Lilliard E. Richardson

Motorcyclist fatality rates and mandatory helmet-use laws

Using cross-sectional time series data for the 50 states and Washington, DC, covering the period 1975-2004, we estimate fixed effects regression models that examine the effects of universal and partial helmet laws on three different motorcyclist fatality rates, while controlling for other state policies and characteristics. Depending on the particular measure that is employed, states with universal helmet laws have motorcyclist fatality rates that are on average 22-33% lower in comparison to the experience with no helmet law. Additionally, partial coverage helmet laws are associated with reductions in motorcyclist fatality rates of 7-10%, on average.

Gender Differences in Constituency Service Among State Legislators

Do female state legislators differ from men in constituency service? Using a four-state survey of state legislators, we find that women receive more casework requests, are twice as likely to believe that they perform more casework than their state colleagues, and are three times more likely to agree that they would perform more casework if additional staff were available, even after controlling for a variety of other explanations. These findings support the sex role socialization literature that argues that interpersonal relations figure more predominantly in the motives of female officeholders than for men.

Who is Early Voting? An Individual Level Examination

Abstract Objective. Early voting has been suggested as one method of increasing voter turnout. Allowing voters to cast their ballots during a longer time period may ameliorate some barriers to participation that exist. However, the question of whether early voting mobilizes previous nonvoting registrants or simply makes voting easier for those who would have participated anyway remains largely unanswered. Methods. We test these questions through the use of an individual level survey of voters in one Tennessee county. Using logistic regression, we consider the impact of demographic and attitudinal factors on the propensity to vote on election day or to use early voting. Results. We find marked differences between nonvoters and voters of either type, but we find few significant differences between early voters and traditional voters. We find little support for a mobilization effect and some evidence suggests that early voting merely conveniences those who would have voted anyway.

Traffic safety and the switch to a primary seat belt law: the California experience

This study explores whether the change of an existing seat belt law from secondary to primary enforcement enhances traffic safety. In particular, we examine traffic fatalities and injuries in California from 1988 to 1997. During the first half of this period, California law provided for secondary enforcement of its mandatory seat belt law, but in 1993 it upgraded the law to primary enforcement. Controlling for the number of motor vehicle collisions, a Box-Tiao intervention analysis of the time series is used to compare the monthly fatalities and injuries before and after the change in the enforcement provision. The results show that California experienced an improvement in traffic safety in terms of a significant reduction in injuries, but the change in enforcement provision had no statistically significant impact on fatalities.

Motorcycle Safety and the Repeal of Universal Helmet Laws

OBJECTIVES We assessed the implications for motorcyclist safety of recent repeals of universal helmet laws in 6 US states. METHODS We examined cross-sectional time-series data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia for the period 1975 through 2004. RESULTS On average, when compared to state experience with no helmet mandate, universal helmet laws were associated with an 11.1% reduction in motorcyclist fatality rates, whereas rates in states with partial coverage statutes were not statistically different from those with no helmet law. Furthermore, in the states in which recent repeals of universal coverage have been instituted, the motorcyclist fatality rate increased by an average of 12.2% over what would have been expected had universal coverage been maintained. Since 1997, an additional 615 motorcyclist fatalities have occurred in these states as a result of these changes in motorcycle helmet laws. CONCLUSIONS Motorcyclist safety has been compromised in the states that have repealed universal coverage and is likely to be compromised in other states that abandon these statutes.

Drinking-and-Driving in America: A Test of Behavioral Assumptions Underlying Public Policy

Since the 1980s, states have increasingly used sanctions to deter people from drinking-and-driving, but the effectiveness of these policies is questionable. The use of sanctions as policy tools rests on deterrence theory, but little is known about the appropriateness of its behavioral assumptions for the group targeted by policy—the drinking-driver. Employing a national survey of 4,008 respondents, we use logistic regression analysis to examine perceptions of punishment costs, the importance of individual versus societal costs, and policy preferences related to drink-driving. It was found that the perceptions of the punishment costs of drinking-and-driving are not consistent with basic hypotheses of deterrence theory. The results suggest that policies based on deterrence theory are likely to be least effective for the main target of these policies (frequent drink-drivers) and are likely to be unnecessary for non-drink-drivers. An alternative set of behavioral assumptions is provided that more closely fit the results obtained.

Safety Belt Use and the Switch to Primary Enforcement, 1991-2003

State seat belt laws have increased use rates and have reduced traffic fatalities, but tremendous variation exists in the laws. New Hampshire does not have a law, and 30 states have only secondary enforcement laws. Whereas primary enforcement allows an officer to issue a citation for any infraction, secondary enforcement permits a citation only if a motorist is stopped for another infraction first. We performed a cross-sectional time-series analysis of the impact of upgrading to primary enforcement on belt use rates for 47 states and the District of Columbia from 1991 to 2003. Our results suggest that states with secondary enforcement laws could increase belt use by 10 percentage points and improve public safety considerably by upgrading to primary enforcement.

Legislative Representation in a Single-Member versus Multiple-Member District System: The Arizona State Legislature

Most research on legislative decisionmaking has focused on legislatures with single-member district systems, but much less is known about legislatures with multiple-member district systems. This study compares a multiple-member legislative chamber, the Arizona House of Representatives, to a single-member system, the Arizona Senate. First, we examine the ideological preferences across the two chambers, and we find that the House system produces more ideological extremism than the Senate. Second, we test a model of legislative decisionmaking that employs constituency variables, legislator attributes and ideology. We find that constituency characteristics are significant in the Senate, but in the House ideology dominates. The combination of ideological extremism and its greater importance in decisionmaking in the House suggests powerful effects of the multiple-member district system.

The Effect of State Regulations on Truck-Crash Fatalities

To improve traffic safety, states limit truck length and weight, and some set lower speed limits for trucks than for other vehicles. We examined the impact of truck-specific restrictions and general traffic-safety policies on fatality rates from crashes involving large trucks. We used state-level data from 1991 to 2005 with a cross-sectional time-series model that controlled for several policy measures. We found that higher speed limits for cars and trucks contributed to higher fatality rates, but differential speed limits by vehicle type had no significant impact. Truck-length limitations reduced fatalities in crashes involving large trucks. Our model estimates suggested that if all states had adopted a speed limit of 55 miles per hour for all vehicles in 2005, an additional 561 fatalities would have been averted.

Penalizing the Party: Health Care Reform Issue Voting in the 2010 Election

Many political pundits characterized the 2010 election as a referendum on President Obama’s health care reform law. The political science literature on issue voting, however, does not consistently demonstrate that these types of policy evaluations are central to citizens’ vote choices. Moreover, existing theories suggest different predictions about how the health care reform issue would affect elections across different levels of government. Studying data from the 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES), the analysis indicates that those opposed to health care reform were less likely to vote for Democratic candidates in the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate, state gubernatorial, and state attorneys general contests, controlling for partisan affiliation, political ideology, perceptions of the economy, and evaluations of other salient policy issues. These findings suggest that, across the board, Democrats were penalized for their support of health care reform, and more generally provide evidence of the role of noneconomic issue voting in U.S. elections.