overall strengths and limitations of the study is also presented. Overall, 8010 (5.3%) total cancer deaths in Britain and 13, 598 cancer registrations were attributable to occupation in 2005 and 2004, respectively. The importance of cancer sites such as mesothelioma, sinonasal, lung, nasopharynx, breast, non-melanoma skin cancer, bladder, oesophagus, soft tissue sarcoma and stomach cancers are highlighted, as are carcinogens such as asbestos, mineral oils, solar radiation, silica, diesel engine exhaust, coal tars and pitches, dioxins, environmental tobacco smoke, radon, tetrachloroethylene, arsenic and strong inorganic mists, as well as occupational circumstances such as shift work and occupation as a painter or welder. The methods developed for this project are being adapted by other countries and extended to include social and economic impact evaluation.

Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities in women and children's nutritional status in Pakistan in 2011: an analysis of data from a nationally representative survey

Summary Background Pakistan has one of the highest levels of child and maternal undernutrition worldwide, but little information about geographical and socioeconomic inequalities is available. We aimed to analyse anthropometric indicators for childhood and maternal nutrition at a district level in Pakistan and assess the association of nutritional status with food security and maternal and household socioeconomic factors. Methods We used data from the 2011 Pakistan National Nutrition Survey, which included anthropometric measurements for 33 638 children younger than 5 years and 24 826 women of childbearing age. We estimated the prevalences of stunting, wasting, and underweight among children and of underweight, overweight, and obesity in women for all 143 districts of Pakistan using a Bayesian spatial technique. We used a mixed-effect linear model to analyse the association of nutritional status with individual and household sociodemographic factors and food security. Findings Stunting prevalence in Pakistans districts ranged between 22% (95% credible interval 19–26) and 76% (69–83); the lowest figures for wasting and underweight were both less than 2·5% and the highest were 42% (34–50) for wasting and 54% (49–59) for underweight. In 106 districts, more women were overweight than were underweight; in 49 of these districts more women were obese than were underweight. Children were better nourished if their mothers were taller or had higher weight, if they lived in wealthier households, and if their mothers had 10 or more years of education. Severe food insecurity was associated with worse nutritional outcomes for both children and women. Interpretation We noted large social and geographical inequalities in child and maternal nutrition in Pakistan, masked by national and provincial averages. Pakistan is also beginning to face the concurrent challenge of high burden of childhood undernutrition and overweight and obesity among women of reproductive age. Planning, implementation, and evaluation of programmes for food and nutrition should be based on district-level needs and outcomes. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Grand Challenges Canada, UK Medical Research Council.

Associations between air pollution and socioeconomic characteristics, ethnicity and age profile of neighbourhoods in England and the Netherlands

Air pollution levels are generally believed to be higher in deprived areas but associations are complex especially between sensitive population subgroups. We explore air pollution inequalities at national, regional and city level in England and the Netherlands comparing particulate matter (PM10) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations and publicly available population characteristics (deprivation, ethnicity, proportion of children and elderly). We saw higher concentrations in the most deprived 20% of neighbourhoods in England (1.5 μg/m(3) higher PM10 and 4.4 μg/m(3) NO2). Concentrations in both countries were higher in neighbourhoods with >20% non-White (England: 3.0 μg/m(3) higher PM10 and 10.1 μg/m(3) NO2; the Netherlands: 1.1 μg/m(3) higher PM10 and 4.5 μg/m(3) NO2) after adjustment for urbanisation and other variables. Associations for some areas differed from the national results. Air pollution inequalities were mainly an urban problem suggesting measures to reduce environmental air pollution inequality should include a focus on city transport.

Trends and inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality across 7932 English electoral wards, 1982–2006: Bayesian spatial analysis

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has more than halved in England since the 1980s, but there are few data on small-area trends. We estimated CVD mortality by ward in 5-year intervals between 1982 and 2006, and examined trends in relation to starting mortality, region and community deprivation. Methods We analysed CVD death rates using a Bayesian spatial technique for all 7932 English electoral wards in consecutive 5-year intervals between 1982 and 2006, separately for men and women aged 30–64 years and ≥65 years. Results Age-standardized CVD mortality declined in the majority of wards, but increased in 186 wards for women aged ≥65 years. The decline was larger where starting mortality had been higher. When grouped by deprivation quintile, absolute inequality between most- and least-deprived wards narrowed over time in those aged 30–64 years, but increased in older adults; relative inequalities worsened in all four age–sex groups. Wards with high CVD mortality in 2002–06 fell into two groups: those in and around large metropolitan cities in northern England that started with high mortality in 1982–86 and could not ‘catch up’, despite impressive declines, and those that started with average or low mortality in the 1980s but ‘fell behind’ because of small mortality reductions. Conclusions Improving population health and reducing health inequalities should be treated as related policy and measurement goals. Ongoing analysis of mortality by small area is essential to monitor local effects on health and health inequalities of the public health and healthcare systems.

Associations between Green Space and Health in English Cities: An Ecological, Cross- Sectional Study

Green space has been identified as a modifiable feature of the urban environment and associations with physiological and psychological health have been reported at the local level. This study aims to assess whether these associations between health and green space are transferable to a larger scale, with English cities as the unit of analysis. We used an ecological, cross-sectional study design. We classified satellite-based land cover data to quantify green space coverage for the 50 largest cities in England. We assessed associations between city green space coverage with risk of death from all causes, cardiovascular disease, lung cancer and suicide between 2002 and 2009 using Poisson regression with random effect. After adjustment for age, income deprivation and air pollution, we found that at the city level the risk of death from all causes and a priori selected causes, for men and women, did not significantly differ between the greenest and least green cities. These findings suggest that the local health effects of urban green space observed at the neighbourhood level in some studies do not transfer to the city level. Further work is needed to establish how urban residents interact with local green space, in order to ascertain the most relevant measures of green space.

How much does benzene contribute to the overall burden of cancer due to occupation

(2008),doi:10.1016/j.cbi.2009.11.007This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication.As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript.Themanuscriptwillundergocopyediting,typesetting,andreviewoftheresultingproofbefore it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production processerrors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers thatapply to the journal pertain.Chemico-Biological Interactions, Volume 184, Issues 1-2, 19 March 2010, Pages 290-292

Examining the Association between Deprivation Profiles and Air Pollution in Greater London using Bayesian Dirichlet Process Mixture Models

Standard regression analyses are often plagued with problems encountered when one tries to make inference going beyond main effects, using datasets that contain dozens of variables that are potentially correlated. This situation arises, for example, in environmental deprivation studies, where a large number of deprivation scores are used as covariates, yielding a potentially unwieldy set of interrelated data from which teasing out the joint effect of multiple deprivation indices is difficult. We propose a method, based on Dirichlet-process mixture models that addresses these problems by using, as its basic unit of inference, a profile formed from a sequence of continuous deprivation measures. These deprivation profiles are clustered into groups and associated via a regression model to an air pollution outcome. The Bayesian clustering aspect of the proposed modeling framework has a number of advantages over traditional clustering approaches in that it allows the number of groups to vary, uncovers clusters and examines their association with an outcome of interest and fits the model as a unit, allowing a region’s outcome potentially to influence cluster membership. The method is demonstrated with an analysis UK Indices of Deprivation and PM10 exposure measures corresponding to super output areas (SOA’s) in greater London.