Lijuan Miao

Future Climate Impact on the Desertification in the Dry Land Asia Using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g Data

Dry Land Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the northern hemisphere that suffers from land desertification. Over the period 1982–2011, there were both overall improvement and regional degeneration in the vegetation NDVI. We analyze future climate changes in these area using two ensemble-average methods from CMIP5 data. Bayesian Model Averaging shows a better capability to represent the future climate and less uncertainty represented by the 22-model ensemble than does the Simple Model Average. From 2006 to 2100, the average growing season temperature value will increase by 2.9 °C, from 14.4 °C to 17.3 °C under three climate scenarios (RCP 26, RCP 45 and RCP 85). We then conduct multiple regression analysis between climate changes compiled from the Climate Research Unit database and vegetation greenness from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. There is a general acceleration in the desertification trend under the RCP 85 scenario in middle and northern part of Middle Asia, northwestern China except Xinjiang and the Mongolian Plateau (except the middle part). The RCP 85 scenario shows a more severe desertification trend than does RCP 26. Desertification in dry land Asia, particularly in the regions highlighted in this study, calls for further investigation into climate change impacts and adaptations.

Climate impact on vegetation and animal husbandry on the Mongolian plateau: a comparative analysis

International research has focused more attention on arid and semiarid regions in recent years, as climate change has already had adverse impacts on grasslands and local households in the Mongolian plateau. Based on meteorological data, GIMMS AVHRR NDVI3g data, and livestock records, through statistical analysis, a significantly strong warming trend and a slightly decreasing trend in precipitation were ascertained in this region. Precipitation patterns are shifting, and intensifying, extreme events, such as droughts and dzud (extremely harsh winters characterized by heavy snow and low temperature), are a major threat to vegetation growth and animal husbandry development. Following a comparative analysis approach, we explored how the vegetation and animal husbandry response to climate change and extreme weather differ between Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. We found that vegetation growth generally decreased after the mid-1990s, but began to recover from 2001 over the entire region. The agricultural intensification level is higher in Inner Mongolia than in Mongolia, and residents in Inner Mongolia have a greater awareness of unexpected disasters than those in Mongolia. To deal with these challenges, this region warrants further study on how climate extremes will impact on regional animal husbandry and local social economics on the arid and semiarid regions. This could have implications for the international community, local government, local residents, and future scientific activities in this space.

China’s Land-Use Changes during the Past 300 Years: A Historical Perspective

Understanding the processes of historical land-use change is crucial to the research of global environmental sustainability. Here we examine and attempt to disentangle the evolutionary interactions between land-use change and its underlying causes through a historical lens. We compiled and synthesized historical land-use change and various biophysical, political, socioeconomic, and technical datasets, from the Qing dynasty to modern China. The analysis reveals a clear transition period between the 1950s and the 1980s. Before the 1950s, cropland expanded while forested land diminished, which was also accompanied by increasing population; after the 1980s land-use change exhibited new characteristics: changes in cropland, and decoupling of forest from population as a result of agricultural intensification and globalization. Chinese political policies also played an important and complex role, especially during the 1950s–1980s transition periods. Overall, climate change plays an indirect but fundamental role in the dynamics of land use via a series of various cascading effects such as shrinking agricultural production proceeding to population collapse and outbreaks of war. The expected continuation of agricultural intensification this century should be able to support increasing domestic demand for richer diets, but may not be compatible with long-term environmental sustainability.

A new global anthropogenic heat estimation based on high-resolution nighttime light data

Consumption of fossil fuel resources leads to global warming and climate change. Apart from the negative impact of greenhouse gases on the climate, the increasing emission of anthropogenic heat from energy consumption also brings significant impacts on urban ecosystems and the surface energy balance. The objective of this work is to develop a new method of estimating the global anthropogenic heat budget and validate it on the global scale with a high precision and resolution dataset. A statistical algorithm was applied to estimate the annual mean anthropogenic heat (AH-DMSP) from 1992 to 2010 at 1×1 km2 spatial resolution for the entire planet. AH-DMSP was validated for both provincial and city scales, and results indicate that our dataset performs well at both scales. Compared with other global anthropogenic heat datasets, the AH-DMSP has a higher precision and finer spatial distribution. Although there are some limitations, the AH-DMSP could provide reliable, multi-scale anthropogenic heat information, which could be used for further research on regional or global climate change and urban ecosystems.

Wake up “boiling frogs”: a study on animal husbandry under climate change in Northern China

The development of animal husbandry in China is facing enormous pressure from increasing demand of meat consumption, climate change, degrading grassland, and changing national policies. This paper presents the latest findings from an anthropological field investigation interviewing local herders, traders, and local officials from farming–pastoral ecotone in Inner Mongolia and shed lights on how locals have adapted their lives to climate change and the new national husbandry policies of the twenty-first century. Based on the anthropological interviews, we discussed the future opportunities and challenges of animal husbandry development in farming–pastoral ecotone. Results suggested that national ecological conservation policies and meat price have much larger impacts on animal husbandry than climate change, as perceived by locals. Family Fencing Policy, a relatively new policy aiming to avoid overgrazing and restore vegetation, was neither well accepted nor well implemented by the local herders. This is partially explained by the poor fencing technology, insufficient support facilities, as well as the high costs and low-profit margins in the animal husbandry. We conclude by suggesting that pastoralism in Northern China may greatly benefit from the development of rural cooperatives and active participation of locals in policy designing and implementation.