Lindsay G.S. Bengtson

Atrial fibrillation and risk of ST-segment-elevation versus non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

Background— It has recently been reported that atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI). However, the mechanism underlying this association is currently unknown. Further study of the relationship of AF with the type of MI (ST-segment–elevation MI [STEMI] versus non–ST-segment–elevation MI [NSTEMI]) might shed light on the potential mechanisms. Methods and Results— We examined the association between AF and incident MI in 14 462 participants (mean age, 54 years; 56% women; 26% blacks) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who were free of coronary heart disease at baseline (1987–1989) with follow-up through December 31, 2010. AF cases were identified from study visit ECGs and by review of hospital discharge records. Incident MI and its types were ascertained by an independent adjudication committee. Over a median follow-up of 21.6 years, 1374 MI events occurred (829 NSTEMIs, 249 STEMIs, 296 unclassifiable MIs). In a multivariable-adjusted model, AF (n=1545) as a time-varying variable was associated with a 63% increased risk of MI (hazard ratio,1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.32–2.02). However, AF was associated with NSTEMI (hazard ratio, 1.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.39–2.31) but not STEMI (hazard ratio, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.18–1.34; P for hazard ratio comparison=0.004). Combining the unclassifiable MI group with either STEMI or NSTEMI did not change this conclusion. The association between AF and MI, total and NSTEMI, was stronger in women than in men (P for interaction <0.01 for both). Conclusions— AF is associated with an increased risk of incident MI, especially in women. However, this association is limited to NSTEMI.

Intracranial Hemorrhage Mortality in Atrial Fibrillation Patients Treated With Dabigatran or Warfarin

Background and Purpose— In randomized trials, patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving dabigatran, a direct oral anticoagulant, had lower risk of intracranial bleeding (ICB) than those on warfarin. However, concerns exist about potential worse outcomes in dabigatran users if bleeding occurs, given the lack of approved reversal agents. Thus, we examined in-hospital mortality in AF patients with ICB being treated with dabigatran versus warfarin in a real-world population in the United States. Methods— We analyzed healthcare utilization claims in the Truven Health Marketscan Research Databases. The study sample included patients with AF admitted to a hospital with a primary diagnosis of ICB. Information on medications, inpatient, and outpatient diagnoses was obtained from available claims. Propensity score–adjusted risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals of in-hospital mortality comparing current users of dabigatran versus warfarin were estimated using relative risk regression. Results— Among 2391 AF patients admitted with ICB (2290 on warfarin, 101 on dabigatran), 531 died during their admission. In-hospital mortality was similar in those treated with warfarin (22%) or dabigatran (20%). Compared with warfarin users, the propensity score–adjusted risk ratio (95% confidence interval) of mortality in dabigatran users was 0.93 (0.62–1.37). Associations were similar across different ICB subtypes (intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and subdural hematoma). Conclusions— In this sample of AF patients with ICB on oral anticoagulants, dabigatran was not associated with higher in-hospital mortality compared with warfarin. Hence, reluctance to use dabigatran because of a lack of approved reversal agents is not supported by our results.

A Rising Tide: The Global Epidemic of Atrial Fibrillation

In his seminal lecture to the Massachusetts Medical Society in 1997, Dr. Eugene Braunwald pointed to atrial fibrillation (AF) as an emerging epidemic of cardiovascular disease.1 At that time, information on the burden—prevalence, incidence, and associated outcomes—of AF in the general population was limited to a few epidemiologic studies, most of them conducted in the United States and Western Europe. Since then, dozens of publications have contributed to provide a clearer picture of the real impact of AF. These publications confirmed Dr. Braunwalds prediction, demonstrating that AF is the most common sustained arrhythmia in clinical practice and a major public health concern. In the last couple of years, two systematic reviews of the literature on global epidemiology of AF have provided concrete evidence of our increasing knowledge in this area.2, 3 Both reviews highlighted the growing prevalence and incidence of this arrhythmia globally, but also called attention to the limited information on AF epidemiology in developing countries. One of the reviews, for example, only identified six publications reporting the incidence of AF outside North American and Western Europe.2

Lifetime Risk and Risk Factors for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm in a 24-Year Prospective Study The ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities)

