Lihui Zhao

Lifetime Risk and Years Lived Free of Total Cardiovascular Disease

CONTEXT Estimates of lifetime risk for total cardiovascular disease (CVD) may provide projections of the future population burden of CVD and may assist in clinician-patient risk communication. To date, no lifetime risk estimates of total CVD have been reported. OBJECTIVES To calculate lifetime risk estimates of total CVD by index age (45, 55, 65, 75 years) and risk factor strata and to estimate years lived free of CVD across risk factor strata. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Pooled survival analysis of as many as 905,115 person-years of data from 1964 through 2008 from 5 National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-funded community-based cohorts: Framingham Heart Study, Framingham Offspring Study, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry Study, and Cardiovascular Health Study. All participants were free of CVD at baseline with risk factor data (blood pressure [BP], total cholesterol [TC], diabetes, and smoking status) and total CVD outcome data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Any total CVD event (including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, all forms of stroke, congestive heart failure, and other CVD deaths). RESULTS At an index age of 45 years, overall lifetime risk for total CVD was 60.3% (95% CI, 59.3%-61.2%) for men and 55.6% (95% CI, 54.5%-56.7%) for women. Men had higher lifetime risk estimates than women across all index ages. At index ages 55 and 65 years, men and women with at least 1 elevated risk factor (BP, 140-149/90-99 mm Hg; or TC, 200-239 mg/dL; but no diabetes or smoking), 1 major risk factor, or at least 2 major risk factors (BP, ≥160/100 mm Hg or receiving treatment; TC, ≥240 mg/dL or receiving treatment; diabetes mellitus; or current smoking) had lifetime risk estimates to age 95 years that exceeded 50%. Despite an optimal risk factor profile (BP, <120/80 mm Hg; TC, <180 mg/dL; and no smoking or diabetes), men and women at the index age of 55 years had lifetime risks (through 85 years of age) for total CVD of greater than 40% and 30%, respectively. Compared with participants with at least 2 major risk factors, those with an optimal risk factor profile lived up to 14 years longer free of total CVD. CONCLUSIONS Lifetime risk estimates for total CVD were high (>30%) for all individuals, even those with optimal risk factors in middle age. However, maintenance of optimal risk factor levels in middle age was associated with substantially longer morbidity-free survival.

Moving Beyond the Hazard Ratio in Quantifying the Between-Group Difference in Survival Analysis

In a longitudinal clinical study to compare two groups, the primary end point is often the time to a specific event (eg, disease progression, death). The hazard ratio estimate is routinely used to empirically quantify the between-group difference under the assumption that the ratio of the two hazard functions is approximately constant over time. When this assumption is plausible, such a ratio estimate may capture the relative difference between two survival curves. However, the clinical meaning of such a ratio estimate is difficult, if not impossible, to interpret when the underlying proportional hazards assumption is violated (ie, the hazard ratio is not constant over time). Although this issue has been studied extensively and various alternatives to the hazard ratio estimator have been discussed in the statistical literature, such crucial information does not seem to have reached the broader community of health science researchers. In this article, we summarize several critical concerns regarding this conventional practice and discuss various well-known alternatives for quantifying the underlying differences between groups with respect to a time-to-event end point. The data from three recent cancer clinical trials, which reflect a variety of scenarios, are used throughout to illustrate our discussions. When there is not sufficient information about the profile of the between-group difference at the design stage of the study, we encourage practitioners to consider a prespecified, clinically meaningful, model-free measure for quantifying the difference and to use robust estimation procedures to draw primary inferences.

