Lea Tuvikene

Contemporary trends of temperature, nutrient loading, and water quality in large Lakes Peipsi and Võrtsjärv, Estonia

From 1961–2004, surface water temperature in large and shallow Lakes Peipsi and Võrtsjärv in Estonia increased significantly in April and August; respectively 0.37–0.75 and 0.32–0.42 degrees per decade reflecting the changes in air temperature. The average annual amount of precipitation in the catchment increased significantly. Reflecting practices in agriculture and wastewater treatment, nutrient loadings to the lakes increased rapidly in the 1980s and decreased again in the early 1990s. As total nitrogen (TN) loading decreased faster than total phosphorus (TP) loading, the TN/TP ratio in the loadings decreased. Both the increased temperature and low TN/TP ratio favoured the development of cyanobacteria blooms in Lake Peipsi. In Võrtsjärv, where the TN/TP mass ratio is about two times higher than in Peipsi, blooms did not occur. Recently, the TN/TP ratio has shown a tendency of increase in both lakes suggesting a certain reduction of blooms to be expected also in Lake Peipsi. Nutrient dynamics in the lakes followed the changes in loadings, showing the ability of shallow lake ecosystems to react sensitively to changes in catchment management as well as in climate.

Dissolved organic carbon and its potential predictors in eutrophic lakes

Understanding of the true role of lakes in the global carbon cycle requires reliable estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and there is a strong need to develop remote sensing methods for mapping lake carbon content at larger regional and global scales. Part of DOC is optically inactive. Therefore, lake DOC content cannot be mapped directly. The objectives of the current study were to estimate the relationships of DOC and other water and environmental variables in order to find the best proxy for remote sensing mapping of lake DOC. The Boosted Regression Trees approach was used to clarify in which relative proportions different water and environmental variables determine DOC. In a studied large and shallow eutrophic lake the concentrations of DOC and coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were rather high while the seasonal and interannual variability of DOC concentrations was small. The relationships between DOC and other water and environmental variables varied seasonally and interannually and it was challenging to find proxies for describing seasonal cycle of DOC. Chlorophyll a (Chl a), total suspended matter and Secchi depth were correlated with DOC and therefore are possible proxies for remote sensing of seasonal changes of DOC in ice free period, while for long term interannual changes transparency-related variables are relevant as DOC proxies. CDOM did not appear to be a good predictor of the seasonality of DOC concentration in Lake Võrtsjärv since the CDOM-DOC coupling varied seasonally. However, combining the data from Võrtsjärv with the published data from six other eutrophic lakes in the world showed that CDOM was the most powerful predictor of DOC and can be used in remote sensing of DOC concentrations in eutrophic lakes.

Why do phytoplankton species composition and “traditional” water quality parameters indicate different ecological status of a large shallow lake?

Long-term data on phytoplankton species composition in large and shallow Lake Võrtsjärv indicated a sharp deterioration of the ecological status at the end of the 1970s. The more traditional water quality indicators, such as the concentrations of nutrients and chlorophyll a, phytoplankton biomass, and Secchi depth, failed to capture this tipping point or even showed an improvement of the status at that time. As the shift coincided with a large increase of the lake’s water level (WL), we hypothesized that direct effect of the changing WL on traditional water quality indicators might have blurred the picture. We removed statistically the direct effect of the WL and the seasonality from the traditional water quality indicators in order to minimize the effects of natural variability. The average of the standardised water quality indicators, used as a proxy for the ecological status, distinguished a period of fast eutrophication in the first half of the 1970s (not captured by the phytoplankton species index), a fast improvement at the end of the 1970s (when the species index showed deterioration) followed by a continuous deterioration trend (when the species index remained rather constant). The causes of this inconsistency are discussed in the light of the alternative stable states theory and the priority of biotic indicators stipulated by the EU Water Framework Directive.

Factors controlling the three-decade long rise in cyanobacteria biomass in a eutrophic shallow lake

We aimed at quantifying the importance of limnological variables in the decadal rise of cyanobacteria biomass in shallow hemiboreal lakes. We constructed estimates of cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) biomass in a large, eutrophic lake (Estonia, Northeastern Europe) from a database comprising 28 limnological variables and spanning more than 50years of monitoring. Using a dual-model approach consisting in a boosted regression trees (BRT) followed by a generalized least squares (GLS) model, our results revealed that six variables were most influential for assessing the variance of cyanobacteria biomass. Cyanobacteria response to nitrate concentration and rotifer abundance was negative, whereas it was positive to pH, temperature, cladoceran and copepod biomass. Response to total phosphorus (TP) and total phosphorus to total nitrogen ratio was very weak, which suggests that actual in-lake TP concentration is still above limiting values. The most efficient GLS model, which explained nearly two thirds (r2=0.65) of the variance of cyanobacteria biomass included nitrate concentration, water temperature and pH. The very high number of observations (maximum n=525) supports the robustness of the models. Our results suggest that the decadal rise of blue-green algae in shallow lakes lies in the interaction between cultural eutrophication and global warming which bring in-lake physical and chemical conditions closer to cyanobacteria optima.

Ecosystem services of Lake Võrtsjärv under multiple stress: a case study

This study is the first attempt at the European scale to make an inventory of ecosystem services (ESS) of a large lake. We analysed a set of ESS indicators against the annual mean values of environmental parameters for 2006–2013. According to principal component analysis, the trophic state- and hydrology-related factors explained about 70% of the environmental variability of the lake and showed strong relationships with some ESS. Among the provisioning ESS, the annual eel catch and the total fish catch were positively related to different eutrophication indicators while the catches of pike, bream, and burbot depended rather on hydrological factors. Reed harvesting efficiency was related to the lake’s water level. The indicators of regulating, maintenance, and cultural ESS showed very high variability in different years, the latter depending on socio-economic conditions rather than environmental factors. We discovered numerous trade-offs between ESS benefitting from higher trophic state or regulated water level of the lake and the goals of good ecological status of the lake. Our analysis showed a clear need for rules prioritizing life supporting regulatory services against other ESS.