Louise E. Silver

Change in stroke incidence, mortality, case-fatality, severity, and risk factors in Oxfordshire, UK from 1981 to 2004 (Oxford Vascular Study)

BACKGROUND The incidence of stroke is predicted to rise because of the rapidly ageing population. However, over the past two decades, findings of randomised trials have identified several interventions that are effective in prevention of stroke. Reliable data on time-trends in stroke incidence, major risk factors, and use of preventive treatments in an ageing population are required to ascertain whether implementation of preventive strategies can offset the predicted rise in stroke incidence. We aimed to obtain these data. METHODS We ascertained changes in incidence of transient ischaemic attack and stroke, risk factors, and premorbid use of preventive treatments from 1981-84 (Oxford Community Stroke Project; OCSP) to 2002-04 (Oxford Vascular Study; OXVASC). FINDINGS Of 476 patients with transient ischaemic attacks or strokes in OXVASC, 262 strokes and 93 transient ischaemic attacks were incident events. Despite more complete case-ascertainment than in OCSP, age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence of first-ever stroke fell by 29% (relative incidence 0.71, 95% CI 0.61-0.83, p=0.0002). Incidence declined by more than 50% for primary intracerebral haemorrhage (0.47, 0.27-0.83, p=0.01) but was unchanged for subarachnoid haemorrhage (0.83, 0.44-1.57, p=0.57). Thus, although 28% more incident strokes (366 vs 286) were expected in OXVASC due to demographic change alone (33% increase in those aged 75 or older), the observed number fell (262 vs 286). Major reductions were recorded in mortality rates for incident stroke (0.63, 0.44-0.90, p=0.02) and in incidence of disabling or fatal stroke (0.60, 0.50-0.73, p<0.0001), but no change was seen in case-fatality due to incident stroke (17.2% vs 17.8%; age and sex adjusted relative risk 0.85, 95% CI 0.57-1.28, p=0.45). Comparison of premorbid risk factors revealed substantial reductions in the proportion of smokers, mean total cholesterol, and mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures and major increases in premorbid treatment with antiplatelet, lipid-lowering, and blood pressure lowering drugs (all p<0.0001). INTERPRETATION The age-specific incidence of major stroke in Oxfordshire has fallen by 40% over the past 20 years in association with increased use of preventive treatments and major reductions in premorbid risk factors.

Effect of urgent treatment of transient ischaemic attack and minor stroke on early recurrent stroke (EXPRESS study): a prospective population-based sequential comparison.

BACKGROUND The risk of recurrent stroke is up to 10% in the week after a transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke. Modelling studies suggest that urgent use of existing preventive treatments could reduce the risk by 80-90%, but in the absence of evidence many health-care systems make little provision. Our aim was to determine the effect of more rapid treatment after TIA and minor stroke in patients who are not admitted direct to hospital. METHODS We did a prospective before (phase 1: April 1, 2002, to Sept 30, 2004) versus after (phase 2: Oct 1, 2004, to March 31, 2007) study of the effect on process of care and outcome of more urgent assessment and immediate treatment in clinic, rather than subsequent initiation in primary care, in all patients with TIA or minor stroke not admitted direct to hospital. The study was nested within a rigorous population-based incidence study of all TIA and stroke (Oxford Vascular Study; OXVASC), such that case ascertainment, investigation, and follow-up were complete and identical in both periods. The primary outcome was the risk of stroke within 90 days of first seeking medical attention, with independent blinded (to study period) audit of all events. FINDINGS Of the 1278 patients in OXVASC who presented with TIA or stroke (634 in phase 1 and 644 in phase 2), 607 were referred or presented direct to hospital, 620 were referred for outpatient assessment, and 51 were not referred to secondary care. 95% (n=591) of all outpatient referrals were to the study clinic. Baseline characteristics and delays in seeking medical attention were similar in both periods, but median delay to assessment in the study clinic fell from 3 (IQR 2-5) days in phase 1 to less than 1 (0-3) day in phase 2 (p<0.0001), and median delay to first prescription of treatment fell from 20 (8-53) days to 1 (0-3) day (p<0.0001). The 90-day risk of recurrent stroke in the patients referred to the study clinic was 10.3% (32/310 patients) in phase 1 and 2.1% (6/281 patients) in phase 2 (adjusted hazard ratio 0.20, 95% CI 0.08-0.49; p=0.0001); there was no significant change in risk in patients treated elsewhere. The reduction in risk was independent of age and sex, and early treatment did not increase the risk of intracerebral haemorrhage or other bleeding. INTERPRETATION Early initiation of existing treatments after TIA or minor stroke was associated with an 80% reduction in the risk of early recurrent stroke. Further follow-up is required to determine long-term outcome, but these results have immediate implications for service provision and public education about TIA and minor stroke.