Objective—Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is an important vascular disease in older adults, but data on lifetime risk of AAA are sparse. We examined lifetime risk of AAA in a community-based cohort and prospectively assessed the association between midlife cardiovascular risk factors and AAAs. Approach and Results—In ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), 15 792 participants were recruited at visit 1 in 1987 to 1989 and followed up through 2013. Longitudinal smoking status was defined using smoking behavior ascertained from visit 1 (1987–1989) to visit 4 (1996–1998). We followed up participants for incident, clinical AAAs using hospital discharge diagnoses, Medicare outpatient diagnoses, or death certificates through 2011 and identified 590 incident AAAs. An abdominal ultrasound was conducted in 2011 to 2013 in 5911 surviving participants, and 75 asymptomatic AAAs were identified. We estimated the lifetime risk of AAA from the index age 45 years through 85 years of age. At age 45, the lifetime risk for AAA was 5.6% (95% confidence interval, 4.8–6.1) and was higher in men (8.2%) and current smokers (10.5%). Smokers who quit smoking between visit 1 and visit 4 had a 29% lower AAA lifetime risk compared with continuous smokers but had a higher risk than pre-visit 1 quitters. The lifetime risk of rupture or medical intervention was 1.6% (95% confidence interval, 1.2–1.8). Smoking, white race, male sex, greater height, and greater low-density lipoprotein or total cholesterol were associated with an increased risk of clinical AAA and asymptomatic AAA. Conclusions—At least 1 in 9 middle-aged current smokers developed AAA in their lifetime. Smoking cessation reduced the lifetime risk of AAA.

Comparative effectiveness of dabigatran and rivaroxaban versus warfarin for the treatment of non-valvular atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND Effectiveness data on novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) versus warfarin for stroke prevention in non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) by prior warfarin use are limited. METHODS We used data from the US MarketScan databases from 2009 to 2012. NVAF patients initiating dabigatran or rivaroxaban were matched with up to 5 warfarin users. Propensity score-adjusted Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for relevant endpoints in NOACs versus warfarin users. Separate analyses were conducted to compare anticoagulant-naïve users of NOACs and those switching from warfarin. RESULTS Among 32,918 dabigatran, 3301 rivaroxaban, and 109,447 warfarin users with NVAF, 225 intracranial bleeds, 1035 ischemic strokes, 958 myocardial infarctions, and 1842 gastrointestinal bleeds were identified. Compared to warfarin users, patients initiating NOACs had similar ischemic stroke rates and lower intracranial bleeding rates, while the gastrointestinal bleeding rate was higher in dabigatran users than warfarin users. Associations of dabigatran with ischemic stroke risk differed between anticoagulant-naïve initiators and patients switching from warfarin; dabigatran was associated with lower ischemic stroke rates in naïve users (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.52-0.82) but not in switchers (HR 1.20, 95% CI 0.95-1.51), compared to warfarin. Risk of stroke and bleeding was not different between rivaroxaban and warfarin users. CONCLUSIONS Real-world effectiveness of NOACs (compared to warfarin) for diverse outcomes was comparable to efficacy reported in published clinical trials. However, harms and benefits of switching from warfarin to dabigatran need to be evaluated.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea and 15-Year Cognitive Decline: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVES Prospective data evaluating abnormal sleep quality and quantity with cognitive decline are limited because most studies used subjective data and/or had short follow-up. We hypothesized that, over 15 y of follow-up, participants with objectively measured obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and other indices of poor sleep quantity and quality would experience greater decline in cognitive functioning than participants with normal sleep patterns. METHODS ARIC participants (n = 966; mean age 61 y, 55% women) with in-home polysomnography (1996-1998) and repeated cognitive testing were followed for 15 y. Three cognitive tests (Delayed Word Recall, Word Fluency, and Digit Symbol Substitution) were administered at two time points (1996-1998 and 2011-2013). Ten additional cognitive tests were administered at the 2011-2013 neurocognitive examination. OSA was modeled using established clinical OSA severity categories. Multivariable linear regression was used to explore associations of OSA and other sleep indices with change in cognitive tests between the two assessments. RESULTS A median of 14.9 y (max: 17.3) passed between the two cognitive assessments. OSA category and additional indices of sleep (other measures of hypoxemia and disordered breathing, sleep fragmentation, sleep duration) were not associated with change in any cognitive test. Analyses of OSA severity categories and 10 cognitive tests administered only in 2011-2013 also showed little evidence of an association. CONCLUSIONS Overall, abnormal sleep quality and quantity at midlife was not related to cognitive decline and later-life cognition. The effect of adverse sleep quality and quantity on cognitive decline among the elderly remains to be determined.

Comparable Ascertainment of Newly-Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation Using Active Cohort Follow-Up versus Surveillance of Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Objective Increasingly, epidemiologic studies use administrative data to identify atrial fibrillation (AF). Capture of incident AF is not well documented. We examined incidence rates and concordance of AF diagnosis based on active cohort follow-up versus surveillance of Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. Methods Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort participants without prevalent AF enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare, with inpatient and outpatient coverage, for at least 12 continuous months between 1991 and 2009 were included. In active Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study follow-up, annual telephone calls captured hospitalizations and deaths with incident AF diagnosis codes. For Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data, incident AF was defined by billed inpatient and outpatient diagnoses. Results Of 10,134 eligible cohort participants, 738 developed AF according to both Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data; an additional 93 and 288 incident cases were identified using only Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data, respectively. Incidence rates per 1,000 person-years were 10.8 (95% confidence interval: 10.1–11.6) and 13.6 (95% confidence interval: 12.8–14.4) in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, respectively; agreement was 96%; kappa was 0.77 (95% confidence interval: 0.75–0.80). Earlier AF ascertainment by one system versus the other was not associated with any cardiovascular disease risk factors, after accounting for sociodemographic factors. Additional Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services events did not alter observed associations between risk factors and AF. Conclusion Among fee-for-service enrollees, AF incidence rates were slightly lower for active cohort follow-up than for Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services surveillance, because the latter included outpatient atrial fibrillation. Concordance was high and combining the two approaches could provide a more complete picture of newly-diagnosed AF.

