Leah Shepherd

Survival of HIV-positive patients starting antiretroviral therapy between 1996 and 2013: a collaborative analysis of cohort studies

Summary Background Health care for people living with HIV has improved substantially in the past two decades. Robust estimates of how these improvements have affected prognosis and life expectancy are of utmost importance to patients, clinicians, and health-care planners. We examined changes in 3 year survival and life expectancy of patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 1996 and 2013. Methods We analysed data from 18 European and North American HIV-1 cohorts. Patients (aged ≥16 years) were eligible for this analysis if they had started ART with three or more drugs between 1996 and 2010 and had at least 3 years of potential follow-up. We estimated adjusted (for age, sex, AIDS, risk group, CD4 cell count, and HIV-1 RNA at start of ART) all-cause and cause-specific mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for the first year after ART initiation and the second and third years after ART initiation in four calendar periods (1996–99, 2000–03 [comparator], 2004–07, 2008–10). We estimated life expectancy by calendar period of initiation of ART. Findings 88 504 patients were included in our analyses, of whom 2106 died during the first year of ART and 2302 died during the second or third year of ART. Patients starting ART in 2008–10 had lower all-cause mortality in the first year after ART initiation than did patients starting ART in 2000–03 (adjusted HR 0·71, 95% CI 0·61–0·83). All-cause mortality in the second and third years after initiation of ART was also lower in patients who started ART in 2008–10 than in those who started in 2000–03 (0·57, 0·49–0·67); this decrease was not fully explained by viral load and CD4 cell count at 1 year. Rates of non-AIDS deaths were lower in patients who started ART in 2008–10 (vs 2000–03) in the first year (0·48, 0·34–0·67) and second and third years (0·29, 0·21–0·40) after initiation of ART. Between 1996 and 2010, life expectancy in 20-year-old patients starting ART increased by about 9 years in women and 10 years in men. Interpretation Even in the late ART era, survival during the first 3 years of ART continues to improve, which probably reflects transition to less toxic antiretroviral drugs, improved adherence, prophylactic measures, and management of comorbidity. Prognostic models and life expectancy estimates should be updated to account for these improvements. Funding UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, EU EDCTP2 programme.

Prognostic value of vitamin D level for all-cause mortality, and association with inflammatory markers, in HIV-infected persons

BACKGROUND Low 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) has been associated with inflammation, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression, and death. We aimed to identify the prognostic value of 25(OH)D for AIDS, non-AIDS-defining events and death, and its association with immunological/inflammatory markers. METHODS Prospective 1-1 case-control study nested within the EuroSIDA cohort. Matched cases and controls for AIDS (n = 50 matched pairs), non-AIDS-defining (n = 63) events and death (n = 41), with plasma samples during follow-up were selected. Conditional logistic regression models investigated associations between 25(OH)D levels and annual 25(OH)D change and the probability of events. Mixed models investigated relationships between 25(OH)D levels and immunological/inflammatory markers. RESULTS In sum, 250 patients were included. Median time between first and last sample and last sample and event was 44.6(interquartile range [IQR]: 22.7-72.3) and 3.1(IQR: 1.4-6.4) months. Odds of death decreased by 46.0%(95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-70.0, P = .04) for a 2-fold increase in latest 25(OH)D level. There was no association between 25(OH)D and the occurrence of AIDS or non-AIDS-defining events (P > .05). In patients with current 25(OH)D <10 ng/mL, hsIL-6 concentration increased by 4.7%(95% CI, .2,9.4, P = .04) annually after adjustment for immunological/inflammatory markers, and no change in hsCRP rate was observed (P = .76). CONCLUSIONS Low Vitamin D predicts short term mortality in HIV-positive persons. Effectiveness of vitamin D supplementation on inflammation and patient outcomes should be investigated.

Cancer risk and use of protease inhibitor or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based combination antiretroviral therapy : the D: A: D study

Background:The association between combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and cancer risk, especially regimens containing protease inhibitors (PIs) or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), is unclear. Methods:Participants were followed from the latest of D:A:D study entry or January 1, 2004, until the earliest of a first cancer diagnosis, February 1, 2012, death, or 6 months after the last visit. Multivariable Poisson regression models assessed associations between cumulative (per year) use of either any cART or PI/NNRTI, and the incidence of any cancer, non–AIDS-defining cancers (NADC), AIDS-defining cancers (ADC), and the most frequently occurring ADC (Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma) and NADC (lung, invasive anal, head/neck cancers, and Hodgkin lymphoma). Results:A total of 41,762 persons contributed 241,556 person-years (PY). A total of 1832 cancers were diagnosed [incidence rate: 0.76/100 PY (95% confidence interval: 0.72 to 0.79)], 718 ADC [0.30/100 PY (0.28–0.32)], and 1114 NADC [0.46/100 PY (0.43–0.49)]. Longer exposure to cART was associated with a lower ADC risk [adjusted rate ratio: 0.88/year (0.85–0.92)] but a higher NADC risk [1.02/year (1.00–1.03)]. Both PI and NNRTI use were associated with a lower ADC risk [PI: 0.96/year (0.92–1.00); NNRTI: 0.86/year (0.81–0.91)]. PI use was associated with a higher NADC risk [1.03/year (1.01–1.05)]. Although this was largely driven by an association with anal cancer [1.08/year (1.04–1.13)], the association remained after excluding anal cancers from the end point [1.02/year (1.01–1.04)]. No association was seen between NNRTI use and NADC [1.00/year (0.98–1.02)]. Conclusions:Cumulative use of PIs may be associated with a higher risk of anal cancer and possibly other NADC. Further investigation of biological mechanisms is warranted.