Home-Based Walking Exercise Intervention in Peripheral Artery Disease: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE Clinical practice guidelines state there is insufficient evidence to support advising patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD) to participate in a home-based walking exercise program. OBJECTIVE To determine whether a home-based walking exercise program that uses a group-mediated cognitive behavioral intervention, incorporating both group support and self-regulatory skills, can improve functional performance compared with a health education control group in patients with PAD with and without intermittent claudication. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Randomized controlled clinical trial of 194 patients with PAD, including 72.2% without classic symptoms of intermittent claudication, performed in Chicago, Illinois between July 22, 2008, and December 14, 2012. INTERVENTIONS Participants were randomized to 1 of 2 parallel groups: a home-based group-mediated cognitive behavioral walking intervention or an attention control condition. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was 6-month change in 6-minute walk performance. Secondary outcomes included 6-month change in treadmill walking, physical activity, the Walking Impairment Questionnaire (WIQ), and Physical and Mental Health Composite Scores from the 12-item Short-Form Health Survey. RESULTS Participants randomized to the intervention group significantly increased their 6-minute walk distance ([reported in meters] 357.4 to 399.8 vs 353.3 to 342.2 for those in the control group; mean difference, 53.5 [95% CI, 33.2 to 73.8]; P < .001), maximal treadmill walking time (intervention, 7.91 to 9.44 minutes vs control, 7.56 to 8.09; mean difference, 1.01 minutes [95% CI, 0.07 to 1.95]; P = .04), accelerometer-measured physical activity over 7 days (intervention, 778.0 to 866.1 vs control, 671.6 to 645.0; mean difference, 114.7 activity units [95% CI, 12.82 to 216.5]; P = .03), WIQ distance score (intervention, 35.3 to 47.4 vs control, 33.3 to 34.4; mean difference, 11.1 [95% CI, 3.9 to 18.1]; P = .003), and WIQ speed score (intervention, 36.1 to 47.7 vs control, 35.3-36.6; mean difference, 10.4 [95% CI, 3.4 to 17.4]; P = .004). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE A home-based walking exercise program significantly improved walking endurance, physical activity, and patient-perceived walking endurance and speed in PAD participants with and without classic claudication symptoms. These findings have implications for the large number of patients with PAD who are unable or unwilling to participate in supervised exercise programs. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00693940.

Effectively Selecting a Target Population for a Future Comparative Study

When comparing a new treatment with a control in a randomized clinical study, the treatment effect is generally assessed by evaluating a summary measure over a specific study population. The success of the trial heavily depends on the choice of such a population. In this article, we show a systematic, effective way to identify a promising population, for which the new treatment is expected to have a desired benefit, using the data from a current study involving similar comparator treatments. Specifically, using the existing data, we first create a parametric scoring system as a function of multiple baseline covariates to estimate subject-specific treatment differences. Based on this scoring system, we specify a desired level of treatment difference and obtain a subgroup of patients, defined as those whose estimated scores exceed this threshold. An empirically calibrated threshold-specific treatment difference curve across a range of score values is constructed. The subpopulation of patients satisfying any given level of treatment benefit can then be identified accordingly. To avoid bias due to overoptimism, we use a cross-training-evaluation method for implementing the above two-step procedure. We then show how to select the best scoring system among all competing models. Furthermore, for cases in which only a single prespecified working model is involved, inference procedures are proposed for the average treatment difference over a range of score values using the entire dataset and are justified theoretically and numerically. Finally, the proposals are illustrated with the data from two clinical trials in treating HIV and cardiovascular diseases. Note that if we are not interested in designing a new study for comparing similar treatments, the new procedure can also be quite useful for the management of future patients, so that treatment may be targeted toward those who would receive nontrivial benefits to compensate for the risk or cost of the new treatment. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Home-Based Walking Exercise in Peripheral Artery Disease: 12-Month Follow-up of the Goals Randomized Trial

Background We studied whether a 6‐month group‐mediated cognitive behavioral (GMCB) intervention for peripheral artery disease (PAD) participants, which promoted home‐based walking exercise, improved 6‐minute walk and other outcomes at 12‐month follow‐up, 6 months after completing the intervention, compared to a control group. Methods and Results We randomized PAD participants to a GMCB intervention or a control group. During phase I (months 1 to 6), the intervention used group support and self‐regulatory skills during weekly on‐site meetings to help participants adhere to home‐based exercise. The control group received weekly on‐site lectures on topics unrelated to exercise. Primary outcomes were measured at the end of phase I. During phase II (months 7 to 12), each group received telephone contact. Compared to controls, participants randomized to the intervention increased their 6‐minute walk distance from baseline to 12‐month follow‐up, (from 355.4 to 381.9 m in the intervention versus 353.1 to 345.6 m in the control group; mean difference=+34.1 m; 95% confidence interval [CI]=+14.6, +53.5; P<0.001) and their Walking Impairment Questionnaire (WIQ) speed score (from 36.1 to 46.5 in the intervention group versus 34.9 to 36.5 in the control group; mean difference =+8.8; 95% CI=+1.6, +16.1; P=0.018). Change in the WIQ distance score was not different between the 2 groups at 12‐month follow‐up (P=0.139). Conclusions A weekly on‐site GMCB intervention that promoted home‐based walking exercise intervention for people with PAD demonstrated continued benefit at 12‐month follow‐up, 6 months after the GMCB intervention was completed. Clinical Trial Registration URL: ClinicalTrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00693940.