Prospective study of oral anticoagulants and risk of liver injury in patients with atrial fibrillation

Objective To assess the risk of liver injury hospitalisation in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) after initiation of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) or warfarin and to determine predictors of liver injury hospitalisation in this population. Methods We studied 113 717 patients (mean age 70, 39% women) with AF included in the MarketScan Commercial and Medicare Supplemental databases with a first prescription for oral anticoagulation after 4 November 2011, followed through 31 December 2014. Of these, 56 879 initiated warfarin, 17 286 initiated dabigatran, 30 347 initiated rivaroxaban and 9205 initiated apixaban. Liver injury hospitalisation and comorbidities were identified from healthcare claims. Results During a median follow-up of 12 months, 960 hospitalisations with liver injury were identified. Rates of liver injury hospitalisation (per 1000 person-years) by oral anticoagulant were 9.0 (warfarin), 4.0 (dabigatran), 6.6 (rivaroxaban) and 5.6 (apixaban). After multivariable adjustment, liver injury hospitalisation rates were lower in initiators of DOACs compared with warfarin: HR (95% CI) of 0.57 (0.46 to 0.71), 0.88 (0.75 to 1.03) and 0.70 (0.50 to 0.97) for initiators of dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban, respectively (vs. warfarin). Compared with dabigatran initiators, rivaroxaban initiators had a 56% increased risk of liver injury hospitalisation (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.99). In addition to type of anticoagulant, prior liver, gallbladder and kidney disease, cancer, anaemia, heart failure and alcoholism significantly predicted liver injury hospitalisation. A predictive model including these variables had adequate discriminative ability (C-statistic 0.67, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.70). Conclusions Among patients with non-valvular AF, DOACs were associated with lower risk of liver injury hospitalisation compared with warfarin, with dabigatran showing the lowest risk.

Impact of Atrial Fibrillation on Healthcare Utilization in the Community: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risk of hospitalization. Little is known about the impact of AF on utilization of noninpatient health care or about sex or race differences in AF‐related utilization. We examined rates of inpatient and outpatient utilization by AF status in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. Methods and Results Participants with incident AF enrolled in fee‐for‐service Medicare for at least 12 continuous months between 1991 and 2009 (n=932) were matched on age, sex, race and field center with up to 3 participants without AF (n=2729). Healthcare utilization was ascertained from Medicare claims and classified by primary International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision code. The average annual numbers of days hospitalized were 13.2 (95% CI 11.6 to 15.0) and 2.8 (95% CI 2.5 to 3.1) for those with and without AF, respectively. The corresponding numbers of annual outpatient claims were 53.3 (95% CI 50.5 to 56.3) and 22.9 (95% CI 22.1 to 23.8) for those with and without AF, respectively. Most utilization among AF patients was attributable to non‐AF conditions. The adjusted rate ratio for annual days hospitalized for other cardiovascular disease–related reasons was 4.58 (95% CI: 3.41 to 6.16) for those with AF versus those without AF. The association between AF and healthcare utilization was similar among men and women and among white and black participants. Conclusions Participants with AF had considerably greater healthcare utilization, and the difference in utilization for other cardiovascular disease–related reasons was substantial. In addition to rate or rhythm treatment, AF management should focus on the accompanying cardiovascular comorbidities.

Temporal Trends in the Occurrence and Outcomes of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction (from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Surveillance Study)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently coexists in the setting of myocardial infarction (MI), being associated with increased mortality. Nonetheless, temporal trends in the occurrence of AF complicating MI and in the prognosis of these patients are not well described. We examined temporal trends in prevalence of AF in the setting of MI and the effect of AF on prognosis in the community. We studied a population-based sample of 20,049 validated first-incident nonfatal hospitalized MIs among 35- to 74-year old residents of 4 communities in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study from 1987 through 2009. Prevalence of AF in the setting of MI increased from 11% to 15% during the 23-year study period. The multivariable adjusted odds ratio for prevalent AF, per 5-year increment, was 1.11 (95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.19). Overall, in patients with MI, AF was associated with increased 1-year case fatality (odds ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 2.01) compared with those without AF. However, there was no evidence that the impact of AF on MI survival changed over time or differed over time by sex, race, or MI classification (all p values >0.10). In conclusion, co-occurrence of AF in MI slightly increased between 1987 and 2009. The adverse impact of AF on survival in the setting of MI was consistent throughout. In the setting of MI, co-occurrence of AF should be viewed as a critical clinical event, and treatment needs unique to this population should be explored further.