Lolagene C. Coombs

Preference scales for number and sex of Children

Summary A measurement—theoretical approach to the scaling of preferences for number of children and sex composition is developed to provide a feasible field procedure for studying factors affecting size bias and sex bias and for studying the effects of such biases on realized family size. The measures, reflecting the individuals utility for number and sex of children, go beyond global stated preferences and are sensitive to deviations from a first choice. The procedures derive from a model based on developments in psychological measurement in unfolding theory and additive conjoint measurement. This model disentangles size and sex bias, giving independent measures of each. A methodological sample of University of Michigan students is used to test and illustrate various aspects of the model in some detail. Field pre-tests in Taiwan provide data from another culture for further testing of the model and method. In addition, simplified and abbreviated interview procedures were field-tested there. Two other se...

The measurement of family size preferences and subsequent fertility

A new method for measuring preferences for number of children is presented and related to the subsequent fertility of a panel of married women over a five-year period. TheI-scales, developed on the basis of unfolding theory, reflect the individual’s utility function for children. They differ from global stated preferences and are more fine-grained measures, sensitive to variations from a first choice. Scales obtained at an initial interview were found to be consistently predictive of fertility in the prospective period, net of a number of other variables usually associated with differential fertility. Their potential both as independent and dependent variables in research is discussed.

Stability and change in expectations about family size: A longitudinal study

ResumenEn tres erdreuisias realizadas en el transcurso de dos años entre mujeres de Detroit que habían tenido su primero, su segundo o su cuarto nacimiento, se encontró una notable estabilidad en las respuestas acerca del número de hijos esperados. En muchos casos individuales hubo pequeñios cambios, pero los efectos se compensaron. Se encontró que varias características sociales, especialmente la religión y la ocupación; se relacionaban con la intensidad del cambio, pero no con su. dirección, de suerte que esta inestabilidad produce escaso efecto neto sobre las expectativas de conjunto, aun en los subgrupos. Dosfactores examinados ejercenfuerte influjo en la estabilidad del tamaño de lafamilia esperada y en la dirección del cambio. Un embarazo durante el período estudiado a menudo provocó tendencias ascendentes en las expectativas; la incapacidad de quedar embarazada la mujer se tradujo en tendencias descendentes, al trastornarse los planes de espaciamiento de los hijos. Cuando existía discrepancia entre el número preferido y el número esperado de hijos, se daban cambios frecuentes en el sentido de reducir tal discrepancia.Los resultados de este andlisis concuerdan con la opinión de que las normas sociales relativas al tamaño de lafamilia tienden a regir la conducta de las parejas, los cambios son pequeños, se sobreponen y se compensan.

Childspacing and family economic position.

It was found that the timing of births after marriage had a strong and consistent relationship to the economic position of a sample of white Detroit couples who had recently had a 1st 2nd or 4th birth in that the position was substantially better the longer the interval to 1st or to last birth. Those wives already pregnant with their 1st child at the time of marriage were particularly disadvantaged. The 20% of the sample who were premaritally pregnant were found to have had their subsequent children more quickly and showed the strongest relationships between childspacing and economic position. Whether early and rapid family growth caused relatively low income status could not be determined. The relationship between tempo of family growth and level of income was diminished but not eliminated when marital duration and husbands education were controlled for. It is suggested that those who had children very quickly after marrage found themselves under great economic pressure particularly if they married at an early age and that they were more likely than others to become discouraged early on in the quest for economic success.(Authors modified)

Husband-wife agreement about reproductive goals

Data from Malaysia on the reproductive goals of husbands and wives are analyzed to determine level of agreement, using new scale measures on preferences for number and sex of children as well as the conventional measure of desired number of children. The level of agreement between husband and wife varies considerably depending on the focus of analysis and the measure of agreement used. Overall aggregate agreement of men and women is high but lower for subgroups of the population, particularly among various ethnic groups. For marital partners, the agreement is much lower, especially on sex preferences. The level observed depends on whether the measure is identity of responses or an index of homogeneity which allows for couple concordance based on chance or common socialization factors. The views about the reproductive goals of one marital partner cannot with confidence be assumed to represent the views of the other.