Cause-Specific Mortality in HIV-Positive Patients Who Survived Ten Years after Starting Antiretroviral Therapy

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and prognostic factors in HIV-positive patients who started combination antiretroviral therapy between 1996–1999 and survived for more than ten years. Methods We used data from 18 European and North American HIV cohort studies contributing to the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration. We followed up patients from ten years after start of combination antiretroviral therapy. We estimated overall and cause-specific mortality rate ratios for age, sex, transmission through injection drug use, AIDS, CD4 count and HIV-1 RNA. Results During 50,593 person years 656/13,011 (5%) patients died. Older age, male sex, injecting drug use transmission, AIDS, and low CD4 count and detectable viral replication ten years after starting combination antiretroviral therapy were associated with higher subsequent mortality. CD4 count at ART start did not predict mortality in models adjusted for patient characteristics ten years after start of antiretroviral therapy. The most frequent causes of death (among 340 classified) were non-AIDS cancer, AIDS, cardiovascular, and liver-related disease. Older age was strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality, injecting drug use transmission with non-AIDS infection and liver-related mortality, and low CD4 and detectable viral replication ten years after starting antiretroviral therapy with AIDS mortality. Five-year mortality risk was <5% in 60% of all patients, and in 30% of those aged over 60 years. Conclusions Viral replication, lower CD4 count, prior AIDS, and transmission via injecting drug use continue to predict higher all-cause and AIDS-related mortality in patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy for over a decade. Deaths from AIDS and non-AIDS infection are less frequent than deaths from other non-AIDS causes.

Mortality According to CD4 Count at Start of Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-infected Patients Followed for up to 15 Years After Start of Treatment: Collaborative Cohort Study

The strong association of CD4 count at start of combination therapy with subsequent survival in HIV-infected patients diminished during the first 5 years of treatment. After 5 years, lower baseline CD4 counts were not associated with higher mortality.

Infection-related and -unrelated malignancies, HIV and the aging population

HIV‐positive people have increased risk of infection‐related malignancies (IRMs) and infection‐unrelated malignancies (IURMs). The aim of the study was to determine the impact of aging on future IRM and IURM incidence.

Mortality according to CD4 count at start of combination antiretroviral therapy among HIV positive patients followed for up to 15 years after start of treatment: collaborative cohort study

The strong association of CD4 count at start of combination therapy with subsequent survival in HIV-infected patients diminished during the first 5 years of treatment. After 5 years, lower baseline CD4 counts were not associated with higher mortality.

Trends in Incidences and Risk Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Other Liver Events in HIV and Hepatitis C Virus–coinfected Individuals From 2001 to 2014: A Multicohort Study

BACKGROUND While liver-related deaths in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected individuals have declined over the last decade, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) may have increased. We describe the epidemiology of HCC and other liver events in a multicohort collaboration of HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals. METHODS We studied HCV antibody-positive adults with HIV in the EuroSIDA study, the Southern Alberta Clinic Cohort, the Canadian Co-infection Cohort, and the Swiss HIV Cohort study from 2001 to 2014. We calculated the incidence of HCC and other liver events (defined as liver-related deaths or decompensations, excluding HCC) and used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios. RESULTS Our study comprised 7229 HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals (68% male, 90% white). During follow-up, 72 cases of HCC and 375 other liver events occurred, yielding incidence rates of 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3, 2.0) and 8.6 (95% CI, 7.8, 9.5) cases per 1000 person-years of follow-up, respectively. The rate of HCC increased 11% per calendar year (95% CI, 4%, 19%) and decreased 4% for other liver events (95% CI, 2%, 7%), but only the latter remained statistically significant after adjustment for potential confounders. Older age, cirrhosis, and low current CD4 cell count were associated with a higher incidence of both HCC and other liver events. CONCLUSIONS In HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals, the crude incidence of HCC increased from 2001 to 2014, while other liver events declined. Individuals with cirrhosis or low current CD4 cell count are at highest risk of developing HCC or other liver events.

Major differences in organization and availability of health care and medicines for HIV/TB coinfected patients across Europe

The aim of the study was to investigate the organization and delivery of HIV and tuberculosis (TB) health care and to analyse potential differences between treatment centres in Eastern (EE) and Western Europe (WE).

Poor Linkage to Care Despite Significant Improvement in Access to Early cART in Central Poland – Data from Test and Keep in Care (TAK) Project

Background The main objective of the TAK project is investigating barriers in accessing HIV care after HIV-diagnosis at the CBVCTs of central Poland. Here we describe factors associated with and changes over time in linkage to care and access to cART. Method Data collected in 2010–2013 in CBVCTs were linked with HIV clinics records using unique identifiers. Individuals were followed from the day of CBVCTs visit until first clinical visit or 4/06/2014. Cox-proportional hazard models were used to identify factors associated with being linked to care and starting cART. Results In total 232 persons were diagnosed HIV-positive and 144 (62.1% 95%CI: 55.5–68.3) persons were linked to care. There was no change over time in linkage to care (p = 0.48), while time to starting cART decreased (p = 0.02). Multivariate factors associated with a lower rate of linkage to care were hetero/bisexual sexual orientation, lower education, not having an HIV-positive partner and not using condoms in a stable relationship. Multivariate factors associated with starting cART were lower education, recent year of linked to care, and first HIV RNA and CD4 cell count. Conclusions Benefits of linkage to care, measured by access to early treatment, steadily improved in recent years. However at least 1 in 3 persons aware of their HIV status in central Poland remained outside professional healthcare. Persons at higher risk of remaining outside care, thus target population for future interventions, are bi/heterosexuals and those with lower levels of education.