Utilizing the integrated difference of two survival functions to quantify the treatment contrast for designing, monitoring and analyzing a comparative clinical study

Background Consider a comparative, randomized clinical study with a specific event time as the primary end point. In the presence of censoring, standard methods of summarizing the treatment difference are based on Kaplan–Meier curves, the logrank test, and the point and interval estimates via Cox’s procedure. Moreover, for designing and monitoring the study, one usually utilizes an event-driven scheme to determine the sample sizes and interim analysis time points. Purpose When the proportional hazards (PHs) assumption is violated, the logrank test may not have sufficient power to detect the difference between two event time distributions. The resulting hazard ratio estimate is difficult, if not impossible, to interpret as a treatment contrast. When the event rates are low, the corresponding interval estimate for the ‘hazard ratio’ can be quite large due to the fact that the interval length depends on the observed numbers of events. This may indicate that there is not enough information for making inferences about the treatment comparison even when there is no difference between two groups. This situation is quite common for a postmarketing safety study. We need an alternative way to quantify the group difference. Methods Instead of quantifying the treatment group difference using the hazard ratio, we consider an easily interpretable and model-free parameter, the integrated survival rate difference over a prespecified time interval, as an alternative. We present the inference procedures for such a treatment contrast. This approach is purely nonparametric and does not need any model assumption such as the PHs. Moreover, when we deal with equivalence or noninferiority studies and the event rates are low, our procedure would provide more information about the treatment difference. We used a cardiovascular trial data set to illustrate our approach. Results The results using the integrated event rate differences have a heuristic interpretation for the treatment difference even when the PHs assumption is not valid. When the event rates are low, for example, for the cardiovascular study discussed in this article, the procedure for the integrated event rate difference provides tight interval estimates in contrast to those based on the event-driven inference method. Limitations The design of a trial with the integrated event rate difference may be more complicated than that using the event-driven procedure. One may use simulation to determine the sample size and the estimated duration of the study. Conclusions The procedure discussed in this article can be a useful alternative to the standard PHs method in the survival analysis.

Prevalence of Suspected Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Hispanic/Latino Individuals Differs by Heritage

BACKGROUND & AIMS Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) was shown to disproportionally affect Hispanic persons. We examined the prevalence of suspected NAFLD in Hispanic/Latino persons with diverse backgrounds. METHODS We studied the prevalence of suspected NAFLD among 12,133 persons included in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos. We collected data on levels of aminotransferase, metabolic syndrome (defined by National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines), demographics, and health behaviors. Suspected NAFLD was defined on the basis of increased level of aminotransferase in the absence of serologic evidence for common causes of liver disease or excessive alcohol consumption. In multivariate analyses, data were adjusted for metabolic syndrome, age, acculturation, diet, physical activity, sleep, and levels of education and income. RESULTS In multivariate analysis, compared with persons of Mexican heritage, persons of Cuban (odds ratio [OR], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.85), Puerto Rican (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.87), and Dominican backgrounds (OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.54-0.93) had lower rates of suspected NAFLD. Persons of Central American and South American heritage had a similar prevalence of suspected NAFLD compared with persons of Mexican heritage. NAFLD was less common in women than in men (OR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.40-0.60). Suspected NAFLD associated with metabolic syndrome and all 5 of its components. CONCLUSIONS On the basis of an analysis of a large database of health in Latino populations, we found the prevalence of suspected NAFLD among Hispanic/Latino individuals to vary by region of heritage.

