Lidan Guo

Hydrological Changes of the Irtysh River and the Possible Causes

Hydrological changes of the Irtysh River were analyzed concerning the changes of annual runoff and its distribution features within a year measured by coefficient of variation and concentration degree. Abrupt changes were detected by the heuristic segmentation method. Possible causes of the hydrological changes were investigated considering climate changes and human activities (especially the reservoir operation). The Mann-Kendall method was applied to estimate whether the temperature and precipitation was changed. The increased precipitation in winter may increase the runoff of April. The increased temperature and the decreased precipitation in the flood season may decrease the runoff. At the middle reaches, the impact of the reservoirs at the upper reaches is significant and may be the main factor leading to the abrupt decreases in annual runoff and its intra-annual variability and concentration. The increased water surface area of the reservoirs aggravates the evaporation and leads to annual runoff reduction. The reservoirs regulate runoff by storing water in the flood season and releasing water in the dry season. While at the lower reaches, the annual runoff remained steady and its intra-annual variation and concentration were reduced gradually because the impact of the reservoirs is relative small and the climatic impact may be more relevant.

Climate change detection and annual extreme temperature analysis of the Irtysh Basin

As the largest tributary of the Ob River, the Irtysh River is an international river partially joining the territories of China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Four meteorological stations in the Irtysh Basin were selected and the long-term observed daily temperature data were collected. The extreme temperature change was analyzed considering climate change. Detected by the heuristic segmentation by histogram comparison approach, climate was changed during the first half of the 1970s in terms of the increased mean value and decreased standard deviation of the daily temperature series. The noticeable change of the monthly mean temperature was the warmer winter. After climate change, the annual maximum temperature was little changed and its series was not segmented. However, the annual minimum temperature was significantly changed in terms of the increased mean value by more than 2°C, so its series was segmented to the pre- and post-change point subseries. The generalized extreme value distribution was fitted to the annual extreme temperature and the parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood method. The return levels for 10/50/100-year return periods estimated by the profile likelihood method were obtained for the annual extreme temperature. The probability of occurrence of the cold extremes was decreased after 1970s.

Investigation into Multi-Temporal Scale Complexity of Streamflows and Water Levels in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

The streamflow and water level complexity of the Poyang Lake basin has been investigated over multiple time-scales using daily observations of the water level and streamflow spanning from 1954 through 2013. The composite multiscale sample entropy was applied to measure the complexity and the Mann-Kendall algorithm was applied to detect the temporal changes in the complexity. The results show that the streamflow and water level complexity increases as the time-scale increases. The sample entropy of the streamflow increases when the timescale increases from a daily to a seasonal scale, also the sample entropy of the water level increases when the time-scale increases from a daily to a monthly scale. The water outflows of Poyang Lake, which is impacted mainly by the inflow processes, lake regulation, and the streamflow processes of the Yangtze River, is more complex than the water inflows. The streamflow and water level complexity over most of the time-scales, between the daily and monthly scales, is dominated by the increasing trend. This indicates the enhanced randomness, disorderliness, and irregularity of the streamflows and water levels. This investigation can help provide a better understanding to the hydrological features of large freshwater lakes. Ongoing research will be made to analyze and understand the mechanisms of the streamflow and water level complexity changes within the context of climate change and anthropogenic activities.

Hydrological Changes of the Ili River in Kazakhstan and the Possible Causes

AbstractHydrological changes of the Ili River were analyzed concerning the changes of annual runoff and its distribution features within a year measured by coefficient of variation and concentration degree. Abrupt changes were detected by the heuristic segmentation method. Possible causes of the hydrological changes were investigated considering climate changes and human activities (especially the reservoir operation and irrigation extension). The Mann-Kendall method was applied to estimate whether the temperature and precipitation were changed. The increased temperature and the decreased precipitation in the flood season may decrease the runoff. At the middle reaches, the impact of the reservoir is significant and may be the main factor leading to the abrupt decreases in annual runoff and its intra-annual variability and concentration. The increased water surface area of the reservoir aggravates the evaporation and leads to annual runoff reduction. The reservoir regulates runoff by storing water in the f...

Evolution, opportunity and challenges of transboundary water and energy problems in Central Asia

Central Asia is one of the regions that suffer the most prominent transboundary water and energy problems in the world. Effective transboundary water-energy resource management and cooperation are closely related with socioeconomic development and stability in the entire Central Asia. Similar to Central Asia, Northwest China has an arid climate and is experiencing a water shortage. It is now facing imbalanced supply—demand relations of water and energy resources. These issues in Northwest China and Central Asia pose severe challenges in the implementation of the Silk Road Economic Belt strategy. Based on the analysis of water and energy distribution characteristics in Central Asia as well as demand characteristics of different countries, the complexity of local transboundary water problems was explored by reviewing corresponding historical problems of involved countries, correlated energy issues, and the evolution of inter-country water-energy cooperation. With references to experiences and lessons of five countries, contradictions, opportunities, challenges and strategies for transboundary water-energy cooperation between China and Central Asia were discussed under the promotion of the Silk Road Economic Belt construction based on current cooperation conditions.

Research on calculation methods of instream ecological flows

In this paper, through review analyses of the existing methods calculating instream ecological flow, the monthly minimum flow calculation method and monthly frequency calculation method were applied to the Yi-Luo River, located in Northern China; whats more, some proposals were made to improve ecological flow calculation for rivers of middle-size in Northern China: the variable continuous period method and the monthly second-minimum flow method to calculate the minimum ecological flow; the monthly second-maximum flow method and the upper bound reference method to calculate the maximum ecological flow, and the synthesis method of monthly frequency calculation to determine the optimal ecological flow. Results show that the ecological flow calculated by these improved methods is favorable to the ecological protection of rivers; the output will be helpful for water resource protection and river management.

Assessing the hydrologic alteration of the Yangtze River using the histogram matching approach

Hydrologic changes of the Yangtze River, an important river with abundant water resources in China, were investigated using the Histogram Matching Approach. Daily streamflow data spanning the time interval from 1955 to 2013 was collected from Yichang and Datong stations, which monitor the hydrologic processes of the upper and lower reach of the Yangtze River, respectively. The Gezhouba Dam, the first dam constructed at the main stream of the Yangtze River, started operations in 1981. 1981 was used to differentiate the pre-dam (1955-1980) and post-dam (1981-2013) hydrologic regimes. The hydrologic regime was quantified by the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration. The overall alteration degree of the upper Yangtze River was 31% and the alteration degree of every hydrologic indicator ranged from 10% to 81%. Only 1, 5 and 26 hydrologic indicators were altered at high, moderate and low degrees, respectively. The overall alteration degree of the lower Yangtze River was 30%, and the alteration degree of every hydrologic indicator ranged from 8% to 49%. No high alteration degree was detected at the Datong station. Ten hydrologic indicators were altered at moderate degrees and 22 hydrologic indicators were altered at low degrees. Significant increases could be observed for the low-flow relevant indicators, including the monthly flow from January-March, the annual minimum 1, 3, 7, 30 and 90-day flows, and the base flow index.