Do husbands and wives agree? Fertility attitudes and later behavior

Analysis of the extent to which husbands and wives agree in their attitudes toward a number of key issues that may affect fertility behavior shows that although aggregate views of men and women are remarkably similar, marital couples are frequently in disagreement, particularly if measures discounting for chance agreement of responses are employed. In other words, we cannot accept either the husband or the wife as a surrogate respondent. These conclusions are based on data from cross-sectional surveys in a developing society, Taiwan, of 2000 couples in which the wife was of childbearing age. The impact on fertility of such marital disagreement varies with the attitude in question. Followup birth data over a four-year period indicate that, when there is disagreement, it is the wifes attitude that has more influence on fertility, particularly if she has the stronger belief about the future security and status to be derived from a large family and from sons.

Family composition preferences in a developing culture: The case of Taiwan, 1973.

Abstract As fertility comes increasingly under voluntary control in a developing society, it can be argued that individual desires or preferences about children will become more salient and more significant for eventual fertility. Hence, the study of preferences is increasingly important as contraceptive use is extended and results in decreasing the number of unwanted births.(1) Further changes in fertility then depend on changes in preferences. The assumption is that people will at least try to achieve the families they want, if the means to do so are available. The fact that contraception is used at all is some evidence of the soundness of this assumption, although it should be recognized that family size desires operate in a complex of preferences, under varying degrees of conflict and control. To expect a one-to-one relationship between attitudes or preferences and overt behaviour would be simplistic.

Correlates of Marital Dissolution in a Prospective Fertility Study: A Research Note

Couples whose marriages dissolved during a five year period of a longitudinal fertility study of family growth patterns in the Detroit area show marked differences compared to those who remained married. Data are based on intensive home interviews with a cross-section sample of 1304 women at important family life stages, taken prior to the time of marital disruption. Couples divorced or permanently separated in the subsequent five year period were lower in socioeconomic status than those remaining married, and were also distinctive in fertility patterns. The disparities between aspiration and actuality, marital role perception and role performance, attitudes and actions, which characterize the dissolved marriages are of special interest.

Economic considerations in family growth decisions

Abstract Examination of the fertility patterns of a sample of white Detroit couples at selected stages of the family life cycle indicates that, in a large American metropolis, family income is more closely related to the time when a family is formed and has its children than to the number of children it expects to have. In a longitudinal study, current income is strongly related to the timing of demographic events-the age at marriage, whether pre-maritally pregnant, the time interval from marriage to a given parity, and fertility during a two-year follow-up period. This paper also explores the hypothesis that a familys evaluation of its economic position and the choices it makes about important family expenditures has a relation to fertility apart from the familys objective current income level. Couples who consider their income adequate for their needs or relatively greater than that of their friends or peers, and those who expect substantial increases in the future, tend to expect more children than those who do not. Small but consistent differences obtain over the parities studied. Variables indexing alternative family expenditure patterns, such as cars, or savings for college education for children, are associated with lower family size expectations and longer spacing patterns.

REPRODUCTIVE GOALS AND ACHIEVED FERTILITY: A FIFTEEN-YEAR PERSPECTIVE

A measure of underlying family size preference obtained for a sample of Detroit married women in 1962 is related to their fertility over a 15-year follow-up period. The data represent completed fertility. The I-scale preference measure used differs from the conventional single-valued statement of number of children wanted; it is a more fine-grained measure reflecting the respondent’s utility for children as evidenced by her entire preference order. The scales are found to be consistently predictive of fertility over the 15-year prospective period, net of a number of other variables usually associated with differential fertility. The results for the just-married sample, in which preferences and expectations are not confounded with the number of children already born, are particularly striking, with underlying preference much better than expected family size as a predictor of fertility over the entire reproductive cycle. The question of prediction for continuous and discontinuous marriages is discussed.