Coronary Heart Disease Risks Associated with High Levels of HDL Cholesterol

Background The association between high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL‐C) and coronary heart disease (CHD) events is not well described in individuals with very high levels of HDL‐C (>80 mg/dL). Methods and Results Using pooled data from 6 community‐based cohorts we examined CHD and total mortality risks across a broad range of HDL‐C, including values in excess of 80 mg/dL. We used Cox proportional hazards models with penalized splines to assess multivariable, adjusted, sex‐stratified associations of HDL‐C with the hazard for CHD events and total mortality, using HDL‐C 45 mg/dL and 55 mg/dL as the referent in men and women, respectively. Analyses included 11 515 men and 12 925 women yielding 307 245 person‐years of follow‐up. In men, the association between HDL‐C and CHD events was inverse and linear across most HDL‐C values; however at HDL‐C values >90 mg/dL there was a plateau effect in the pattern of association. In women, the association between HDL‐C and CHD events was inverse and linear across lower values of HDL‐C, however at HDL‐C values >75 mg/dL there were no further reductions in the hazard ratio point estimates for CHD. In unadjusted models there were increased total mortality risks in men with very high HDL‐C, however mortality risks observed in participants with very high HDL‐C were attenuated after adjustment for traditional risk factors. Conclusions We did not observe further reductions in CHD risk with HDL‐C values higher than 90 mg/dL in men and 75 mg/dL in women.

On the Restricted Mean Survival Time Curve in Survival Analysis

For a study with an event time as the endpoint, its survival function contains all the information regarding the temporal, stochastic profile of this outcome variable. The survival probability at a specific time point, say t, however, does not transparently capture the temporal profile of this endpoint up to t. An alternative is to use the restricted mean survival time (RMST) at time t to summarize the profile. The RMST is the mean survival time of all subjects in the study population followed up to t, and is simply the area under the survival curve up to t. The advantages of using such a quantification over the survival rate have been discussed in the setting of a fixed-time analysis. In this article, we generalize this approach by considering a curve based on the RMST over time as an alternative summary to the survival function. Inference, for instance, based on simultaneous confidence bands for a single RMST curve and also the difference between two RMST curves are proposed. The latter is informative for evaluating two groups under an equivalence or noninferiority setting, and quantifies the difference of two groups in a time scale. The proposal is illustrated with the data from two clinical trials, one from oncology and the other from cardiology.

Proximal superficial femoral artery occlusion, collateral vessels, and walking performance in peripheral artery disease

OBJECTIVES We studied associations of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-measured superficial femoral artery (SFA) occlusions with functional performance, leg symptoms, and collateral vessel number in peripheral artery disease (PAD). We studied associations of collateral vessel number with functional performance in PAD. BACKGROUND Associations of MRI-detected SFA occlusion and collateral vessel number with functional performance among individuals with PAD have not been reported. METHODS A total of 457 participants with an ankle brachial index (ABI) <1.00 had MRI measurement of the proximal SFA with 12 consecutive 2.5-μm cross-sectional images. An occluded SFA was defined as an SFA in which at least 1 segment was occluded. A nonoccluded SFA was defined as absence of any occluded slices. Collateral vessels were visualized with magnetic resonance angiography. Lower extremity functional performance was measured with the 6-min walk, 4-m walking velocity at usual and fastest pace, and the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) (0 to 12 scale, 12 = best). RESULTS Adjusting for age, sex, race, comorbidities, and other confounders, the presence of an SFA occlusion was associated with poorer 6-min walk performance (1,031 vs. 1,169 feet, p = 0.006), slower fast-paced walking velocity (1.15 vs. 1.22 m/s, p = 0.042), and lower SPPB score (9.07 vs. 9.75, p = 0.038) compared with the absence of an SFA occlusion. More numerous collateral vessels were associated with better 6-min walk performance (0 to 3 collaterals-1,064 feet, 4 to 7 collaterals-1,165 feet, ≥8 collaterals-1,246 feet, p trend = 0.007), faster usual-paced walking speed (0 to 3 collaterals-0.84 m/s, 4 to 7 collaterals-0.88 m/s, ≥8 collaterals-0.91 m/s, p trend = 0.029), and faster rapid-paced walking speed (0 to 3 collaterals-1.17 m/s, 4 to 7 collaterals-1.22 m/s, ≥8 collaterals-1.29 m/s, p trend = 0.002), adjusting for age, sex, race, comorbidities, ABI, and other confounders. CONCLUSIONS Among PAD participants, MRI-visualized occlusions in the proximal SFA are associated with poorer functional performance, whereas more numerous collaterals are associated with better functional performance. (Magnetic Resonance Imaging to Identify Characteristics of Plaque Build-Up in People With Peripheral Arterial Disease; NCT00520312).