Luca Di Corato

Profit Sharing under the Threat of Nationalization

A government bargains a mutually convenient agreement with a multinational corporation to extract a natural resource. The corporation bears the initial investment and earns as a return a share on the profits. The host country provides access and guarantee conditions of operation. Being the investment totally sunk, the corporation must account in its plan not only for uncertainty on market conditions but also for the threat of nationalization. In a real options framework where the government holds an American call option on nationalization we show under which conditions a Nash bargaining is feasible and leads to attain a cooperative agreement maximizing the joint venture surplus. We find that the threat of nationalization does not affect the investment time trigger but only the feasible bargaining set. Finally, we show that the optimal sharing rule results from the way the two parties may differently trade off rents with option value.

Flexible waste management under uncertainty

In this paper, we use stochastic dynamic programming to model the choice of a municipality which has to design an optimal waste management program under uncertainty about the price of recyclables in the secondary market. The municipality can, by undertaking an irreversible investment, adopt a flexible program which integrates the existing landfill strategy with recycling, keeping the option to switch back to landfilling, if profitable. We determine the optimal share of waste to be recycled and the optimal timing for the investment in such a flexible program. We find that adopting a flexible program rather than a non-flexible one, the municipality: (i) invests in recycling capacity under circumstances where it would not do so otherwise; (ii) invests earlier; and (iii) benefits from a higher expected net present value.

Land-Use Change and Solar Energy Production: A Real Option Approach

In this paper a real option model is developed to examine the critical factors affecting the decision to lease agricultural land to a company installing a PV power plant. The leasing payment is certain while the net revenues from agriculture are uncertain. We identify the profit values at which the farmer decides to lease his plot vs. continue farming it. By applying the model to the province of Bologna (Italy), we illustrate the possible land-use change scenarios in this area. We conclude by discussing the importance of PV energy production as a source of income for farmers and its implications from a social perspective.

Land conversion pace under uncertainty and irreversibility: too fast or too slow?

In this paper stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate land conversion decisions taken by a multitude of landholders under uncertainty about the value of environmental services and irreversible development. We study land conversion under competition on the market for agricultural products when voluntary and mandatory measures are combined by the Government to induce adequate participation in a conservation plan. We study the impact of uncertainty on the optimal conversion policy and discuss conversion dynamics under different policy scenarios on the basis of the relative long-run expected rate of deforestation. Interestingly, we show that uncertainty, even if it induces conversion postponement in the short-run, increases the average rate of deforestation and reduces expected time for total conversion in the long run. Finally, we illustrate our findings through some numerical simulations.

An Equilibrium Model of Habitat Conservation Under Uncertainty and Irreversibility

In this paper stochastic dynamic programming is used to investigate habitat conservation by a multitude of landholders under uncertainty about the value of environmental services and irreversible development. We study land conversion under competition on the market for agricultural products when voluntary and mandatory measures are combined by the Government to induce adequate participation in a conservation plan. We analytically determine the impact of uncertainty and optimal policy conversion dynamics and discuss different policy scenarios on the basis of the relative long-run expected rate of deforestation. Finally, some numerical simulations are provided to illustrate our findings.

Multidimensional auctions for long-term procurement contracts with early-exit options: The case of conservation contracts

Conservation contracts, aimed at encouraging preservation and maintenance of natural areas, generally involve long-term obligations. Yet, contractors can find it profitable to breach the agreement when the opportunity cost of keeping their land idle for environmental purposes increases, and contracts do not provide for adequate early termination penalties. In this paper, we study how exit options can affect bidding behavior and the buyer’s and the seller’s expected payoffs in multidimensional procurement auctions. First, we show that bidders’ payoff is lower when competing for contracts with unenforceable contract terms. Second, we show that neglecting the risk of opportunistic behavior by sellers can lead to contract awards that do not maximize the buyer’s potential payoff. Third, we make suggestions about how to mitigate potential misallocations by pointing out the role of eligibility rules and competition among bidders.

Bidding for Conservation Contracts

Contracts providing payments for not developing natural areas, or for removing cropland from production, generally require long-term commitments. Landowners, however, can decide to prematurely terminate the contract when the opportunity cost of complying with conservation requirements increases. The paper investigates how this can affect bidding behavior in multi-dimensional auctions, where agents bid on both the conservation plan and the required payment, when contracts do not provide for sufficiently strong incentives against early exit. Integrating the literature on scoring auctions with that which views non-enforcement of contract terms as a source of real-options, the paper offers the following contributions. First, it is shown that bidders’ expected payoff is higher when facing enforceable project deadlines. Second, that failure to account for the risk of opportunistic behavior could lead to the choice of sellers who will not provide the contracting agency with the highest potential payoff. Finally, we examine the role that eligibility rules and the degree of competition can play in avoiding such potential bias in contract allocation.

Farmland Investments in Africa: What's the Deal?

Large-scale foreign investments in African farmland are rising and may contribute to agricultural productivity growth and economic development. However, host countries sometimes have to wait longer for the economic benefits to arrive than initially expected. In this respect, the timing of project development is crucial and depends on the economic incentives provided to the investors. We therefore present a dynamic stochastic programming model that reflects the typical bargaining situation concerning large land deals in Africa and allows the effect of market- and country-specific risks and taxation to be assessed. The model shows that commodity price volatility increases the value of the land development option, but slows down the land development process. Furthermore, it shows that host country attempts to negotiate fixed commitments to the speed of project development may run counter to the structure of economic incentives at the project site. The applicability of the model is demonstrated for a recent 10,000-hectare cotton project in Ethiopia. Response surface estimations suggest that Ethiopia has negotiated a contract under which it will receive about half the expected total project value, as long as it levies the regular corporate tax rate.