Population-based study of event-rate, incidence, case fatality, and mortality for all acute vascular events in all arterial territories (Oxford Vascular Study).

BACKGROUND Acute coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular events have common underlying arterial pathology, risk factors, and preventive treatments, but they are rarely studied concurrently. In the Oxford Vascular Study, we determined the comparative epidemiology of different acute vascular syndromes, their current burdens, and the potential effect of the ageing population on future rates. METHODS We prospectively assessed all individuals presenting with an acute vascular event of any type in any arterial territory irrespective of age in a population of 91 106 in Oxfordshire, UK, in 2002-05. FINDINGS 2024 acute vascular events occurred in 1657 individuals: 918 (45%) cerebrovascular (618 stroke, 300 transient ischaemic attacks [TIA]); 856 (42%) coronary vascular (159 ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 316 non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction, 218 unstable angina, 163 sudden cardiac death); 188 (9%) peripheral vascular (43 aortic, 53 embolic visceral or limb ischaemia, 92 critical limb ischaemia); and 62 unclassifiable deaths. Relative incidence of cerebrovascular events compared with coronary events was 1.19 (95% CI 1.06-1.33) overall; 1.40 (1.23-1.59) for non-fatal events; and 1.21 (1.04-1.41) if TIA and unstable angina were further excluded. Event and incidence rates rose steeply with age in all arterial territories, with 735 (80%) cerebrovascular, 623 (73%) coronary, and 147 (78%) peripheral vascular events in 12 886 (14%) individuals aged 65 years or older; and 503 (54%), 402 (47%), and 105 (56%), respectively, in the 5919 (6%) aged 75 years or older. Although case-fatality rates increased with age, 736 (47%) of 1561 non-fatal events occurred at age 75 years or older. INTERPRETATION The high rates of acute vascular events outside the coronary arterial territory and the steep rise in event rates with age in all territories have implications for prevention strategies, clinical trial design, and the targeting of funds for service provision and research.

Self-Reported Long-Term Needs After Stroke

Background and Purpose— Development of interventions to manage patients with stroke after discharge from the hospital requires estimates of need. This study estimates the prevalence of self-reported need in community-dwelling stroke survivors across the United Kingdom. Methods— We conducted a survey of stroke survivors 1 to 5 years poststroke recruited through Medical Research Council General Practice Research Framework general practices and 2 population-based stroke registers. Levels and type of need were calculated with comparisons among sociodemographic groups, disability level, and cognitive status using the &khgr;2 test or Fisher exact test, as appropriate. Results— From 1251 participants, response rates were 60% (national sample) and 78% (population registers sample) with few differences in levels of reported need between the 2 samples. Over half (51%) reported no unmet needs; among the remainder, the median number of unmet needs was 3 (range, 1 to 13). Proportions reporting unmet clinical needs ranged from 15% to 59%; 54% reported an unmet need for stroke information; 52% reported reduction in or loss of work activities, significantly more from black ethnic groups (P=0.006); 18% reported a loss in income and 31% an increase in expenses with differences by age, ethnic group, and deprivation score. In multivariable analysis, ethnicity (P=0.032) and disability (P=0.014) were associated with total number of unmet needs. Conclusions— Multiple long-term clinical and social needs remain unmet long after incident stroke. Higher levels of unmet need were reported by people with disabilities, from ethnic minority groups, and from those living in the most deprived areas. Development and testing of novel methods to meet unmet needs are required.

