Loraine McFadden

A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise

Abstract A new global coastal database has been developed within the context of the DINAS-COAST project. The database covers the worlds coasts, excluding Antarctica, and includes information on more than 80 physical, ecological, and socioeconomic parameters of the coastal zone. The database provides the base data for the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modelling tool that the DINAS-COAST project has produced. In order to comply with the requirements of the modelling tool, it is based on a data model in which all information is referenced to more than 12,000 linear coastal segments of variable length. For efficiency of data storage, six other geographic features (administrative units, countries, rivers, tidal basins or estuaries, world heritage sites, and climate grid cells) are used to reference some data, but all are linked to the linear segment structure. This fundamental linear data structure is unique for a global database and represents an efficient solution to the problem of representing and storing coastal data. The database has been specifically designed to support impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise at a range of scales up to global. Due to the structure, consistency, user-friendliness, and wealth of information in the database, it has potential wider application to analysis and modelling of the worlds coasts, especially at regional to global scales.

Governing Coastal Spaces: The Case of Disappearing Science in Integrated Coastal Zone Management

Scientific knowledge is central to “good” governance of coastal spaces: developing methods through which the complexities of the coastal zone can be understood by stakeholders to improve the sustainable management of coastal systems. Enhancing our knowledge of the range of processes that shape coastal spaces and define the total behavioural environment of the system remains a primary challenge for the coastal research community. However, this article raises the argument that current approaches to Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)—the preferred governing framework for the coastal environment, do not give sufficient emphasis to this fundamental need. Improving the basic scientific knowledge that underpins policymaking at the coast is argued to be urgently needed. Issues such as that of developing a communality of the purpose and approach between stakeholders within the coastal zone (through conflict resolution and access to information, for example) seem to claim the rights of the integrated management research agenda. However, the very nature of ICZM as “worthwhile coastal management” requires that integrated management represents more than a governing framework. Successful integration in coastal management must also be underpinned by knowledge of the integrated behavior of the system. Science has an increasingly marginalized position within ICZM and as a result geographers, contributing knowledge of the patterns and processes of the human and environmental landscapes, are also becoming a disappearing breed in integrated coastal management.

A Methodology for Modeling Coastal Space for Global Assessment

Abstract A coherent approach to structuring reference units for coastal vulnerability analysis is often required for large-scale analyses of the coastal system. However, a review of existing spatial reference frameworks within vulnerability analyses demonstrates that our use of coastal space within large-scale models remains relatively poor. This paper examines a series of challenges to spatial modeling that have emerged from the development of a national to global impact tool, DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment). The paper addresses how best to utilize the limited data to develop a reference framework for modeling vulnerability within the global coastal environment. It outlines the approach to spatial modeling that has been developed for use within the DIVA tool: segmenting the coastal zone into a series of relatively homogenous reference units at the scale of DIVA, based on the behavior of the physical, social, and economic systems within the zone. The importance of effective spatially defined models is emphasized within the paper. Encouraging greater spatial recognition and definition of the behavioral environment of the coast is critical to modeling space within the coastal system. By decreasing spatial uncertainties in the creation of reference units for vulnerability analysis, the accuracy of modeling within large-scale coastal environments can be further improved.

Broad-scale modelling of coastal wetlands: what is required?

A Wetland Change Model has been developed to identify the vulnerability of coastal wetlands at broad spatial (regional to global (mean spatial resolution of 85 km)) and temporal scales (modelling period of 100 years). The model provides a dynamic and integrated assessment of wetland loss, and a means of estimating the transitions between different vegetated wetland types and open water under a range of scenarios of sea-level rise and changes in accommodation space from human intervention. This paper is an overview of key issues raised in the process of quantifying broad-scale vulnerabilities of coastal wetlands to forcing from sea-level rise discussing controlling factors of tidal range, sediment availability and accommodation space, identification of response lags and defining the threshold for wetland loss and transition.

Coastal Vulnerability as Discourse About Meanings and Values

This paper argues that any approach to defining vulnerability is a social act, and is expressive of and grounded in some assumptions about the nature and purpose of language. Managing a complex environment such as the coastal zone is necessarily about choice and conflicts. A purpose of language is to persuade others to adopt the course of action that the individual or group consider should be adopted. In consequence, the definitions of vulnerability will necessarily be multiple and contested. From the research perspective what is then of interest are those insights into the nature of the choice, and particularly as to appropriate course of action to adopt, that are generated by any specific elaboration of vulnerability. It is thus less what people say than why they say it that is of importance in understanding their definitions of vulnerability and the intentions that underlie their discourse.

A threatened world city: the benefits of protecting London from the sea

This paper describes the options appraisal undertaken in the UK within the major TE2100 project to investigate the future of protecting London from flooding from the sea. An economic analysis, within a Benefit-Cost framework complemented by Multi-Criteria Analysis, shows that improving the existing flood defences and, in 2070, constructing a new Thames Barrier downstream from the existing one are the “front runner” options for tackling the increase in flood risk that is anticipated in the future. Both sensitivity and scenario analysis have little effect on option choice. Uncertainties inevitably remain, however, when looking so far ahead, but it is clear that continuing to protect this area from the sea is highly cost-beneficial. Also the very high standard of protection now, and the robustness of the existing flood defence assets, mean that major new interventions will not be needed for some time (i.e. until c. 2070). We therefore have time to monitor the situation, carefully plan measures to maintain and enhance the existing defences, and to seek to restrain the growth of risk in the Estuary and in London through carefully designed and implemented resilience-building flood plain management measures. Rather than having to rush to new engineering works, because we have not anticipated what is needed but are forced to respond hastily to a “crisis” situation, the adaptive approach that is now possible is a key legacy of the TE2100 project.

Vulnerability analysis in environmental management : widening and deepening its approach

Current threshold-dominated methodologies of vulnerability analysis do not give sufficient emphasis to the processes that shape the environment and define the behaviour of environmental systems. While there has been widespread recognition for developing comprehensive approaches to assessing vulnerability, there has been relatively little theoretical debate on limitations and opportunities for improving the application of vulnerability analysis to environmental management, particularly in terms of a more complex systems perspective. A functional-based approach to ‘vulnerability’ is a means whereby the dynamics of vulnerable systems could be more fully integrated within vulnerability analysis. Functionality is seen as the ability of the environment to deliver outputs through time. Vulnerability analysis that is focused not only on thresholds that define the limits of system behaviour, but also on the process-defined capacity of systems to maintain this behaviour and deliver those outputs, could emerge as a useful element in integrated environmental management. Linking threshold analysis with a clear understanding of the interactions, differences and similarities between system processes which define coping ranges and system performance is a relatively simple conceptual development in vulnerability analysis. Such a development could, if successful, be of great value to those managing complex environments.

A global analysis of coastal erosion of beaches due to sea-level rise: an application of DIVA

This paper is a first attempt to assess the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise and coastal erosion of beaches, including nourishment. It considers direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion effects near selected tidal inlets and estuaries. For the scenarios considered and no nourishment, global land loss could be up to 190 km2/yr by 2100. In terms of impacts, forced migration is the largest cost at up to US (1995)

Exploring system interactions for building resilience within coastal environments and communities

17 billion/yr in 2100. Nourishment based on cost-benefit analysis would cost up to US (1995)

Critical reflections on a systems approach application in practice: a Baltic lagoon case study

3.2 billion/yr, and avoid up to 65% of the forced migration. In absolute terms, large countries have the largest costs (e.g., USA), but in relative terms, small islands appear most impacted, with or without nourishment