Ronald Freedman

The Origins of the Chinese Fertility Decline

Education and urbanization are shown to have been negatively correlated to marital fertility in both urban and rural China prior to the initiation of the substantial family planning programs. We maintain that early use of contraception by better educated and urban strata is a plausible cause of the observed fertility differentials because other proximate variables are unlikely. Coale’s m, a presumed indicator of controlled fertility, suggests early fertility control in urban and better educated strata. The apparent preprogram beginnings of fertility control among educational and urban elites does not, however, minimize the awesome effects on fertility of the powerful Chinese family planning programs, once begun.

Changes in fertility expectations and preferences between 1962 and 1977: Their relation to final parity

Changing fertility expectations and preferences from 1962 to 1977 are compared with final parity in a longitudinal study. Results are strongly affected by initial parity in 1962. Final parity, 27 percent below expectations for those initially childless, illustrates the effect for couples free to change expectations downward of declining fertility preferences. Changes in expectations early in marriage had a significant long-term effect on final parity, as did early differences between wife’s expectations and husband’s preferences. Unplanned births increased final parity significantly. Religion, education, and income had no systematic relation to the discrepancy between initial expectations and final parity.

Household composition, extended kinship and reproduction in Taiwan: 1973-1980.

Co-residence of a married couple with the husbands parents continues to be an important aspect of family life in Taiwan. This form of household extension continues despite Taiwans industrialization and convergence with a Western model of consumption, and despite the increase in the prevalence of nuclear households over the past twenty years. Increases in nuclear units are associated primarily with declines in proportions living in households that are extended both laterally and across generations, while the percentage living with a parent in a stem household has declined only modestly since 1973. In all, declines in co-residence notwithstanding, in 1985 nearly half the respondents resided in extended units. In 1985, as in 1980, a history of residence in an extended household was related to more traditional reproductive behaviour.

Demographic aspects of lactation and postpartum amenorrhea

Interrelations between lactation and post-partum amenorrhea are studied from the reports of about 5,000 married women included in a 1966 Follow-up Survey of Acceptors of an Intrauterine Device (IUD) in Taiwan. The length of post-partum amenorrhea and of breastfeeding are positively associated. On an average, breastfeeding delayed the resumption of menstruation by about 7 months. The association between lactation and amenorrhea is not accounted for by differences in mother’s age, parity, education and her place of residence. A multiple regression analysis suggests that (1) age affects amenorrhea both directly and through lactation, (2) parity has no independent effect on either lactation or amenorrhea, and (3) education and place of residence affect amenorrhea mainly through the cultural variations in the practice of breastfeeding.

Trends in fertility, family size preferences, and family planning practice: Taiwan, 1961-80.

A series of 7 sample surveys and vital statistics are used to analyze major reproductive trends in Taiwan. The long term secular decline in fertility has leveled off, at least temporarily. The use of birth control is at very high levels, so that a large majority of women who want no more children are using contraception. 1st preferences for number of children, which decreased rapidly between 1970 and 1976, remained almost stationary between 1976 and 1980. However, the Coombs preference scales indicate a continuing decline in the underlying preference for large numbers of children. Nevertheless, the continuing preference for sons and the persistence of traditional familial forms may retard further fertility decline.

Stability and change in expectations about family size: A longitudinal study

ResumenEn tres erdreuisias realizadas en el transcurso de dos años entre mujeres de Detroit que habían tenido su primero, su segundo o su cuarto nacimiento, se encontró una notable estabilidad en las respuestas acerca del número de hijos esperados. En muchos casos individuales hubo pequeñios cambios, pero los efectos se compensaron. Se encontró que varias características sociales, especialmente la religión y la ocupación; se relacionaban con la intensidad del cambio, pero no con su. dirección, de suerte que esta inestabilidad produce escaso efecto neto sobre las expectativas de conjunto, aun en los subgrupos. Dosfactores examinados ejercenfuerte influjo en la estabilidad del tamaño de lafamilia esperada y en la dirección del cambio. Un embarazo durante el período estudiado a menudo provocó tendencias ascendentes en las expectativas; la incapacidad de quedar embarazada la mujer se tradujo en tendencias descendentes, al trastornarse los planes de espaciamiento de los hijos. Cuando existía discrepancia entre el número preferido y el número esperado de hijos, se daban cambios frecuentes en el sentido de reducir tal discrepancia.Los resultados de este andlisis concuerdan con la opinión de que las normas sociales relativas al tamaño de lafamilia tienden a regir la conducta de las parejas, los cambios son pequeños, se sobreponen y se compensan.

Do Family Planning Programs Affect Fertility Preferences? A Literature Review

A literature review finds few studies about whether family planning programs have reduced fertility preferences. The strong and surprising evidence from Matlab, Bangladesh, demonstrated that this intensive program did not decrease preferences; however, it did crystallize latent demand for fewer children, resulting in a demand for contraception. One cross-national multivariate study was consistent with this finding. A few intracountry multivariate studies found small program effects, decreasing the number of children that couples want. An intensive multimethod study in India found plausible larger effects. Most studies of program media effects are flawed by possible selection bias, but one longitudinal study avoids this pitfall and finds large effects for one country. Program feedback effects are plausible but not yet demonstrated empirically. The effects of a coercive program are plausible, at least in China, but not definitively demonstrated. Several promising unpublished studies may strengthen the case for program effects in reducing fertility preferences, now often based on plausible but not conclusive evidence. Stronger generalizations require better studies of a wider range of locations.

The contribution of social science research to population policy and family planning program effectiveness.

Social science research has made important contributions to population policy and to the effectiveness of family planning programs. Social science concepts, theories, and methods potentially are relevant to all aspects of reproductive behavior, including actual fertility, proximate variables, and desired family size. Social science research also contributes to the understanding of the social, economic, and political institutions that potentially affect, either directly or indirectly, the whole biosocial reproductive system and family planning programs. At least as important as its specific theories and findings is the role of social science in testing how to adapt such knowledge to distinctive national and local cultural circumstances of family planning programs. A central point is that carefully monitored pilot projects are desirable before launching full-scale national programs, as well as being continuing resources for program development. The research on early programs in Asia has been important, because those programs encountered and overcame some of the presumed obstacles to new programs.

Childspacing and family economic position.

It was found that the timing of births after marriage had a strong and consistent relationship to the economic position of a sample of white Detroit couples who had recently had a 1st 2nd or 4th birth in that the position was substantially better the longer the interval to 1st or to last birth. Those wives already pregnant with their 1st child at the time of marriage were particularly disadvantaged. The 20% of the sample who were premaritally pregnant were found to have had their subsequent children more quickly and showed the strongest relationships between childspacing and economic position. Whether early and rapid family growth caused relatively low income status could not be determined. The relationship between tempo of family growth and level of income was diminished but not eliminated when marital duration and husbands education were controlled for. It is suggested that those who had children very quickly after marrage found themselves under great economic pressure particularly if they married at an early age and that they were more likely than others to become discouraged early on in the quest for economic success.(Authors modified)

The rise in female education in China: national and regional patterns.

This paper utilizes [Chinese] census and survey data to describe change in female education nationally and for four major regional populations from 1952 to 1982. Because it is plausible that the educational trends and differentials are related to other aspects of Chinese social political and economic history they are presented here in some detail....[The authors] consider the history of gender equality in educational opportunity as reflected in educational progression ratios [and]....introduce as a demonstration of the significance of female education education-specific rates of marriage and fertility. (EXCERPT)