Screening for Aspirin Responsiveness After Transient Ischemic Attack and Stroke: Comparison of 2 Point-of-Care Platelet Function Tests With Optical Aggregometry

Background and Purpose— Recent studies suggest that patients who do not respond to aspirin (ASA) therapy may be at increased risk of ischemic vascular events. The availability of simple to use point-of-care (POC) platelet function tests now potentially allows aspirin nonresponsiveness to be identified in routine clinical practice. However, there are very few data on whether the different tests produce consistent results. We therefore compared 2 POC tests (PFA-100 device and the Ultegra-RPFA [RPFA]) with conventional light transmission aggregometry (LTA). Methods— Platelet function was assessed by all 3 tests in 100 patients receiving low-dose ASA therapy after transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke. Results— The incidence of ASA nonresponsiveness was 17% by the RPFA and 22% by the PFA-100, compared with only 5% by LTA (ie, as defined with both arachidonic acid and ADP). Agreement between the RPFA and the PFA-100 and arachidonic acid induced LTA was poor (&kgr;=0.16, 95% CI, −0.08 to 0.39, P=0.11; and &kgr;=0.09 −0.12 to 0.30, P=0.32, respectively). Agreement between the 2 POC tests was also poor (&kgr;=0.14, −0.08 to 0.36, P=0.15). Only 2% of patients were aspirin nonresponders by all 3 tests. Conclusions— The prevalence of apparent ASA nonresponsiveness was higher with both the POC tests than with LTA. However, agreement between the tests was poor and very few patients were ASA nonresponsive by all 3 tests. Aspirin nonresponsiveness is therefore highly test-specific and large prospective studies will be required to determine the prognostic value of each of the separate tests.

Population-Based Study of Incidence and Outcome of Acute Aortic Dissection and Premorbid Risk Factor Control 10-Year Results From the Oxford Vascular Study

Background— Acute aortic dissection is a preventable life-threatening condition. However, there have been no prospective population-based studies of incidence or outcome to inform an understanding of risk factors, strategies for prevention, or projections for future clinical service provision. Methods and Results— We prospectively determined incidence and outcomes of all acute aortic dissections in a population of 92 728 in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, from 2002 to 2012. Among 155 patients with 174 acute aortic events, 54 patients had 59 thoracoabdominal aortic dissections (52 incident events: 6/100 000, 95% confidence interval, 4–7; 37 Stanford type A, 15 Stanford type B; 31 men, mean age=72.0 years). Among patients with type A incident events, 18 (48.6%) died before hospital assessment (61.1% women). The 30-day fatality rate was 47.4% for patients with type A dissections who survived to hospital admission and 13.3% for patients with type B dissections, although subsequent 5-year survival rates were high (85.7% for type A; 83.3% for type B). Even though 67.3% of patients were on antihypertensive drugs, 46.0% of all patients had at least 1 systolic BP ≥180 mm Hg in their primary care records over the preceding 5 years, and the proportion of blood pressures in the hypertensive range (>140/90 mm Hg) averaged 56.0%. Premorbid blood pressure was higher in patients with type A dissections that were immediately fatal than in those who survived to admission (mean/standard deviation pre-event systolic blood pressure=151.2/19.3 versus 137.9/17.9; P<0.001). Conclusions— Uncontrolled hypertension remains the most significant treatable risk factor for acute aortic dissection. Prospective population-based ascertainment showed that hospital-based registries will underestimate not only incidence and case fatality, but also the association with premorbid hypertension.

Direct Assessment of Completeness of Ascertainment in a Stroke Incidence Study

Background and Purpose— Validity of comparisons of stroke incidence between studies or time periods depends on the completeness of ascertainment. Ascertainment cannot be reliably assessed indirectly by statistical methods, such as capture–recapture. We report the first use of direct methods to determine the completeness of different ascertainment strategies in a population-based stroke incidence study (Oxford Vascular Study). Methods— We assessed completeness of 2 different ascertainment strategies: the core methods common to most previous incidence studies and core plus supplementary methods used in some studies (including access to carotid and brain imaging referrals and assessment of patients referred as “transient ischemic attack” or “recurrent stroke”). We assessed completeness of ascertainment in 2 ways. First, we searched anonymized primary care electronic patient records of the whole study population (n=90 542). Second, we interviewed and followed-up a high-risk subset of our study population: all patients who had an acute coronary or peripheral vascular event or a related elective investigation or intervention. Results— 126 strokes were ascertained by the core plus supplementary methods, of which only 108 were identified by the core methods alone. Only 2 additional incident strokes were identified by access to primary care electronic patient records of the whole study population. Assessment and follow-up of 1103 high-risk individuals (5.5% of our total study population aged older than 60 years) identified 16 incident strokes. However, all 16 had already been ascertained by the core plus supplementary methods. Conclusions— The core methods of ascertainment used in some stroke incidence studies lead to significant underascertainment. However, direct assessment of ascertainment suggests that the supplementary methods used in recent studies can lead to near-complete ascertainment.

Lack of reproducibility of assessment of aspirin responsiveness by optical aggregometry and two platelet function tests

The term aspirin-resistance describes the failure of aspirin to inhibit thromboxane A2 production. Many new tests have become available for potentially measuring aspirin responses but some are non-specific and do not isolate COX-1 activity. We previously demonstrated that agreement between two tests (PFA-100® and VerifyNow®-ASA) and light transmission aggregation (LTA) was no greater than would be expected by chance. In this study we re-tested the same patients using identical methods after 1 year to determine whether poor agreement might have been due to assessment in the acute phase and whether the results of the individual tests are consistent over time. Platelet function by all three tests was re-tested in the 72 patients who were alive and still receiving low dose ASA therapy one year after the first tests were performed. On re-testing the prevalence of ASA non-responsiveness compared with baseline was 10% vs 17% by the VerifyNow®-ASA test, 25% vs 22% by the PFA-100®, and 1% vs 5% by LTA. Agreement between the tests at 1 year remained poor (kappas: 0.02–0.17) and only one patient was identified as a non-responder by all three tests, in keeping with the theoretical differences between the tests. Within test comparisons of baseline vs 1 year showed moderate agreement for the PFA-100® (kappa = 0.44, 95% CI 0.19–0.68, p = 0.0006), a fair agreement for VerifyNow®-ASA (kappa = 0.34, 0.04–0.64, p = 0.12) and poor agreement for LTA (kappa = 0.14, −0.11 −0.39, p = 0.24 for ADP; kappa = 0.09, −0.21–0.39, p = 0.41 for arachidonic acid). Agreement between the three tests in identifying aspirin non-responsiveness remained poor in patients who had been taking aspirin for at least 1 year follow-up. Reproducibility over time was no greater than chance for LTA and only moderate for VerifyNow®-ASA and PFA-100®. Lack of consistency over time in identification of apparently non-responsiveness individuals is likely to substantially undermine any ability of these tests to predict risk of recurrent vascular events.

Acute post-stroke blood pressure relative to premorbid levels in intracerebral haemorrhage versus major ischaemic stroke: a population-based study

Summary Background It is often assumed that blood pressure increases acutely after major stroke, resulting in so-called post-stroke hypertension. In view of evidence that the risks and benefits of blood pressure-lowering treatment in acute stroke might differ between patients with major ischaemic stroke and those with primary intracerebral haemorrhage, we compared acute-phase and premorbid blood pressure levels in these two disorders. Methods In a population-based study in Oxfordshire, UK, we recruited all patients presenting with stroke between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2012. We compared all acute-phase post-event blood pressure readings with premorbid readings from 10-year primary care records in all patients with acute major ischaemic stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale >3) versus those with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. Findings Of 653 consecutive eligible patients, premorbid and acute-phase blood pressure readings were available for 636 (97%) individuals. Premorbid blood pressure (total readings 13 244) had been measured on a median of 17 separate occasions per patient (IQR 8–31). In patients with ischaemic stroke, the first acute-phase systolic blood pressure was much lower than after intracerebral haemorrhage (158·5 mm Hg [SD 30·1] vs 189·8 mm Hg [38·5], p<0·0001; for patients not on antihypertensive treatment 159·2 mm Hg [27·8] vs 193·4 mm Hg [37·4], p<0·0001), was little higher than premorbid levels (increase of 10·6 mm Hg vs 10-year mean premorbid level), and decreased only slightly during the first 24 h (mean decrease from <90 min to 24 h 13·6 mm Hg). By contrast with findings in ischaemic stroke, the mean first systolic blood pressure after intracerebral haemorrhage was substantially higher than premorbid levels (mean increase of 40·7 mm Hg, p<0·0001) and fell substantially in the first 24 h (mean decrease of 41·1 mm Hg; p=0·0007 for difference from decrease in ischaemic stroke). Mean systolic blood pressure also increased steeply in the days and weeks before intracerebral haemorrhage (regression p<0·0001) but not before ischaemic stroke. Consequently, the first acute-phase blood pressure reading after primary intracerebral haemorrhage was more likely than after ischaemic stroke to be the highest ever recorded (OR 3·4, 95% CI 2·3–5·2, p<0·0001). In patients with intracerebral haemorrhage seen within 90 min, the highest systolic blood pressure within 3 h of onset was 50 mm Hg higher, on average, than the maximum premorbid level whereas that after ischaemic stroke was 5·2 mm Hg lower (p<0·0001). Interpretation Our findings suggest that systolic blood pressure is substantially raised compared with usual premorbid levels after intracerebral haemorrhage, whereas acute-phase systolic blood pressure after major ischaemic stroke is much closer to the accustomed long-term premorbid level, providing a potential explanation for why the risks and benefits of lowering blood pressure acutely after stroke might be expected to differ. Funding Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research.

Population-Based Study of Incidence, Risk Factors, Outcome, and Prognosis of Ischemic Peripheral Arterial Events Implications for Prevention

Background— There are few published data on the incidence and long-term outcomes of critical limb ischemia, acute limb ischemia, or acute visceral ischemia with which to inform health service planning, to monitor prevention, and to enable risk prediction. Methods and Results— In a prospective population-based study (Oxfordshire, UK; 2002–2012), we determined the incidence and outcome of all acute peripheral arterial events in a population of 92 728. Risk factors were assessed by comparison with the underlying population. A total of 510 acute events occurred in 386 patients requiring 803 interventions. Two hundred twenty-one patients (59.3%) were ≥75 years of age, and 98 (26.3%) were ≥85 years old. Two hundred thirty patients (62.3%) were independent before the event, but 270 (73.4%) were dead or dependent at the 6-month follow-up, and 328 (88.9%) were dead or dependent at 5 years. The 30-day survival was lowest for patients with acute visceral ischemia (28.2%) compared with acute limb ischemia (75.3%) and critical limb ischemia (92.6%; P<0.001). Risk factors (all P<0.001) were hypertension (age- and sex-adjusted risk ratio, 2.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.95–3.90), smoking (adjusted risk ratio, 2.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.37–3.34), and diabetes mellitus (adjusted risk ratio, 3.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.69–5.35), particularly for critical limb ischemia (adjusted risk ratio, 5.96; 95% confidence interval, 3.15–11.26). Two hundred eighty-eight patients (77.2%) had known previous cardiovascular disease, and 361 (96.8%) had vascular risk factors, but only 203 (54.4%) were on an antiplatelet and only 166 (44.5%) were on a statin. Although 260 patients (69.7%) were taking antihypertensives, 42.9% of all blood pressures recorded during the 5 years before the event were >140/90 mm Hg. Of 88 patients (23.6%) with incident cardioembolic events, 62 had known atrial fibrillation (diagnosed before the event), of whom only 14.5% were anticoagulated despite 82.3% having a CHA2DS2VASC score ≥2 without contraindications. Conclusions— The clinical burden of peripheral arterial events is substantial. Although the vast majority of patients have known vascular disease in other territories and multiple treatable risk factors, premorbid control is poor.